Government Budget Forecasting

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Government Budget Forecasting

Author : Jinping Sun
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351565117
Total Pages : 637 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Budget Forecasting by : Jinping Sun

Download or read book Government Budget Forecasting written by Jinping Sun and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-25 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting

Author : Daniel Williams
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030181952
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting by : Daniel Williams

Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting written by Daniel Williams and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-14 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

Forecasting Government Budgets

Author : Aman Khan
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1793613117
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (936 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Government Budgets by : Aman Khan

Download or read book Forecasting Government Budgets written by Aman Khan and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-12-15 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is integral to all governmental activities, especially budgetary activities. Without good and accurate forecasts, a government will not only find it difficult to carry out its everyday operations but will also find it difficult to cope with the increasingly complex environment in which it has to operate. This book presents, in a simple and easy to understand manner, some of the commonly used methods in budget forecasting, simple as well as advanced. The book is divided into three parts: It begins with an overview of forecasting background, forecasting process, and forecasting methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the actual methods in Parts I, II, and III. Part I discusses a combination of basic time series models such as percentage average, simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average, double as well as triple, simple trend line, time-series with cyclical variation, and time-series regression, with single and multiple independent variables. Part II discusses some of the more advanced, but frequently used time series models, such as ARIMA, regular as well as seasonal, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC). Part III provides an overview of three of the more recent advances in time series models, namely ensemble forecasting, state-space forecasting, and neural network. The book concludes with a brief discussion of some practical issues in budget forecasting.

Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government

Author : Howard A. Frank
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government by : Howard A. Frank

Download or read book Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government written by Howard A. Frank and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1993-11-23 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local governments are hard-pressed to balance their budgets in the 1990s. Part of any budget-balancing effort is accurate forecasting. In this new work, Howard Frank introduces time-tested forecasting techniques from the private sector and military in a local forecasting environment. In a lucid, user-friendly treatment, Frank shows how simple and complex methods can be put to use in the contemporary local government setting. Through examples--many of them from his own research--the author delineates the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and non-quantitative forecasting methods. Frank also shows how these techniques can be used to monitor changes in public programs--an increasingly important part of contemporary budget execution. Frank does not assume an extensive mathematical or statistical background on the part of the reader--indeed, a forecast neophyte will have no difficulty understanding the text. Questions at the end of each chapter focus the reader on the major concepts and provide insights on practical applications within the urban setting. A cornerstone of the work is that local forecasters must be intelligent experimenters with the new tools--there is no canned advice that applies to all cities and forecast situations. But with application of forecasting approaches treated in this unique work, local budgeters--and those in training to become budgeters--will be able to adopt forecasting approaches that have been underutilized in local government.

Forecasting Local Government Spending

Author : Claudia Devita Scott
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Local Government Spending by : Claudia Devita Scott

Download or read book Forecasting Local Government Spending written by Claudia Devita Scott and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance

Author : Aman Khan
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031536746
Total Pages : 531 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance by : Aman Khan

Download or read book Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance written by Aman Khan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting in government to achieve value for money

Author : Great Britain: National Audit Office
Publisher : Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780102987485
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (874 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting in government to achieve value for money by : Great Britain: National Audit Office

Download or read book Forecasting in government to achieve value for money written by Great Britain: National Audit Office and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-01-31 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High-quality forecasting is an essential part of achieving value for money for the taxpayer. Since 2010, more than 70 of the NAO's reports have identified forecasting weaknesses. For example, the Department for Education initially underestimated the scale of demand for its academies programme and did not develop robust cost estimates. To remain within spending limits without restricting the pace or scale of the expansion, it used additional contingency funding of £105m and reassigned £244m from other budgets. 'Optimism bias' and poor quality data are among the root causes of departments' poor production and use of forecasts. Analysts have expressed concern that they are under pressure to provide supportive rather than realistic forecasts; and over half the analysts surveyed by the NAO identified a lack of good-quality data as preventing good forecasting. While the Treasury has introduced incentives to improve forecasting, these are at risk of being overwhelmed by the need to meet Parliament's requirements not to breach end of year spending totals. Most Finance Directors responding to the NAO survey considered that the spending control framework incentivised them to over-budget and underspend. In 2012-13, underspending increased to £11.5 billion, nearly three times the recent average. The Treasury encouraged underspends for Budget 2013; however, the NAO is concerned that the Treasury's flexing of the budget exchange rules (allowing departments to carry forward a forecast underspend from one year to the next) was not clearly related to the quality of individual departments' financial management

Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States

Author : Michael J. Brogan
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 0739168401
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States by : Michael J. Brogan

Download or read book Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States written by Michael J. Brogan and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.

Recommended Budget Practices

Author : National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting (United States)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780891252405
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (524 download)

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Book Synopsis Recommended Budget Practices by : National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting (United States)

Download or read book Recommended Budget Practices written by National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting (United States) and published by . This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management

Author : Mr.Jack Diamond
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557757876
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (578 download)

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Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management by : Mr.Jack Diamond

Download or read book Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management written by Mr.Jack Diamond and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.

Financing the Future

Author : Shayne Kavanagh
Publisher : GFOA
ISBN 13 : 9780891252887
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (528 download)

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Book Synopsis Financing the Future by : Shayne Kavanagh

Download or read book Financing the Future written by Shayne Kavanagh and published by GFOA. This book was released on 2007 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Revenue Analysis and Forecasting

Author : Barry Blom
Publisher : Gfoa
ISBN 13 : 9780891252221
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (522 download)

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Book Synopsis Revenue Analysis and Forecasting by : Barry Blom

Download or read book Revenue Analysis and Forecasting written by Barry Blom and published by Gfoa. This book was released on 2001 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The International Handbook of Public Financial Management

Author : Richard Allen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113731530X
Total Pages : 1125 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis The International Handbook of Public Financial Management by : Richard Allen

Download or read book The International Handbook of Public Financial Management written by Richard Allen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-08-15 with total page 1125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook is a virtual encyclopedia of public financial management, written by topmost experts, many with a background in the IMF and World Bank. It provides the first comprehensive guide to the subject that has been published in more than ten years. The book is aimed at a broad audience of academics/students, government officials, development agencies and practitioners. It covers both bread-and-butter topics such as the macroeconomic and legal framework for budgeting, budget preparation and execution, procurement, accounting, reporting, audit and oversight, as well as specialist subjects such as government payroll systems, local government finance, fiscal transparency, the management of fiscal risks, sovereign wealth funds, the management of state-owned enterprises, and political economy aspects of budgeting. The book sets out numerous examples and case studies describing good practice in public financial management, and is highly relevant for use in both advanced and developing countries.

Long-Term Budget Outlook

Author : Joyce Manchester
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437936040
Total Pages : 90 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-Term Budget Outlook by : Joyce Manchester

Download or read book Long-Term Budget Outlook written by Joyce Manchester and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the pressures on the federal budget by presenting projections of federal spending and revenues over the coming decades. An aging population and rapidly rising health care costs will sharply increase federal spending for health care programs and Social Security. Such spending will cause federal debt to grow to unsustainable levels. Policymakers will need to let revenues increase substantially, decrease spending significantly, or adopt some combination of those two approaches. Contents of this report: Long-term Outlook for the Federal Budget; Long-term Outlook for Mandatory Spending on Health Care; Long-term Outlook for Social Security; Long-term Outlook for Revenues; Long-term Projections through 2080. Charts and tables.

Budget options

Author : United States. Congressional Budget Office
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Budget options by : United States. Congressional Budget Office

Download or read book Budget options written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Revenue Forecasting--How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries

Author : Annette Kyobe
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Revenue Forecasting--How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries by : Annette Kyobe

Download or read book Revenue Forecasting--How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries written by Annette Kyobe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-02 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice

Author : Gerald J. Miller
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351565087
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice by : Gerald J. Miller

Download or read book Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice written by Gerald J. Miller and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-25 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The right turn in U. S. politics has increased conflict over both ends and means in government budgeting and financial management. Overlapping and competing views of the way the world works drive finance officials’ practice. Taking a new look at public financial management that acknowledges the multiple, competing realities, Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice: Logics to Make Sense of Ambiguity examines transaction cost economics and other small government, managed-by-the-market techniques as the latest reincarnation of public budgeting and financial management orthodoxy. Gerald J. Miller reviews new research on the continuing validity of the political dimension of government finance decisions and the multiple, intensely argued constructions of reality the finance official must make sense of. Miller discusses major advances in interpretive approaches to budgeting and finance and how they dominate writing in the broader field of public administration. He also examines the effects of the explosion of information systems, new budget techniques, nonconventional ways of spending, and new technologies. The book uses a question as the motivating force to understand some facets of today’s government budgeting, finance, and financial management: where do the critical assumptions come from to drive financial management? Miller takes the history of reform, developments in the field and the logics finance officials say they use as sources for these assumptions and examines what they reveal about constructions of the government finance world. Exploring new avenues of financial management thinking, the book discusses ambiguity and interpretations that move the unclear preferences, ends, and goals toward consensus. The author identifies an alternative approach to research that explains important facets of financial management. This approach is drawn directly from practice, events and problems in public organizations and from the creedal bent of many political actors in competition.