Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Hybrid Trend Arima Model For Forecasting Employment In Tourism Industry In Sri Lanka
Download Hybrid Trend Arima Model For Forecasting Employment In Tourism Industry In Sri Lanka full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Hybrid Trend Arima Model For Forecasting Employment In Tourism Industry In Sri Lanka ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Hybrid Trend - ARIMA Model for Forecasting Employment in Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Hybrid Trend - ARIMA Model for Forecasting Employment in Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism is a fast-growing industry in Sri Lanka; as a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth. In light of that, the study was focused on identifying suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. The trend models; Linear, Quadratic, Growth Curve and Pearl Reed Logistic were tested. The Anderson-Darling test revealed the residuals of all four models were normally distributed, but Ljung-Box Q-test dies not confirm the independence of residuals. Therefore, the de-trended data were further analyzed; the stationary of the series was tested by Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Then the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was tested on each series. The ARIMA model was well fitted for de-trended series of Linear trend model and Growth Curve model. Hence, the residuals of two hybrid models; Linear trend-ARIMA and Growth Curve trend-ARIMA models were tested for model assumptions. It was concluded that both hybrid models; Linear trend-ARIMA and Growth Curve-ARIMA are suitable for forecasting total tourism employment.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Employment of Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting Employment of Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The tourism industry in Sri Lanka is growing over the recent past; increasing arrivals from various destinations. As a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth, but there were very few attempts in forecasting employment in the tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Hence, the objective of the study was to find out the suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Karl Pearson's correlation used to test the correlation between total employment and tourist arrivals. Time series plots used for pattern identification. Simple Regression Model (SRM) and Auto Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) tested for forecasting. The Anderson-Darling test used to test the normality of data and residuals. Ljung-Box Q test, Auto-Correlation Functions (ACF) and Durbin-Watson (DW) test used to test the independence of residuals. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test used to test the stationary of the series. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by both relative and absolute measurements of errors. The SRM was not successful, but the ADLM satisfied the validation criterion. Both relative and absolute measurements of ADLM were very low. Hence, the ADLM is recommended for forecasting total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. The results of this study will be facilitating for decision making and various strategy development related to overcome the surplus and shortfall of employment. It will be useful for workforce planning in both public and the private sector in the tourism industry. It is useful for developing various training programs such as workshops, academic and professional courses related to hospitality management. Further, the finding of the study can be used to assess the economic benefits to the host community in various tourism areas in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka shows the historical development in mainly in two ways. That is the growth of tourist arrivals and income.Tourism impact on the economy of Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on foreign exchange earnings. This has been a general interest of the government. Therefore government needs reliable forecasting to cope with uncertain situations and developing sound strategies to maintain the growth of tourism industry. This study was focused to identify suitable trend model for forecasting international tourism income of Sri Lanka. Monthly income data from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from statistical reports of 2012 and 2013 of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Study concern the period of post war, which is after year 2009. Model fitting was done by utilizing data from January 2009 to April 2012 and data from May 2012 to May 2013 utilized for model verification. Four trend models were tested with log transformation including one linear and three non linear models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling tests for residuals were used as model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Quadratic Trend Model has least MAPE's in model fitting and verification: 0.90% and 1.12 % respectively. MAD and MSE also confirmed the smallest deviation compared with other trend models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling test confirmed the normality of residuals. Also residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. It was concluded that the Quadratic Trend Model with log transformation is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to try other time series techniques namely decomposition techniques, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models etc. to capture the seasonal behavior of the series.
Book Synopsis Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Income forecasting is an essential discipline in planning and other decision-making processes within any business. Fitting a suitable Lin-log model for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka is the objective of the study. Monthly income data utilized from January 2009 to December 2013. Data obtained from annual reports of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with log transformation (Lin-Log Model) was tested on forecasting income at different lags. One way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique was used for overall model testing and t-test was used for individual parameter testing. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling test for residuals and the Durbin-Watson test was used as a model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering adjusted R2 and three measurements of errors. Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Lin-log model was significant at lag 1, 2 and 3. MAPE's of the model in model fitting and verification were 14.86% and 16.63% respectively. Adjusted R2 of the model was 83.6 %. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling tests confirmed the normality of residuals. Also, residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. Durbin-Watson statistic confirms the same. It was concluded that the Lin- log model is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to test Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models also on forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods by : Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala
Download or read book Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods written by Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose: This study compares three different methods to predict foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to Sri Lanka from top-ten countries and also attempts to find the best-fitted forecasting model for each country using five model performance evaluation criteria.Methods: This study employs two different univariate-time-series approaches and one Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to develop models that best explain the tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from the top-ten tourist generating countries. The univariate-time series approach contains two main types of statistical models, namely Deterministic Models and Stochastic Models.Results: The results show that Winter's exponential smoothing and ARIMA are the best methods to forecast tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the results show that the accuracy of the best forecasting model based on MAPE criteria for the models of India, China, Germany, Russia, and Australia fall between 5 to 9 percent, whereas the accuracy levels of models for the UK, France, USA, Japan, and the Maldives fall between 10 to 15 percent.Implications: The overall results of this study provide valuable insights into tourism management and policy development for Sri Lanka. Successful forecasting of FTAs for each market source provide a practical planning tool to destination decision-makers.
Book Synopsis Decomposition Techniques on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Western European Countries to Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Decomposition Techniques on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Western European Countries to Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The forecasting tourist arrival is an essential discipline in planning, resource management, and other decision-making processes in micro and macro level. It facilitates to ensure the sustainable development by minimizing the risk to all aspects. There is a growth of arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could cause a positive or negative effect on the country. To get the maximum benefits from the positive impacts and to overcome the negative impacts, it is vital to forecast arrivals. This study focuses on identifying the highest tourist producing Western European countries and to forecast the arrivals from them. Monthly tourist arrival data from the UK, Germany, France, Netherland, and Italy for the period of, January 2008 to December 2014 was obtained from Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Time Series plots and AutoCorrelation Functions (ACF) were used for pattern recognition of arrivals. It revealed that the arrivals have both trend and seasonal patterns. As such, the Decomposition Techniques were tested for forecasting arrivals. The Residual plots and the Anderson-Darling test were used as the goodness of fit tests in model validation. The residuals of both; additive and multiplicative models for all the countries were found normally distributed and independent. The best fitting model was selected by comparing the relative measurements of errors and the absolute measurements of errors. Measurement errors of all the fitted models were satisfactorily small. Among them, the models with least errors were selected for forecasting. It is concluded that the Additive Decomposition models are the most suitable models for forecasting arrivals from Western European countries. However, arrivals show wave-like patterns with the trend. The Circular Model is a newly introduced technique for modeling wave-like patterns. It is recommended to test the Circular Model on de-trended data to see whether the forecasting accuracy increases.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python by : Jason Brownlee
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python written by Jason Brownlee and published by Machine Learning Mastery. This book was released on 2017-02-16 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Domestic Guest Nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting Domestic Guest Nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing of domestic traveling shows significant improvements. The Hill Country becomes one of the highest occupied regions by the domestic tourist in Sri Lanka. Domestic travelers may travel to Hill Country not only the leisure; there could be many more purposes. The study was focused on forecasting occupancy guest nights of domestic tourist in Hill Country. Monthly data of domestic guest nights for the period of January 2008 to December 2016 were obtained from annual reports of 2008 -2016 published by Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were tested for forecasting. The Anderson-Darling test, Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Ljung-Box Q (LBQ)-test were used to test the validation criterion and fit the model. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by relative and absolute measurements of errors. The results of the study revealed that ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)6 model satisfied all validation criterion. The measurements of errors are very low in validation and verification. The results of the study concluded that the ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)6 model is suitable for forecasting occupancy guest nights. Therefore, future night occupancy can be forecasted by past night occupancy, past errors and seasonal components. The results can be used for strategy development to maximize the benefits of the tourism industry in Hill Country. New product development and increasing the volume of products can be decided by forecasting occupancy guest nights. The results will be useful for financial managers to estimate cash/ credit flow, multiple expenses that will be generated in different departments such as food and beverages, laundry, transport, and rooms. High occupancy increase higher volume of garbage. Therefore, authorities should plan for efficient and effective solid management practices. In addition, they have to work out safety, security and traffic control measures during high occupancy period to protect tourist from various forms of threats and minimize the traffic congestions. The data series of this study shows a wave-like pattern. Therefore, it is recommended to test the Sama Circular Model (SCM), in order to see whether the forecasting ability improves.
Book Synopsis Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting by : Haiyan Song
Download or read book Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2000 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Book Synopsis Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2017 by : Roland Schegg
Download or read book Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2017 written by Roland Schegg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-03 with total page 774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents state-of-the-art research into the application of information and communication technologies to travel and tourism. The range of topics covered is broad, encompassing digital marketing and social media, mobile computing and web design, semantic technologies and recommender systems, augmented and virtual reality, electronic distribution and online travel reviews, MOOC and eLearning, eGovernment, and the sharing economy. There is a particular focus on the development of digital strategies, the impact of big data, and the digital economy. In addition to the description of research advances and innovative ideas, readers will find a number of informative industrial case studies. The contents of the book are based on the 2017 ENTER eTourism conference, held in Rome. The volume will be of interest to all academics and practitioners who wish to keep abreast of the latest developments in eTourism.
Book Synopsis An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka by : Chandranath Amarasekara
Download or read book An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
Book Synopsis Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics by : Álvaro Matias
Download or read book Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics written by Álvaro Matias and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-13 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism economics is partly based on established principles from the economics discipline, but it also incorporates elements from sociology, psychology, organization theory and ecology. It has over the years turned into an appealing multi-disciplinary oriented approach to the understanding of the impacts of leisure time in a modern society, including cultural heritage, sustainable quality of life, and industrial organization of the hospitality industry. The increasing dynamics in the tourist industry and its worldwide effects will continue to attract the attention of both the research and the policy sector in the years to come. Rather than speculating on non-observed facts, there is a clear need for evidence-based research in order to map out the complex dynamics of the tourist industry. The present volume comprises novel studies – mainly of a quantitative-analytical nature – on the supply, demand and contextual aspects of modern tourism. It contains a sound mix of theory, methodology, policy and case studies on various tourism issues in different parts of the world.
Book Synopsis Learning from Megadisasters by : Federica Ranghieri
Download or read book Learning from Megadisasters written by Federica Ranghieri and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While not all natural disasters can be avoided, their impact on a population can be mitigated through effective planning and preparedness. These are the lessons to be learned from Japan's own megadisaster: the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, the fi rst disaster ever recorded that included an earthquake, a tsunami, a nuclear power plant accident, a power supply failure, and a large-scale disruption of supply chains. It is a sad fact that poor communities are often hardest hit and take the longest to recover from disaster. Disaster risk management (DRM) should therefore be taken into account as a major development challenge, and countries must shift from a tradition of response to a culture of prevention and resilience. Learning from Megadisasters: Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake consolidates a set of 36 Knowledge Notes, research results of a joint study undertaken by the Government of Japan and the World Bank. These notes highlight key lessons learned in seven DRM thematic clusters—structural measures; nonstructural measures; emergency response; reconstruction planning; hazard and risk information and decision making; the economics of disaster risk, risk management, and risk fi nancing; and recovery and relocation. Aimed at sharing Japanese cutting-edge knowledge with practitioners and decision makers, this book provides valuable guidance to other disaster-prone countries for mainstreaming DRM in their development policies and weathering their own natural disasters.
Book Synopsis An Introduction To Machine Learning In Quantitative Finance by : Hao Ni
Download or read book An Introduction To Machine Learning In Quantitative Finance written by Hao Ni and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-04-07 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's world, we are increasingly exposed to the words 'machine learning' (ML), a term which sounds like a panacea designed to cure all problems ranging from image recognition to machine language translation. Over the past few years, ML has gradually permeated the financial sector, reshaping the landscape of quantitative finance as we know it.An Introduction to Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance aims to demystify ML by uncovering its underlying mathematics and showing how to apply ML methods to real-world financial data. In this book the authorsFeatured with the balance of mathematical theorems and practical code examples of ML, this book will help you acquire an in-depth understanding of ML algorithms as well as hands-on experience. After reading An Introduction to Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance, ML tools will not be a black box to you anymore, and you will feel confident in successfully applying what you have learnt to empirical financial data!
Author :Asian Development Bank;JICA;UKAID;World Bank Publisher :World Bank Publications ISBN 13 :1464812160 Total Pages :403 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (648 download)
Book Synopsis The WEB of Transport Corridors in South Asia by : Asian Development Bank;JICA;UKAID;World Bank
Download or read book The WEB of Transport Corridors in South Asia written by Asian Development Bank;JICA;UKAID;World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-03-19 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The WEB of Transport Corridors in South Asia develops a holistic appraisal methodology to ensure that economic benefits of investments in transport corridors are amplified and more widely spread, and possible negative impacts such as congestion, environmental degradation, and other unintended consequences are minimized. It focuses on South Asia—not only as one of the world’s most populous and poorest regions—but as a hinge between East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The book is aimed at politicians, technocrats, civil society organizations, and businesses. It presents case studies of past and recent corridor initiatives, provides rigorous analysis of the literature on the spatial impact of corridors, and offers assessments of corridor investment projects supported by international development organizations. A series of spotlights examines such issues as private sector co-investment; the impacts of corridors on small enterprises and women; and issues with implementing cross-border corridors. The 'WEB' in the title stands for both the wider economic benefits (WEB) that transport corridors are expected to generate and the complex web of transport corridors that has been proposed. The appraisal methodology introduced in this book shows how the web of interconnected elements around corridors can be disentangled and the most promising corridor proposals—the ones with the greatest wider economic benefits—can be selected.
Book Synopsis Applications of Robotics in Industry Using Advanced Mechanisms by : Janmenjoy Nayak
Download or read book Applications of Robotics in Industry Using Advanced Mechanisms written by Janmenjoy Nayak and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-09-03 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shares important findings on the application of robotics in industry using advanced mechanisms, including software and hardware. It presents a collection of recent trends and research on various advanced computing paradigms such as soft computing, robotics, smart automation, power control, and uncertainty analysis. The book constitutes the proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Application of Robotics in Industry using Advanced Mechanisms (ARIAM2019), which offered a platform for sharing original research findings, presenting innovative ideas and applications, and comparing notes on various aspects of robotics. The contributions highlight the latest research and industrial applications of robotics, and discuss approaches to improving the smooth functioning of industries. Moreover, they focus on designing solutions for complex engineering problems and designing system components or processes to meet specific needs, with due considerations for public health and safety, including cultural, societal, and environmental considerations. Taken together, they offer a valuable resource for researchers, scientists, engineers, professionals and students alike.
Book Synopsis Water Demand Management by : David Butler
Download or read book Water Demand Management written by David Butler and published by IWA Publishing. This book was released on 2005-12-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A common characteristic of water demand in urban areas worldwide is its inexorable rise over many years; continued growth is projected over coming decades. The chief influencing factors are population growth and migration, together with changes in lifestyle, demographic structure and the possible effects of climate change (the detailed implications of climate change are not yet clear, and anyway will depend on global location, but must at least increase the uncertainty in security of supply). This is compounded by rapid development, creeping urbanization and, in some places, rising standards of living. Meeting this increasing demand from existing resources is self-evidently an uphill struggle, particularly in water stressed/scarce regions in the developed and developing world alike. There are typically two potential responses: either "supply-side" (meeting demand with new resources) or "demand-side" (managing consumptive demand itself to postpone or avoid the need to develop new resources). There is considerable pressure from the general public, regulatory agencies, and some governments to minimise the impacts of new supply projects (e.g. building new reservoirs or inter-regional transfer schemes), implying the emphasis should be shifted towards managing water demand by best utilising the water that is already available. Water Demand Management has been prepared by the academic, government and industry network WATERSAVE. The concept of the book is to assemble a comprehensive picture of demand management topics ranging from technical to social and legal aspects, through expert critical literature reviews. The depth and breadth of coverage is a unique contribution to the field and the book will be an invaluable information source for practitioners and researchers, including water utility engineers/planners, environmental regulators, equipment and service providers, and postgraduates. Contents Water consumption trends and demand forecasting techniques The technology, design and utility of rainwater catchment systems Understanding greywater treatment Water conservation products Water conservation and sewerage systems An introduction to life cycle and rebound effects in water systems Developing a strategy for managing losses in water distribution networks Demand management in developing countries Drivers and barriers for water conservation and reuse in the UK The economics of water demand management Legislation and regulation mandating and influencing the efficient use of water in England and Wales Consumer reactions to water conservation policy instruments Decision support tools for water demand management
