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Housing Prices And The Public Disclosure Of Flood Risk
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Book Synopsis Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk by : Athanasios Votsis
Download or read book Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk written by Athanasios Votsis and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case with the risks of natural processes, especially in coastal areas where the amenity dimension may dominate the risk aspect. Flood risk disclosure through maps is a policy instrument aimed at addressing this situation. We assess its effectiveness by identifying whether such maps induce a price differential for single family coastal dwellings in three Finnish cities, and by estimating the discount per square meter for various flooding probabilities (return times). The estimations indicate a significant price drop after the information disclosure for properties located in flood-prone areas as indicated by the maps. In the case of sea flooding information in Helsinki, the price effect is sensitive to the communicated probability of flooding. Overall, the discussed policy instrument appears to have functioned as intended, correcting information gaps and asymmetries related to flood risk. The identified effect is spatially selective; it caused a short-term localized shock in market prices in conjunction with some reorientation of demand from risky coastal properties towards ones that represent a similar level of coastal amenity, but are less risky in terms of flooding. This hints at the potential for incorporating the shocks associated with flood events or risk information into broader-scoped urban modelling and simulation. Similarly, the reasonable accuracy with which the housing market processes the additional information shows a potential for wider use of the disclosure of non-obvious risks in real estate markets. In the case of adapting to climate change risks, additional uncertainties may make the disclosure instrument less effective, if used as a single tool.
Book Synopsis Flood Risk and the U.S. Housing Market by : Howard Kunreuther
Download or read book Flood Risk and the U.S. Housing Market written by Howard Kunreuther and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As recent hurricane seasons have made clear, flooding can cause a great deal of property damage and human suffering. Indeed, flooding causes the most damage of any natural disaster in the United States and worldwide and affects the greatest number of people. Yet today most households are uninsured, or underinsured, against flood losses and may incorrectly perceive that if they suffer property damage, government agencies and programs will significantly aid them financially soon after the disaster. In reality there is limited financial aid provided by the public sector to disaster victims and it is often delayed in the post-disaster period. This paper synthesizes existing research on the nature of flood risk and the housing market in the United States with a particular focus on the single-family market segment, a large category of the wealth on household balance sheets. We also consider flood risk externalities affecting the housing market more broadly.
Book Synopsis Empirical Studies of the Effect of Flood Risk on Housing Prices by : Philip T. Chao
Download or read book Empirical Studies of the Effect of Flood Risk on Housing Prices written by Philip T. Chao and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Principles and Guidlines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies (P & G) provide that the reduction of flood damages should not be claimed as a benefit of evacuation or relocation because they are already accounted for in the fair market value of floodplain properties. Corps guidance for implementing the P & G explains further that "it would be double-counting to also consider the costs of the physical damages." Yet the assumption that the value of floodplain properties is discounted for flood damages has never been empirically established. This study reviewed existing academic studies and conducted two case studies of hedonic price models. Hedonic price models measure the effect of property attributes upon the overall property value. While the findings are insufficient to show that properties are or are not discounted for flood damages, they show that many attributes affect floodplain property values (e.g., flood insurance, location within the floodplain and income) and that these attributes likely will vary from community to community. These findings bring into question the assumption that all properties are discounted for flood damages.
Book Synopsis Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics by : Laura A. Bakkensen
Download or read book Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics written by Laura A. Bakkensen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing market dynamics? This paper provides both theoretical and empirical evidence: First, we build a dynamic housing market model with heterogeneity in home types, consumer preferences, and flood risk beliefs. The model incorporates a Bayesian learning mechanism allowing agents to update their beliefs depending on whether flood events occur. Second, to quantify these elements, we implement a door-to-door survey campaign in Rhode Island. The results confirm significant heterogeneity in flood risk beliefs, and that selection into coastal homes is driven by both lower risk perceptions and higher coastal amenity values. Third, we calibrate the model to simulate coastal home price trajectories given a future flood risk increase and policy reform across different belief scenarios. Accounting for heterogeneity increases the projected home price declines due to sea level rise by a factor of four, and increases market volatility by an order of magnitude. Studies assuming homogeneous rational expectations may thus substantially underestimate the home price implications of future climate risks. We conclude by highlighting potential implications for welfare and flood policy.
Book Synopsis Financial Management of Flood Risk by : OECD
Download or read book Financial Management of Flood Risk written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disasters present a broad range of human, social, financial, economic and environmental impacts, with potentially long-lasting effects. This report applies the lessons from the OECD’s analysis of disaster risk financing practices and its risk guidance to the specific case of floods.
Book Synopsis Reading about Flood Risk in the News by : Jeanne Sorin Le Guevel
Download or read book Reading about Flood Risk in the News written by Jeanne Sorin Le Guevel and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Thriving written by Mark Roberts and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2023-05-18 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1970 and 2021, the number of people living in cities increased from 1.19 billion to 4.46 billion, while the Earth’s surface temperature climbed by 1.19 degrees Celsius above its preindustrial levels. Because of the prosperity they helped generate, cities have been a major cause of this climate change. However, it is also in cities that many of the solutions to the climate crisis—in terms of both adaptation and mitigation—will be found, not least because by 2050, almost 70 percent of the world’s population will call cities home. As such, cities are the key to arguably the greatest public policy challenge of our times. To take stock of how green, how resilient, and how inclusive cities globally are today, Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate defines a global typology of more than 10,000 cities. It finds that there is wide variation in how green, resilient, and inclusive cities are around the world. It asks how climate change impacts cities and, conversely, how cities affect climate. Vicious cycles in development could occur as cities become more vulnerable to extreme events and the challenges compound and cascade. Finally, this report provides a compass for policy makers on policies that can help cities not only survive but also thrive in the face of the perils of climate change. Policy makers can and must act now to chart a more sustainable trajectory.
Book Synopsis Urban Metabolism and Climate Change by : Rahul Bhadouria
Download or read book Urban Metabolism and Climate Change written by Rahul Bhadouria and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-23 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a basic understanding and state-of-the-art of urban metabolism. Urban centres are increasingly challenged by population increase and the resultant environmental concerns including the urban sprawl and climate change. Different patterns of urbanization contribute to the changing climate via. differences in their urban metabolism represented by energy and matter. Urban metabolic studies in terms of energy and material inflows, outflows, and stocks can be associated with traditional evaluation techniques to help assess the magnitude and potential effects of variety of environmental challenges the world is facing today. Urban centres are critical real time observatories that indicate the impact anthropogenic activities have on global biogeochemical cycles. Urban processes have significant and lasting impacts on the global carbon budget. The technological and infrastructural advancements have fuelled an increase in urban inputs and outputs of material and energy. Therefore, more sustainable approaches need to be adopted in changing scenarios for urban planning, particularly for sustainable resource utilization and better waste management practices. The book emphasises on the sustainability in urban metabolism, sustainable urban planning, ecosystem services, and disaster resilience to provide an interdisciplinary understanding of urban metabolism. The book also identifies an urgent need to develop new methodological approaches for real time and reliable evaluation of urban metabolism.
Book Synopsis Spatial Spillovers in the Pricing of Flood Risk by : Carolin Pommeranz
Download or read book Spatial Spillovers in the Pricing of Flood Risk written by Carolin Pommeranz and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we analyse how, and to what extent, direct and indirect effects (spatial spillovers) matter when estimating price effects for a property location in a flood zone. Unlike the previous literature, we show the importance of indirect effects resulting from a neighbourhood being situated in a flood zone. Additionally, the type of indirect effects (global vs. local) needs to be determined theoretically or empirically using an appropriate spatial model comparison approach. Using the Bayesian model comparison for data related to the flood-prone city of Dresden, Germany, we find strong evidence for a spatial Durbin error model which controls for local spillover effects. These indirect price effects amount to -6.5% for houses and -4.8% for condominiums. However, direct effects diminish when controlling for spatial spillovers. Our results are mostly robust across different model specifications and risk-adjusted prices that include future insurance costs, thus providing evidence of the importance of addressing indirect effects in the form of local spillovers in the analysis of flood zone effects. Ignoring indirect flood effects when formulating policy can lead to flood management that is inefficient and not cost-effective, as the economic consequences of flood are underestimated.
Book Synopsis Impact of Flood Risk on House Prices by : Nam Bui
Download or read book Impact of Flood Risk on House Prices written by Nam Bui and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising sea levels are threatening populations that live in shoreline cities. The southern section of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam is a newly established urban area in which lively real estate transactions are taking place. However, certain sections of the area are frequently put under the threat of inundation. Spatial econometric models were applied to analyse residential property asking prices, as advertised, within the southern region of HCMC to examine the effect of flood risk on residential property asking prices. Asking prices for flood-prone properties were supposed to be discounted compared to the non-flooded ones. Causes of price reduction that were studied are flood risk awareness, the impact of a large flood event, and constant exposure to floods. This research contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, the effect of pluvial flood risk is found similar to that of large and irregular floods, which have been the focus of earlier studies. Second, the inclusion of legal status as a control variable accounts for the characteristic of the Vietnamese housing market. Third, several cultural differences between the Vietnamese and Westerners' way of purchasing properties are examined.
Book Synopsis Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability by : Andrea Deghi
Download or read book Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability written by Andrea Deghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Book Synopsis Market Response to Flood Risk by : Haoying Wang
Download or read book Market Response to Flood Risk written by Haoying Wang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents one of the first studies on flood risk evaluation in the US Northeast - a region where we are likely going to see increasing precipitation variability and associated risk of flood in the coming decades. In the paper, a spatial difference-in-differences framework based on floodplain boundary discontinuities is proposed to control for unobserved heterogeneities. Using parcel-level data from Juniata County and Perry County in Pennsylvania, the paper finds that on average there is a 5-6 percent housing value reduction due to exposure to 1 percent annual chance of flooding within the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) 100-year flood zone. For Juniata County, it shows that on average there is a $3.28/sqft (in 2015 USD) discount for a full-time SFR (single family residential) property located within the flood zone. For an average housing unit of 1430 sqft living space in the sample, the estimate translates to a $4690 housing value reduction. For Perry County, the corresponding estimates are $4.00/sqft (in 2015 USD) and $6320 for an average housing unit of 1580 sqft. The paper also shows that with similar specifications, a standard hedonic price model underestimates the flood risk impact on housing value by a substantial amount as a result of failing to control for unobserved heterogeneities.
Download or read book NBS Special Publication written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values? by : Miyuki Hino
Download or read book Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values? written by Miyuki Hino and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Floods and other climate hazards pose a widespread and growing threat to housing and infrastructure around the world. By incorporating climate risk into asset prices, markets can discourage excessive development in hazardous areas. However, the extent to which markets actually price these risks remains poorly understood. Here we measure the effect of information about flood risk on residential property values in the United States. Using multiple empirical approaches and two decades of sales data covering the universe of homes in the US, we find little evidence that housing markets fully price information about flood risk in aggregate. However, the price penalty for flood risk is larger for commercial buyers and in states where sellers must disclose information about flood risk to potential buyers, suggesting that policies to improve risk communication could influence market outcomes. Our findings indicate that floodplain homes in the US are currently overvalued by a total of $34B, raising concerns about the stability of real estate markets as climate risks become more salient and severe.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Risk Perception, Flooding, and Housing Market Outcomes by : Julian Plough
Download or read book Three Essays on Risk Perception, Flooding, and Housing Market Outcomes written by Julian Plough and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the impacts of a changing climate is the increase in frequency of extreme weather events, many associated with flooding. Flooding incidence can take various forms determined by individual contexts. These events can be highly localized nuisances or geographically ubiquitous, associated with coastal or inland storms, functions of local infrastructure or residential location, and more. Vulnerability to flooding is a product of these physical realities as well as social interactions. Wealth and federal and local administrative systems can provide resiliencies, and informational systems can mediate opportunities for individuals to assess and update their perceptions of risk. Poorer and lower lying localities and the individuals who reside in them often face different sets of constraints than wealthier and physically less-at-risk counterparts. Behavioral responses to flooding incidence are therefore responses to an amalgamation of realities, both constant and changing. Choices related to residential location provide key insight into the decision- making processes that individuals employ in these complex contexts. The policy-making context surrounding flooding and projected climate change revolves around not only projections of changes in physical incidence, but also the assumed behavioral response to that risk. It is crucial to assess now, in response to extant weather events and frequency changes, behavior that lends insight into the degree to which individuals and populations adapt and adjust. Current examples of resilience, vulnerability, and the lines upon which these determinations fall can provide instrumental inputs to guide forward-looking policy decisions. In this dissertation I focus on housing decisions in three major Gulf Coastal cities as a window into the updating and adaptation processes of individuals that scale into shared behavior. In my first paper I estimate the impact of hurricanes in Houston, TX and Tampa, FL on home transaction prices using a causal difference-in-difference strategy. In this paper I find inconsistent causal estimates of the impacts of flooding and flood risk by market and storm. In my second paper I employ a refined measure of flooding events using the National Flood Insurance Program’s redacted claims dataset and recover consistent causal impacts of localized flood damage claims in Houston, TX. In these first two paper I use transaction prices to make market-based welfare inferences, however the decision to sell or to remain in place presents a story of adaption to itself. In my final paper I employ a survival analysis of the home-sale decision post- Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, LA where I find that income and race are linked to differential sale rates after the experience of the storm. In this dissertation I use three novel datasets, propose repeatable methods for future work, and employ several econometric and statistical lenses to lend insight into behavioral changes in flooding-related housing decisions that can inform policy
Book Synopsis Do Seller Disclosures Affect Property Values? Buyer Information and the Hedonic Model by : Jaren C. Pope
Download or read book Do Seller Disclosures Affect Property Values? Buyer Information and the Hedonic Model written by Jaren C. Pope and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The hedonic method is widely used to infer the value of environmental amenities that are bundled with real property. The interpretation of hedonic prices as marginal values requires that households are "fully informed." Yet, there is evidence that buyers are often less informed than sellers. A graphical illustration in this study suggests that asymmetric information between buyers and sellers can affect hedonic prices. This intuition is confirmed by a quasi-random experiment that exploits spatial and information discontinuities stemming from a seller disclosure for flood zones. Results suggest a 4% decline in housing prices in flood zones after disclosures commenced.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Flood Discount by : Tom Gillespie
Download or read book Estimating the Flood Discount written by Tom Gillespie and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flood risk is the most pervasive and costly natural hazard globally. With significant increases in flood risk expected over coming decades, future exposure to flood risk and associated costs will depend heavily on how private consumption decisions respond to new information about risk. We exploit a one-off national information treatment in the form of the release in 2011, for the first time, of detailed flood risk maps for Ireland, to test the effect of new information about flood risk on housing prices across an entire national housing market. We combine rich dwelling-level information on over 475,000 dwellings for the period 2006-2015 with detailed official data relating to flood risk, events and defences. Our core finding is that information matters. The price of housing responded dramatically to the release of flood risk maps at the end of 2011, with the emergence of a 4% price discount for dwellings at risk of flooding.
