Author : Cristina Checherita-Westphal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484337611
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Governments’ Payment Discipline by : Cristina Checherita-Westphal
Download or read book Governments’ Payment Discipline written by Cristina Checherita-Westphal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-22 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the impact of changes in the payment discipline of governments on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union countries using two complementary approaches. First, we use annual panel data, including a newly constructed proxy for government arrears. We find that payment delays and to some extent estimated arrears lead to a higher likelihood of bankruptcy, lower profits, and lower economic growth. However, while this approach allows a broad set of variables to be included, it restricts the number of time periods. We therefore complement it with a Bayesian VAR approach on quarterly data for selected countries faced with significant payment delays. We again find that the likelihood of bankruptcies rises when governments increase the average payment period.