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Government Ponzi Games And Debt Dynamic Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty by : Leonardo Bartolini
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Leonardo Bartolini and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamic Under Uncertainty by : L. Bartolini
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamic Under Uncertainty written by L. Bartolini and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dynamic Efficiency, the Rickless Rate and Debt by : Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Dynamic Efficiency, the Rickless Rate and Debt written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a dynamically efficienct economy, can a government roll its debt forever and avoid the need to raise taxes? In a series of examples of production economies with zero growth, this paper shows that such Ponzi games may be infeasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is negative, and may be feasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is positive. The paper then reveals the structure which underlies these examples. Keywords: Dynamic efficiency, pareto optimality, bubbles, Ponzi games, public debt, riskless rate.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty by : Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a dynamically efficienct economy, can a government roll its debt forever and avoid the need to raise taxes? In a series of examples of production economies with zero growth, this paper shows that such Ponzi games may be infeasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is negative, and may be feasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is positive. The paper then reveals the structure which underlies these examples.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Efficiency and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty by : Olivier Blanchard
Download or read book Dynamic Efficiency and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty written by Olivier Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dynamic efficiency, the riskless rate, and debt ponzi games under uncertainty by : Olivier Blanchard
Download or read book Dynamic efficiency, the riskless rate, and debt ponzi games under uncertainty written by Olivier Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty by : Mr.Leonardo Bartolini
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Mr.Leonardo Bartolini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty : Presented at the Second International Macroeconomics Programme Meeting, Madrid, Spain, 7nd and 8nd June 1991 by : Philippe Weil
Download or read book Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty : Presented at the Second International Macroeconomics Programme Meeting, Madrid, Spain, 7nd and 8nd June 1991 written by Philippe Weil and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies by : Philip Barrett
Download or read book Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies written by Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1451956940 Total Pages :220 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (519 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-11 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.
Book Synopsis Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling by : Simon Kuipers
Download or read book Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling written by Simon Kuipers and published by Springer. This book was released on 1998-11-12 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling discusses several state-of-the-art developments in the modelling approach to market behaviour in macroeconomic modelling. Leading experts in this field, deal with the implications of market imperfections in commodity markets, capital markets and labour markets for macroeconomic modelling and stabilization policy. They demonstrate that incorporating market imperfections leads to very different policy recommendations than those derived from the standard perfect competition model.
Book Synopsis The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials by : Mr.Julio Escolano
Download or read book The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials written by Mr.Julio Escolano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interest rate-growth differential (IRGD) shows a marked correlation with GDP per capita. It has been on average around 1 percentage point for large advanced economies during 1999-2008; but below -7 percentage points among non-advanced economies - exerting a powerful stabilizing influence on government debt ratios. We show that large negative IRGDs are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium - possibly stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets, whereas the income catch-up process plays a relatively modest role. We find econometric support for this conjecture. Therefore, the IRGD in non-advanced economies is likely to rise with financial integration and market development, well before their GDP per capita converges to advanced-economy levels.
Book Synopsis Post-crisis Fiscal Policy by : Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Post-crisis Fiscal Policy written by Carlo Cottarelli and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-06-27 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment). This volume brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. After establishing its analytical foundation, with chapters on such topics as fiscal risk and debt dynamics, the book analyzes the buildup of fiscal vulnerabilities before the crisis, presents the policy response during the crisis, discusses the fiscal outlook and policy challenges ahead, and offers lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. Topics discussed include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and institutional reform aimed at fostering fiscal discipline."--Publisher's description.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis The Sovereign Debt Crisis by : Anton Brender
Download or read book The Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Anton Brender and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Sovereign Debt Crisis," 2012 edition, looked at how governments ran up substantial deficits in order to avert a worldwide depression and their subsequent attempts to rebalance their budgets. This updated edition concentrates on the delicate balancing act the economies of the United States, Japan, and the eurozone face between the present need to boost sluggish economic growth by providing sufficiently cheap, low-risk credit and the longer-term challenges of cutting massive debt and returning to a sustainable fiscal policy. The authors argue that many of the euro area economies, having noticeable difficulty paying their international debts, are in a sovereign debt crisis, while America and Japan are, for now, holding steady but in real danger of slipping into crisis. The book shows how the process has evolved in these three major developed economies and how their policy choices impact global financial markets.
