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Author : Maryam Ahmadi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Global Oil Market and the U.S. Stock Returns written by Maryam Ahmadi and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Babatunde Olatunji Odusami
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Crude Oil Shocks and Stock Market Returns written by Babatunde Olatunji Odusami and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines whether nonlinear crude oil effect observed in aggregate US stock return can be explained by unexpected shocks from the crude oil market. I separate the distribution of aggregate US stock return into variance component driven by smoothly arriving news information and discrete Poisson news arriving from the crude oil market. I find that unexpected crude oil shocks have nonlinear effect on excess US stock market return. Contemporaneous and lagged returns on crude oil futures have significant negative effect on jump distribution in US stock market returns. I also investigate if the volatility of aggregate US stock return is in any way related to information released at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meetings. The empirical result reveals no significant feedback effect from OPEC meetings to the US stock markets.
Author : Mohan Singh Nandha
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Essays on the Linkage Between Oil Price and Stock Market Returns written by Mohan Singh Nandha and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil is a special type of commodity which plays a significant role in modem economic activity. The influence of the oil (crude oil) price on stock markets is often recognised and reported in the financial press. This thesis examines the role of the oil price in explaining stock market returns. By applying different methodologies and datasets, empirical evidence has been gathered on various dimensions of the issue which include short-run and long-run comparisons, cross-country analysis, sector¬focused analysis, cross-sector comparisons and a global view. Four of the studies included in this thesis use multi-country data and four are based on multi-sector equity data. Overall, all countries and all sectors (subject to data availability) have been covered in one or another study. Results of a study focused on India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (all net oil importers) indicate several industries to be significantly sensitive to the oil price factor in the long-run, whereas very little sensitivity to oil price is detected in the short run. Perhaps, this might be an indication that because of the regulated nature of fuel pricing in all three countries, it could take time before the price change is aJlowed to impact consumers and firms. Cross country and cross sector comparisons suggest that the oil price impact on stock market returns is inconsistent across countries and varies across sectors. These differences might be a consequence of regulatory and structural disparities across countries. Across sector variations may result from differing sector abilities to pass on higher fuel costs to customers. In addition, intensity of a sector to the use of oil and its by-products would also make a difference. Two of the studies are sector focused, covering the 'oil and gas' and 'transportation' sectors. These sectors are special in a sense that oil is the main output for the first sector and a major cost component for the second sector. Evidence from the U.S. market suggests that oil and gas stock returns are positively sensitive to the oil price, but an oil risk premium is not priced in the returns. This finding could suggest that oil price risk is diversifiable or can be effectively hedged by investors in oil and gas stocks. The transport sector focused study provides a global perspective in a sense that all countries are covered. This study is supportive of oil playing a jointly significant role in the transport sector returns for the Developed, Europe and 07 country groups. Finally, a study based on global sector indices is indicative of a negative impact on all sector returns except the mining, and oil and gas sectors. These results are consistent with the theoretical logic that a rise in the oil price is likely to reduce the profitability of firms which use oil and/or by-products of oil. This type of agreement between the theory and empirical evidence may also suggest that globally diversified and sector specific portfolios are the best choice for analysing the oil price sensitivity of stock market returns. Overall, oil appears to have some connectivity with the pricing of equities but various types of cross country and cross sector disparities make the pricing dynamics complex and difficult to quantify in exact terms.
Author : Robert McNally
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231543689
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)
Download or read book Crude Volatility written by Robert McNally and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author : Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262523233
Total Pages : 398 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (232 download)
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current issues in macroeconomics.
Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475572360
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author : Jean Tirole
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262200716
Total Pages : 1482 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)
Download or read book The Theory of Industrial Organization written by Jean Tirole and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1988-08-26 with total page 1482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Theory of Industrial Organization is the first primary text to treat the new industrial organization at the advanced-undergraduate and graduate level. Rigorously analytical and filled with exercises coded to indicate level of difficulty, it provides a unified and modern treatment of the field with accessible models that are simplified to highlight robust economic ideas while working at an intuitive level. To aid students at different levels, each chapter is divided into a main text and supplementary section containing more advanced material. Each chapter opens with elementary models and builds on this base to incorporate current research in a coherent synthesis. Tirole begins with a background discussion of the theory of the firm. In Part I he develops the modern theory of monopoly, addressing single product and multi product pricing, static and intertemporal price discrimination, quality choice, reputation, and vertical restraints. In Part II, Tirole takes up strategic interaction between firms, starting with a novel treatment of the Bertrand-Cournot interdependent pricing problem. He studies how capacity constraints, repeated interaction, product positioning, advertising, and asymmetric information affect competition or tacit collusion. He then develops topics having to do with long term competition, including barriers to entry, contestability, exit, and research and development. He concludes with a "game theory user's manual" and a section of review exercises. Important Notice: The digital edition of this book is missing some of the images found in the physical edition.
Author : Joseph H. Davis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Oil, the Economy, and the Stock Market written by Joseph H. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the time-varying effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, and global equity markets. While the first-round impact of oil-price shocks on U.S. economic growth has not changed materially over time, their formerly-negative second-round effects are notably absent over the past 25 years given oil's near-zero impact on long-term inflation expectations. Since oil-price shocks now represent a less-stagflationary policy tradeoff, we show why the Federal Reserve should lower short-term interest rates in response to an oil-price shock under certain (but not all) macro scenarios. For domestic and international stocks, simple regressions reveal the anticipated inverse relationship, with a 10% increase in oil prices associated with a statistically significant 1.5% lower total return. However, the stock market's reaction varies dramatically depending on the source of the oil-price shock, with global stocks - in particular the industrial and materials sectors - responding quite favorably to oil-price increases attributed to global-demand shocks. A key implication is that oil-price increases do not uniformly lead to lower stock returns. Interestingly, our oil-price decomposition suggests that oil's recent surge cannot be explained by supply disruptions, global demand fundamentals, or the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
Author : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357227X
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Author : Geert Verbeke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441903003
Total Pages : 579 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)
Download or read book Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data written by Geert Verbeke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive treatment of linear mixed models for continuous longitudinal data. Next to model formulation, this edition puts major emphasis on exploratory data analysis for all aspects of the model, such as the marginal model, subject-specific profiles, and residual covariance structure. Further, model diagnostics and missing data receive extensive treatment. Sensitivity analysis for incomplete data is given a prominent place. Most analyses were done with the MIXED procedure of the SAS software package, but the data analyses are presented in a software-independent fashion.
Author : Apostolos Serletis
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
ISBN 13 : 9789814390675
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (96 download)
Download or read book Oil Price Uncertainty written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2012 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.
Author : Seyedmehdi Hosseini
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Price Changes written by Seyedmehdi Hosseini and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the effect of crude oil and stock market dynamics in a sample of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries at different stages of development. This relationship is also explored in a sample of world equity indices, such as MSCI ACWI, MSCI World, MSCI EAFE, MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI Europe, and MSCI USA. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of financial distress, as reflected by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession episodes. The empirical findings show that the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach and a Quantile Regression (QR) approach produce relatively similar results. However, the QR approach is found to offer a greater insight into the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock returns, as it is a more robust and efficient estimator compared to the OLS. For example, the OLS results fail to identify any significant impact of crude oil price changes on stock returns for several oil-exporting countries, irrespective of whether the relationship was negative (Ecuador, Iraq, Mexico, and Venezuela) or positive (Algeria and Brazil). In contrast, the QR approach is able to identify specific quantiles for which crude oil price changes have a significant impact on stock returns, even if the relationship is insignificant at the level of the mean.
Author : Wensheng Kang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market written by Wensheng Kang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kilian and Park (IER 50 (2009), 1267-287) find shocks to oil supply are relatively unimportant to understanding changes in U.S. stock returns. We examine the impact of both U.S. and non-U.S. oil supply shocks on U.S. stock returns in light of the unprecedented expansion in U.S. oil production since 2009. Our results underscore the importance of the disaggregation of world oil supply and of the recent extraordinary surge in the U.S. oil production for analysing impact on U.S. stock prices. A positive U.S. oil supply shock has a positive impact on U.S. real stock returns. Oil demand and supply shocks are of comparable importance in explaining U.S. real stock returns when supply shocks from U.S. and non-U.S. oil production are identified.
Author : Andre V. Mollick
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (131 download)
Download or read book U.S. Stock Returns and Oil Prices written by Andre V. Mollick and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using daily data from January 1999 to December 2011, we examine U.S. stock returns (S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000) based on a wide range of information, including equity VIX volatility, inflation expectations, interest rates, gold prices, and the USD/Euro exchange rate. The focus is on oil price returns, which have been previously found to exert mostly negative effects on U.S. stock returns. Identifying the crisis of 2008-2009 as a significant period of economic contraction and subsequent “recovery”, we check the stability of the stock-oil relationship by GARCH and MGARCH-DCC models. Prior to the financial crisis, stock returns are slightly (negatively) affected by oil prices and by the USD/Euro. For the subsample of mid-2009 onwards, however, stock returns are positively affected by oil prices and a weaker USD/Euro. As with inflation expectations, we interpret these findings as U.S. stocks responding positively to expectations of recovery worldwide. Our proposed explanation is due to the changing correlation between stock markets and oil, either by standard GARCH models or by MGARCH-DCC models allowing the implied correlation to vary over time.
Author : Riad Mohammed Dahel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)
Download or read book The Effects of Oil Prices on the Rates of Return on Stocks in the Petroleum, Chemical and Utility Industries written by Riad Mohammed Dahel and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498333486
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author : Shayle R. Searle
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470317698
Total Pages : 537 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (73 download)
Download or read book Variance Components written by Shayle R. Searle and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. ". . .Variance Components is an excellent book. It is organized and well written, and provides many references to a variety of topics. I recommend it to anyone with interest in linear models." —Journal of the American Statistical Association "This book provides a broad coverage of methods for estimating variance components which appeal to students and research workers . . . The authors make an outstanding contribution to teaching and research in the field of variance component estimation." —Mathematical Reviews "The authors have done an excellent job in collecting materials on a broad range of topics. Readers will indeed gain from using this book . . . I must say that the authors have done a commendable job in their scholarly presentation." —Technometrics This book focuses on summarizing the variability of statistical data known as the analysis of variance table. Penned in a readable style, it provides an up-to-date treatment of research in the area. The book begins with the history of analysis of variance and continues with discussions of balanced data, analysis of variance for unbalanced data, predictions of random variables, hierarchical models and Bayesian estimation, binary and discrete data, and the dispersion mean model.
