Global Trade Fragmentation

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Global Trade Fragmentation

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789276296300
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (963 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trade Fragmentation by :

Download or read book Global Trade Fragmentation written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The risk of global trade fragmentation has increased significantly. Rising geopolitical tensions, a growing number of trade restrictions and a weakening of multilateral institutions have been important geopolitical drivers. These trends have been accompanied by a drastic rise in trade-inhibiting policy measures, particularly after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In this context, the EU's integration in the global economy via trade and value chains remains resilient thus far. Yet, a more fragmented world trade in the future would result of selected decoupling between countries, a general re-balancing towards resilience of value chains and efforts to secure access to key raw materials in lieu of efficiency. This would come at a significant cost. Global trade fragmentation in the form of an increase in trade barriers and higher trade policy uncertainty could lead to significant reduction in global output in the long-term, with low-income countries likely to be more negatively affected.

The Global Trade Slowdown

Author : Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498399134
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown by : Cristina Constantinescu

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities

Author : Marijn A. Bolhuis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities by : Marijn A. Bolhuis

Download or read book Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

Fragmentation

Author : Sven W. Arndt
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191589063
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Fragmentation by : Sven W. Arndt

Download or read book Fragmentation written by Sven W. Arndt and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2001-02-08 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Fragmentation" is a term used in this volume to describe cross-border component specialization and production-sharing. Examination of recent trade data suggests that offshore sourcing of parts and components, as well as offshore assembly, are assuming an increasing role in the world economy. The theoretical implications of this type of specialization are examined in several chapters with the aid of both Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin trade models. Production is first decomposed ("fragmented") into its constituent parts and activities, and then it is at this level that factor-intensities and technologies are calibrated. The implications of intra-product specialization and component trade are investigated under conditions of free, restricted, and preferential trade. The role of multinationals is explored and the importance of cross-border service-links among component activities is examined. Overall, extension of the principle of comparative advantage beyond products to the realm of parts and components is welfare-enhancing. Industries take advantage of offshore sourcing in order to reduce costs and increase competitiveness. Component specialization offers new and additional opportunities for the exploitation of scale economies. Across a broad range of conditions, it raises output and employment. Its effects on wages are spelled out. Trade between advanced, high-wage and developing low-wage countries is an obvious candidate for the two-way application of component specialization. The empirical part of the volume presents an evaluation of new data which allow the separation of trade in components and in final products. It also provides assessments of the role of component specialization in the trade of several countries and regions. In addition to their relevance for trade theorists and country specialists, the studies collected in this volume have interesting implications for the conduct of trade policy. They contradict claims that trade with low-wage countries must be welfare-reducing and they suggest new approaches to industrialization and economic development.

Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade

Author : Shushanik Hakobyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade by : Shushanik Hakobyan

Download or read book Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade written by Shushanik Hakobyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.

Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism

Author : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism by : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Download or read book Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-15 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism

Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce

Author : Uri Dadush
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1666929379
Total Pages : 227 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (669 download)

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Book Synopsis Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce by : Uri Dadush

Download or read book Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce written by Uri Dadush and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economic edifice built after World War II is a source of unprecedented prosperity. It cannot function without open and predictable international trade, and the peaceful international relations that are its foundation. The rules that enable trade are under attack. Social divisions and great power rivalry have eroded the political support for open trade. The consequence is fragmentation of world trade, its separation into blocks that advance domestic producers or favored nations nearby. These blocs are themselves often pulled apart by competing agendas. The prospects are for vastly reduced economic efficiency and - most ominously - heightened geopolitical tensions. The questions about why this is happening, how economic fragmentation will evolve, and how to respond to it, are uppermost in the minds of policymakers and businesses across the world. These are the questions that Uri Dadush seeks to answer. Since the uncertainty cannot be dispelled, it must be better managed.

International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation

Author : Alan V. Deardorff
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation by : Alan V. Deardorff

Download or read book International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation written by Alan V. Deardorff and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author examines the special role that trade liberalization in services industries can play in stimulating trade in both services, and goods. International trade in goods requires inputs from such trade services as transportation, insurance, and finance, for example. Restrictions on services across borders, and within foreign countries add costs, and barriers to international trade. Liberalizing trade in services could also facilitate trade in goods, providing more benefits than one might expect from analysis merely of the services trade. To emphasize the point, the author notes that the benefits for trade are arguably enhanced by the phenomenon of fragmentation. The more that production processes become split across locations, with the fragments tied together, and coordinated by various trade services, the greater the gains from reductions in the costs of services. The incentives for such fragmentation can be greater across countries, than within countries, because of the greater differences in factor prices, and technologies. But the service costs of international fragmentation can also be larger, especially if regulations, and restrictions impede the international provision of services. As a result, trade liberalization in services can stimulate the fragmentation of production of both goods, and services, thus increasing international trade, and the gains from trade even further. Since fragmentation seems to characterize an increasing portion of world specialization, the importance of service liberalization is growing apace.

Has Globalization Gone Far Enough?

Author : Scott C. Bradford
Publisher : Peterson Institute for International Economics
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Has Globalization Gone Far Enough? by : Scott C. Bradford

Download or read book Has Globalization Gone Far Enough? written by Scott C. Bradford and published by Peterson Institute for International Economics. This book was released on 2004 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation How important are the remaining barriers to integration in international goods markets and how would eliminating them affect global and individual countries' welfare? This book studies these questions using the most comprehensive price data available. Bradford and Lawrence find that there is considerable market fragmentation among industrial countries -- that is, firms charging different prices for similar products in different national markets -- even among countries with low tariff barriers. The authors estimate that integration among the eight countries in their sample -- Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States -- would raise global GDP by more than $500 billion, or about 2 percent. Remarkably, almost half the global gain in these eight countries could be reaped if Japan alone eliminated its international fragmentation.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Author : Nagwa Riad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463973101
Total Pages : 87 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Changing Patterns of Global Trade by : Nagwa Riad

Download or read book Changing Patterns of Global Trade written by Nagwa Riad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-15 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

Future Fragmentation Processes

Author : Jodie Keane
Publisher : Commonwealth Secretariat
ISBN 13 : 1849291667
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (492 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Fragmentation Processes by : Jodie Keane

Download or read book Future Fragmentation Processes written by Jodie Keane and published by Commonwealth Secretariat. This book was released on 2017-08-07 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Future Fragmentation Processes provides a careful examination of global value chains (GVCs) within which Commonwealth members countries specialise at the sectoral level: manufacturing, services and commodity trade, including within the realm of the oceans economy, and reflects on future fragmentation processes.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Fragmenting Globalization

Author : Ka Zeng
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 047212837X
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (721 download)

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Book Synopsis Fragmenting Globalization by : Ka Zeng

Download or read book Fragmenting Globalization written by Ka Zeng and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global supply chain integration is not only a rapidly growing feature of international trade, it is responsible for fundamentally changing trade policy at international and domestic levels. Given that final goods are produced with both domestic and foreign suppliers, Ka Zeng and Xiaojun Li argue that global supply chain integration pits firms and industries that are more heavily dependent on foreign supply chains against those that are less dependent on intermediate goods for domestic production. Hence, businesses whose supply chain would be disrupted as a result of increased trade barriers should lobby for preferential trade liberalization to maintain access to those foreign markets. Moreover, businesses whose products are used in the production of goods in foreign countries should also support preferential trade liberalization to compete with suppliers from other parts of the world. Fragmenting Globalization uses multiple methods, including time series, cross-sectional analysis of the pattern of Preferential Trade Alliance formation by existing World Trade Organization members, a firm-level survey, and case studies of the pattern of corporate support for regional trade liberalization in both China and the United States. Zeng and Li show that the growing fragmentation of global production, trade, and investment is altering trade policy away from the traditional divide between export-oriented and import-competing industries.

The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia

Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781542904476
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (44 download)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia by : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-11-18 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

The Fragmentation of Global Climate Governance

Author : Harro van Asselt
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1782544984
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (825 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fragmentation of Global Climate Governance by : Harro van Asselt

Download or read book The Fragmentation of Global Climate Governance written by Harro van Asselt and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-04-25 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fragmented state of global climate governance poses major challenges to policymakers and scholars alike. Through an in-depth examination of regime interactions between the international climate regime and three other regimes (on clean technology, b

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Author : Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets by : Mr. Jorge A Alvarez

Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets written by Mr. Jorge A Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.

World Development Report 2020

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464814953
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis World Development Report 2020 by : World Bank

Download or read book World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.