Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
How Important Is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy
Download How Important Is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online How Important Is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis How Important is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy? by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book How Important is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy? written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wall Street Journal rates analysts on the basis of past earnings forecast accuracy. These analyst ratings are important to practitioners who believe that past accuracy portends future accuracy. An alternative way to assess the likelihood of quot;morequot; or quot;lessquot; accurate forecasts in the future is to model the analyst characteristics related to the accuracy of individual analysts' earnings forecasts. No evidence yet exists, however, as to whether an analyst characteristics model is better than a past accuracy model for distinguishing more accurate from less accurate earnings forecasters. I show that a simple model of past accuracy performs as well for this purpose as a more complex model based on analyst characteristics. The findings are robust to annual and quarterly forecasts and pertain to estimation and prediction tests. The evidence suggests that practitioners' focus on past accuracy is not misplaced: It is as important as five analyst characteristics combined.
Book Synopsis Is Analyst Forecast Accuracy Associated with Accounting Information Use? by : Ruth Ann McEwen
Download or read book Is Analyst Forecast Accuracy Associated with Accounting Information Use? written by Ruth Ann McEwen and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1994, the AICPA?s Special Committee on Financial Reporting recommended that participants in business reporting can improve the reporting process by focusing on user needs and finding cost-effective ways of aligning business reports with those needs. The Committee noted that professional financial analysts are among the most important users of business reporting and that an examination of their accounting information needs would provide useful insight to the profession. Further, the Committee suggested that an investigation of the link between information usage and decision quality could provide a starting point for determining whether currently reported business information is relevant. The current study examines the relation between the forecast accuracy of financial analysts and specific accounting information items used during financial statement analysis. Findings indicate that relatively more accurate analysts tend to emphasize different information items prior to issuing an earnings forecast than do less accurate analysts. Study results also provide evidence of an association between specific accounting information items and decision quality.
Book Synopsis Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : James Claus
Download or read book Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by James Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Tanja Klettke
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast by : Wenjuan Xie
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by : Patricia C. O'brien
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2016-09-26 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Second, because the error terms in the fixed effects model are severely non normal, a non-parametric approach is taken. The non-parametric tests compare, for each industry, the observed distribution of analysts' average (through time) ranks with the distribution which would be expected if all analysts are alike, and each year is an independent observation. The non-parametric tests fail to reject the hypothesis that the observed distribution is identical to the expected distribution, in eight of the nine industries. Continuing research will investigate the source of the differences in the single industry in which the null hypothesis is rejected. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Book Synopsis Is There Safety in Numbers? The Effects of Forecast Accuracy and Forecast Boldness on Financial Analysts' Credibility with Investors by : Kathryn Kadous
Download or read book Is There Safety in Numbers? The Effects of Forecast Accuracy and Forecast Boldness on Financial Analysts' Credibility with Investors written by Kathryn Kadous and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports the results of an experiment that examines how analyst forecast accuracy (i.e., how close an analyst's forecast is to realized earnings) and forecast boldness (i.e. how far the analyst's forecast is from the consensus forecast) affect the analyst's perceived credibility and investors' willingness to rely on and purchase the analyst's future reports. We hypothesize and find that forecast boldness magnifies the effect of forecast accuracy on these variables. That is, analysts who provide accurate, bold forecasts experience more positive consequences than those who provide accurate, non-bold forecasts, and analysts who provide inaccurate, bold forecasts experience more negative consequences than those who provide inaccurate, non-bold forecasts. We also find that these effects are not symmetric - the negative consequences of being bold and inaccurate exceed positive consequences of being bold and accurate. Our results are not sensitive to the level of the analyst's prior reputation.
Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by : Patricia C O'Brien
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C O'Brien and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed analysis of the accuracy of forecasts made by individual analysts across nine different industries. It explores the factors that contribute to forecast accuracy and provides insights into how these factors can be used to improve forecasting performance. The author, Patricia C. O'Brien, is a well-respected economist and her research has significant implications for businesses and investors who rely on forecasts in their decision-making processes. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Book Synopsis Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : Wenjuan Xie
Download or read book Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the impact of unidentifiable individual differences among financial analysts on the cross section of their earnings forecast accuracy. Various psychological factors, such as decision style and personality traits, are documented to impact individuals' decision making. However, analysts' individual differences in such psychological factors are not captured by identifiable personal attributes employed in finance literature, such as years of experience. In this paper, we employ the concept of analyst fixed effects to control for unidentifiable individual differences. Examining the factors related to forecast accuracy, we document that controlling for these unidentifiable analyst-specific effects improves model fitting, and changes the explanatory power of some of the traditionally used independent variables in the literature. We confirm that the analyst's firm-specific experience, the intensity of following that a firm receives, and the forecast horizon are all significantly and consistently related to forecast accuracy. However, we find that analyst general experience and coverage complexity lose explanatory power when individual differences are controlled for. Furthermore, we document that analyst general experience is not monotonically associated with better accuracy, and that analysts only benefit from increased general experience during the early to middle stages of their career. Finally, we observe that when analysts' individual differences are controlled for, the boldness of a forecast revision is no longer a significant determinant of the improvement of accuracy. This is one of the first studies to highlight the necessity of recognizing individual differences among financial analysts. We argue that this treatment advances the literature of analyst forecast performance, and closely relates financial agents' decision making to psychology theories of decision style and personality.
Book Synopsis Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Analysts' Forecasts by : Jahidur Md Rahman
Download or read book Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Analysts' Forecasts written by Jahidur Md Rahman and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study conducts a comprehensive review of the literature published during 1996- 2017 to identify the factors that affect the accuracy of financial analysts' forecasts. We organize our review around three main groups, namely, (a) drivers of analyst forecast accuracy, (b) quality financial reporting, and (c) accounting standards. Among the several factors found, some factors (experience of the analyst, earnings quality, audit quality, IFRS adoption, and annual report readability) have a positive relationship with the accuracy of analysts' forecasts while others (politically connected firms, firms audited by Non-Big 4, and international GAAP differences) have a negative relationship. Our findings contribute to future research by examining the factors affecting analyst forecast accuracy from different perspectives, which will prove to be useful for academicians, regulators, investors, and financial analysts.
Book Synopsis A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Praveen Sinha
Download or read book A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Praveen Sinha and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research re-examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts by comparing their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by O'Brien (1990), Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research, and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, et al, 1978; O'Brien, 1988; Brown, 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist.
Book Synopsis Do Analysts Sacrifice Forecast Accuracy for Informativeness? by : Henock Louis
Download or read book Do Analysts Sacrifice Forecast Accuracy for Informativeness? written by Henock Louis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze whether analysts sacrifice forecast accuracy for informativeness by examining: (1) the association between analysts' deviations from management guidance and earnings management; (2) the effect of the deviations on analyst forecast accuracy; and (3) the effect of the deviations on prices. The evidence indicates that analysts apparently deviate from management guidance to correct for perceived earnings management. Although the deviations reduce the analysts' forecast accuracy, they improve the informativeness of their earnings estimates. More specifically, they bring the analysts' estimates closer to the true (unmanaged) earnings number and reduce mispricing. An implicit assumption in the literature is that more accurate analyst forecasts (i.e., earnings estimates that are closer to the actual reported earnings) are better for investors, and that analysts' primary objective is to forecast the reported (managed) earnings number accurately. Our analysis suggests that this is not necessarily the case and that an inaccurate forecast can actually be more informative than an accurate one. Prior studies on analyst deviations from management guidance focus on analysts' incentives to provide earnings estimates that managers can beat. These studies implicitly assume that analysts side with management against the interests of their clients. Our analysis indicates that analysts could also deviate from management guidance to provide useful valuation information to their clients.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis Rational Inattention and Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : Phong Truong
Download or read book Rational Inattention and Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by Phong Truong and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Facing limited attention constraints, financial analysts must strategically choose which information to pay attention to and which information to ignore when making earnings forecasts. I rely on rational inattention theory to develop and test hypotheses on factors that determine analyst attention and how analyst attention affects forecast accuracy. I construct a novel measure of attention that varies across stocks followed by the same analyst during the same fiscal period. I find that analyst attention is decreasing in the marginal cost of paying attention and that analysts allocate attention to firms with earnings that are difficult to forecast, suggesting that analysts suffer from a limited attention constraint. Importantly, I find that attentive analysts are more accurate, and the effect of attention is larger for inexperienced analysts and stocks with highly volatile earnings. Finally, I find that attentive analysts are less likely to revise forecasts upwards and are less optimistic even after controlling for firm information environment and analyst ability.
Book Synopsis The Effect of a Change in Analyst Composition on Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : John Nowland
Download or read book The Effect of a Change in Analyst Composition on Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by John Nowland and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior research has shown improvements in analysts' forecast accuracy around various events (e.g. new disclosure regulations or cross-listings), but these studies do not consider a change in the composition and ability of analysts providing forecasts over time. By studying foreign firms cross-listing on U.S. stock exchanges, we find that analyst composition changes by over 50 percent during the three-year period around cross-listing. We show that cross-listing is associated with a shift away from analysts who are less accurate forecasters and toward analysts who are more accurate forecasters. This shift in analyst composition accounts for a significant improvement of 9.5 percent in analyst forecast accuracy. In addition, we document that changes in both analyst ability and public information disclosure affect analyst forecast accuracy around cross-listing. Our results indicate that researchers should control for changes in analyst composition and ability when measuring the impact of specific events on analyst forecast accuracy.
Book Synopsis Creating a Smarter Conditional Consensus Forecast by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Creating a Smarter Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics over the August 1998 to March 2007 time period. We pose four research questions: (1) Does forecast accuracy persist?; (2) What are the determinants of such persistence?; (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus?; and (4) Is a quot;smartquot; consensus based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? We show that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term, past accuracy and the overall ability in forecasting all statistics. That is, analyst long-term track record is more important than short-term track record, and track record in forecasting other statistics (general ability) is more important than track record in forecasting the macroeconomic statistic in question (specific ability). We demonstrate that a smart consensus conditioned on forecasts of analysts with superior long-term, general ability outperforms commonly reported mean and median consensus forecasts.
