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Historys Worst Predictions
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Book Synopsis History's Worst Predictions by : Eric Chaline
Download or read book History's Worst Predictions written by Eric Chaline and published by Chartwell Books. This book was released on 2011-04-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This hardcover book is an excellent historical resource, and a great gift for anyone with an interest in history. Organized chronologically from Antiquity to modern times and beyond, History's Worst Predictions excavates the strata of history to expose the credulity and absurdity of humanity's prophetic utterances. Every aspect of human life—religion, politics, science, economy, culture, and war—has provided material for the most far-fetched and inaccurate of predictions. Chapters include: The "First" Second Coming: Saints Mark, Matthew, Luke, and Paul Plagiarist Prophet: Nostradamus Historical Imperative: Karl Marx Man of Peace: Neville Chamberlain All Shook Up: Variety Magazine This beautifully illustrated, full-color volume contains photographs and maps that bring each chapter to life, depicting the people and places responsible for some of the most infamous prophecies in human history.
Download or read book Bad Predictions written by Laura Lee and published by Elsewhere Press (MI). This book was released on 2000 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis History's Worst Decisions by : Stephen Weir
Download or read book History's Worst Decisions written by Stephen Weir and published by Allen & Unwin. This book was released on 2005 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: History is strewn with mistakes. Many made by well intentioned people who were bright, intelligent, capable, but just made the wrong decision.
Book Synopsis History's Worst Predictions by : Eric Chaline
Download or read book History's Worst Predictions written by Eric Chaline and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Get Well Soon written by Jennifer Wright and published by Henry Holt. This book was released on 2017-02-07 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines "the gruesome, morbid details of some of the worst plagues in human history, as well as stories of the heroic figures who fought to ease their suffering. With her signature mix of ... research and ... storytelling, and not a little dark humor, Jennifer Wright explores history's most gripping and deadly outbreaks"--
Download or read book What If written by Cole Roberts and published by WestBow Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What if Christianity is simple? When Jesus gave his first public address, he said, I have come to fulfill the law and the prophets and to set the captives free. When a contract is fulfilled, it is completed and is no longer in effect. Religion is a form of bondage that enslaves its adherents to a set of rules that constitute sin. It portrays the image of a God who acts as a judge. In one hand he has a legal pad and pen and in the other a club. When sufficient sins have been committed, the club is used on the sinner. Jesus died on the cross to fulfill the need for justice and came to earth to show that God is not the ogre with a club but a loving father with outstretched arms wanting to hug his children He sent to us the Holy Spirit so we might have the heart and mind of Christ and be empowered to live a life free from the bondage of sin and religion. This book shows the reader how to do that and points out the stumbling blocks that may interfere. It enables the reader to see the simplicity of Christianity and understand why it should surpass religion in our lives.
Book Synopsis Climatology versus Pseudoscience by : Dana Nuccitelli
Download or read book Climatology versus Pseudoscience written by Dana Nuccitelli and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Book Synopsis A Short History of the Future by : W. Warren Wagar
Download or read book A Short History of the Future written by W. Warren Wagar and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1999-08 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Narrated by a far-future historian, Peter Jensen leaves an account of the world from the 1990s to the opening of the 23rd century as a gift to his granddaughter. A combination of fiction and scholarship, this third edition of Wagar's speculative history of the future alternates between descriptions of world events and intimate glimpses of this historian's family into the first centuries of the new millennium.
Book Synopsis The Fourth Turning by : William Strauss
Download or read book The Fourth Turning written by William Strauss and published by Crown. This book was released on 1997-12-29 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next. Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.
Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Book Synopsis A Brief History of the Future by : Jacques Attali
Download or read book A Brief History of the Future written by Jacques Attali and published by Skyhorse. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What will planet Earth be like in twenty years? At mid-century? In the year 2100? Prescient and convincing, this book is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future. Never has the world offered more promise for the future and been more fraught with dangers. Attali anticipates an unraveling of American hegemony as transnational corporations sever the ties linking free enterprise to democracy. World tensions will be primed for horrific warfare for resources and dominance. The ultimate question is: Will we leave our children and grandchildren a world that is not only viable but better, or in this nuclear world bequeath to them a planet that will be a living hell? Either way, he warns, the time to act is now.
Book Synopsis How History Gets Things Wrong by : Alex Rosenberg
Download or read book How History Gets Things Wrong written by Alex Rosenberg and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why we learn the wrong things from narrative history, and how our love for stories is hard-wired. To understand something, you need to know its history. Right? Wrong, says Alex Rosenberg in How History Gets Things Wrong. Feeling especially well-informed after reading a book of popular history on the best-seller list? Don't. Narrative history is always, always wrong. It's not just incomplete or inaccurate but deeply wrong, as wrong as Ptolemaic astronomy. We no longer believe that the earth is the center of the universe. Why do we still believe in historical narrative? Our attachment to history as a vehicle for understanding has a long Darwinian pedigree and a genetic basis. Our love of stories is hard-wired. Neuroscience reveals that human evolution shaped a tool useful for survival into a defective theory of human nature. Stories historians tell, Rosenberg continues, are not only wrong but harmful. Israel and Palestine, for example, have dueling narratives of dispossession that prevent one side from compromising with the other. Henry Kissinger applied lessons drawn from the Congress of Vienna to American foreign policy with disastrous results. Human evolution improved primate mind reading—the ability to anticipate the behavior of others, whether predators, prey, or cooperators—to get us to the top of the African food chain. Now, however, this hard-wired capacity makes us think we can understand history—what the Kaiser was thinking in 1914, why Hitler declared war on the United States—by uncovering the narratives of what happened and why. In fact, Rosenberg argues, we will only understand history if we don't make it into a story.
Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Download or read book Future Shock written by Alvin Toffler and published by Bantam. This book was released on 2022-01-11 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The classic work that predicted the anxieties of a world upended by rapidly emerging technologies—and now provides a road map to solving many of our most pressing crises. “Explosive . . . brilliantly formulated.” —The Wall Street Journal Future Shock is the classic that changed our view of tomorrow. Its startling insights into accelerating change led a president to ask his advisers for a special report, inspired composers to write symphonies and rock music, gave a powerful new concept to social science, and added a phrase to our language. Published in over fifty countries, Future Shock is the most important study of change and adaptation in our time. In many ways, Future Shock is about the present. It is about what is happening today to people and groups who are overwhelmed by change. Change affects our products, communities, organizations—even our patterns of friendship and love. But Future Shock also illuminates the world of tomorrow by exploding countless clichés about today. It vividly describes the emerging global civilization: the rise of new businesses, subcultures, lifestyles, and human relationships—all of them temporary. Future Shock will intrigue, provoke, frighten, encourage, and, above all, change everyone who reads it.
Book Synopsis The Physics of Wall Street by : James Owen Weatherall
Download or read book The Physics of Wall Street written by James Owen Weatherall and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2013 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the "solution" to--not the source of--our current economic woes.
Book Synopsis The Crazy Years by : Spider Robinson
Download or read book The Crazy Years written by Spider Robinson and published by BenBella Books, Inc.. This book was released on 2009-06-01 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of witty, irreverent essays on subjects running the gamut from the space program to airport bans on smoking are included in this anthology. Written by Spider Robinson, The Crazy Years takes its name from Robert A. Heinlein's designation of the last years of the 20th century and contains essays from Robinson's tenure as op-ed columnist for The Globe and Mail and from Galaxy Online. Environmentalists that place the survival of earth before the survival of humanity, the idiocy of computer designs, and the downsides of the Internet are among the subjects Robinson uses to take the world to task.
