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Housing Prices And Expectations
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Book Synopsis Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom by : Pascal Towbin
Download or read book Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom written by Pascal Towbin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-30 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Housing Market Expectations by : Theresa Kuchler
Download or read book Housing Market Expectations written by Theresa Kuchler and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the recent literature on the determinants and effects of housing market expectations. We begin by providing an overview of existing surveys that elicit housing market expectations, and discuss how those surveys may be expanded in the future. We then document a number of facts about time-series and cross-sectional patterns of housing market expectations in these survey data, before summarizing research that has studied how individuals form these expectations. Housing market expectations are strongly influenced by recently observed house price changes, by personally or locally observed house price changes, by house price changes observed in a person's social network, and by current home ownership status. Similarly, experienced house price volatility affects expectations uncertainty. We also summarize recent work that documents how differences in housing market expectations translate into differences in individuals' housing market behaviors, including their home purchasing and mortgage financing decisions. Finally, we highlight research on how expectations affect aggregate outcomes in the housing market.
Book Synopsis A Wealth of Common Sense by : Ben Carlson
Download or read book A Wealth of Common Sense written by Ben Carlson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple guide to a smarter strategy for the individual investor A Wealth of Common Sense sheds a refreshing light on investing, and shows you how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn't mean it requires a complex strategy; in fact, this false premise is the driving force behind many investors' market "mistakes." Information is important, but understanding and perspective are the keys to better decision-making. This book describes the proper way to view the markets and your portfolio, and show you the simple strategies that make investing more profitable, less confusing, and less time-consuming. Without the burden of short-term performance benchmarks, individual investors have the advantage of focusing on the long view, and the freedom to construct the kind of portfolio that will serve their investment goals best. This book proves how complex strategies essentially waste these advantages, and provides an alternative game plan for those ready to simplify. Complexity is often used as a mechanism for talking investors into unnecessary purchases, when all most need is a deeper understanding of conventional options. This book explains which issues you actually should pay attention to, and which ones are simply used for an illusion of intelligence and control. Keep up with—or beat—professional money managers Exploit stock market volatility to your utmost advantage Learn where advisors and consultants fit into smart strategy Build a portfolio that makes sense for your particular situation You don't have to outsmart the market if you can simply outperform it. Cut through the confusion and noise and focus on what actually matters. A Wealth of Common Sense clears the air, and gives you the insight you need to become a smarter, more successful investor.
Book Synopsis The Housing Boom and Bust by : Thomas Sowell
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Book Synopsis Heterogeneity in Households' Expectations of Housing Prices by : Erik Hjalmarsson
Download or read book Heterogeneity in Households' Expectations of Housing Prices written by Erik Hjalmarsson and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expectations about future housing prices are arguably an important determinant of actual housing prices, and an important input in decisions on whether and how to transact in the housing market. Using novel micro-level survey data on Swedish households, we analyse households' expectations of housing prices and how these expectations relate to the characteristics of the respondents. Results show that age is significantly related to housing-price expectations, with the youngest households - whose adulthood largely corresponds to the extended period of rapid housing-price growth in Sweden - having the highest housing-price expectations, thus lending support to the hypothesis that expectations are influenced by personal experiences. Our findings suggest that aggregate measures of expectations might hide important features of the data, which could be of interest to policy makers when choosing regulatory actions or formulating macroprudential policies.
Book Synopsis Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target by : Klaus Adam
Download or read book Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target written by Klaus Adam and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. households' housing price expectations deviate systematically from rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly; (ii) following housing price changes, expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact; (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about capital gains when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of capital gain extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding capital gain extrapolation into a sticky price model featuring a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes the optimal inflation target to increase strongly as the natural rate falls.
Book Synopsis Experience and Expectations by : Susan Collins
Download or read book Experience and Expectations written by Susan Collins and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hot Property written by Rob Nijskens and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-14 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Book Synopsis expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market by : dennis r. capozza, paul j. seguin
Download or read book expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market written by dennis r. capozza, paul j. seguin and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis House Price Expectations by : Niklas Gohl
Download or read book House Price Expectations written by Niklas Gohl and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility by : Jim Clayton
Download or read book Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility written by Jim Clayton and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is derived and combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, over the 1979-1991 sample period. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.
Book Synopsis The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences by : Leo Grebler
Download or read book The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences written by Leo Grebler and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do House Price Expectations Affect the Housing Market? by : 黃華興
Download or read book Do House Price Expectations Affect the Housing Market? written by 黃華興 and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumption, House Prices and Expectations by : Orazio Attanasio
Download or read book Consumption, House Prices and Expectations written by Orazio Attanasio and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households' wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, and that the consumption of homeowners and renters are equally aligned with the house price cycle. This suggests that neither the wealth nor the collateral channels have been the principal cause of the relationship between house prices and consumption - instead, the most important factor is likely to have been common causality.
Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy by : Avi Goldfarb
Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.
Book Synopsis Long Run Expectations, Learning and the U.S. Housing Market by : Daniel L. Tortorice
Download or read book Long Run Expectations, Learning and the U.S. Housing Market written by Daniel L. Tortorice and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines key facts about the U.S. housing market. The price to rent ratio is highly volatile and significantly autocorrelated. Returns on housing are positively autocorrelated. The price to rent ratio is negatively correlated with future returns on housing and future rent growth. Finally, housing returns exhibit significant time varying volatility. I show that a benchmark rational expectations general equilibrium asset pricing model is inconsistent with these facts. I modify the model in two ways to improve its fit with the data. First, I allow for pricing frictions so prices adjust slowly to their fundamental value. Second, I assume the agent does not know if housing fundamentals, captured by rental flows, are stationary or non-stationary and has changing beliefs depending on how well each model fits the current data. I find that these modifications allow the model to increase the volatility of the price to rent ratio and to match the autocorrelation of housing returns. The price to rent ratio then negatively forecasts returns and rent growth. Finally the model generates time varying volatility consistent with the data.
Book Synopsis Trend Growth Expectations and Us House Prices Before and After the Crisis by : Mathias Hoffmann
Download or read book Trend Growth Expectations and Us House Prices Before and After the Crisis written by Mathias Hoffmann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide an analysis that might help distinguish rationally justified movements in house prices from potentially non-rational movements, using a two-sector business cycle model, in which investment in housing is subject to collateral constraints. A large portion of the evolution of U.S. house prices during the past 20 years can be reproduced when expectations of future income growth as published in surveys are used as an input into the model. Changes in growth expectations translate into corresponding changes in house prices, since the value of housing must be linked to expected aggregate income. Only since about 2005 do actual and model-implied house prices clearly diverge, calling for explanations not based on economic fundamentals.
