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General Circulation Model Regional Predictions Using Mos Techniques
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Book Synopsis General Circulation Model Regional Predictions Using MOS Techniques by : Anuj Dhoj Thapa
Download or read book General Circulation Model Regional Predictions Using MOS Techniques written by Anuj Dhoj Thapa and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ocean and atmospheric Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) have been widely used to provide more accurate and coherent seasonal forecasts. However, they still show some limitations. Model Output Statistics (MOS) approaches may improve performance if observed and forecast values are available for a long record. This study investigates the skills of a MOS approach on ECHAM4p5 in simulating rainfall and temperature on a seasonal time scale over the South West (SW) Ontario region. ECHAM4p5 model has 20 ensemble members and those 20 members along with their mean are compared with real time observational data collected locally by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) weather stations. Presently, the ECHAM4p5 model is run by the Foundation Cearense for Meteorology and Water Management (FUNCEME), Brazil. The model is run at the beginning of every month based on persisted Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from 0000 of 1st day of that month. An ensemble average of 20 realizations is used for the forecasts. The model uses for eight-month weather predictions ahead of the start date. Historical model data were available from International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University and used together with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) rainfall data and average daily temperature obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at University of East Anglia. Ten years of daily forecasts for SW Ontario from the ECHAM4p5 model are used to develop Regional Correction Factors (RCF) to help in improving the model seasonal forecast confidence level. The basic (bias correction based) MOS technique is applied for seasonal and regional bias corrections. Our focus has been on the first three months of the forecast and comparisons are made against Meteorological Terminal Air Report (METAR) and other data for SW Ontario. The comparison of tuned data and observations has been made over SW Ontario. The motivation of taking this domain is that our industrial partner is mainly working with the farmers in SW Ontario. The approach used had given encouraging results (based on personal communication) in larger geographic areas and improved seasonal predictions in Pakistan. The results so far in the much smaller SW Ontario domain, with a somewhat different climatology, have not been as successful but have provided ideas for future research. We have worked on both monthly and daily precipitation and temperature, but in particular we have focused to investigate day to day differences between different ensemble members to see what information might be gained from them. Our results show that there is huge variation among 20 ensemble members and those variations are canceled out while taking their mean for ensemble mean forecasting technique. Furthermore, while comparing individual ensemble members with observation data, we also get the idea that few ensemble members are following observation data closely. We also compare the same method for larger domain to improve our forecasting results.
Book Synopsis General Circulation Model Development by : David A. Randall
Download or read book General Circulation Model Development written by David A. Randall and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2000-07-19 with total page 849 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: General Circulation Models (GCMs) are rapidly assuming widespread use as powerful tools for predicting global events on time scales of months to decades, such as the onset of EL Nino, monsoons, soil moisture saturation indices, global warming estimates, and even snowfall predictions. While GCMs have been praised for helping to foretell the current El Nino and its impact on droughts in Indonesia, its full power is only now being recognized by international scientists and governments who seek to link GCMs to help them estimate fish harvests, risk of floods, landslides, and even forest fires.Scientists in oceanography, hydrology, meteorology, and climatology and civil, ocean, and geological engineers perceive a need for a reference on GCM design. In this compilation of information by an internationally recognized group of experts, Professor Randall brings together the knowledge base of the forerunners in theoretical and applied frontiers of GCM development. General Circulation Model Development focuses on the past, present, and future design of numerical methods for general circulation modeling, as well as the physical parameterizations required for their proper implementation. Additional chapters on climate simulation and other applications provide illustrative examples of state-of-the-art GCM design.Key Features* Foreword by Norman Phillips* Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts* Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA* Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling* Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students
Book Synopsis Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research by : Douglas Maraun
Download or read book Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research written by Douglas Maraun and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.
Book Synopsis Integrated Regional Models by : Peter Groffman
Download or read book Integrated Regional Models written by Peter Groffman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Integrated regional models are conceptual and mathematical models that describe the physical environment, biological interactions, human decision-making, and human impact on the environment. Efforts are now being made to integrate regional models from the physical, biological and social sciences in order to respond to diverse environmental problems. This volume explores the latest research developments on processes operating at a variety of scales, including regions, and how scientists can combine their efforts to develop models linking biological, physical, and human systems. Data requirements for successful integrated regional models are identified and discussed. Chapters also consider methodological questions, such as whether to integrate disciplinary approaches at the beginning or the end of the modelling process, and whether integrated regional models should focus on specific regions or specific problems. The information in this volume will enable the reader to view problems such as coastal zone management, atmospheric pollution, non-point source pollution, commodity production in forested areas, and urban expansion in a broad, conceptual context. Researchers and graduate students in ecology, biology, geography and geology will benefit from this innovative approach to contemporary environmental problems.
Book Synopsis Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections by : Rao Kotamarthi
Download or read book Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections written by Rao Kotamarthi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to understanding, using and producing downscaled climate data, for researchers, graduate students, policy makers and practitioners.
Book Synopsis Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin by : The BACC II Author Team
Download or read book Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin written by The BACC II Author Team and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-03 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change along with the global effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, namely atmospheric aerosols and land-cover change. The evidence collected and presented in this book shows that the regional climate has already started to change and this is expected to continue. Projections of potential future climates show that the region will probably become considerably warmer and wetter in some parts, but dryer in others. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have already shown adjustments to increased temperatures and are expected to undergo further changes in the near future. The BACC II Author Team consists of 141 scientists from 12 countries, covering various disciplines related to climate research and related impacts. BACC II is a project of the Baltic Earth research network and contributes to the World Climate Research Programme.
Book Synopsis Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems by : Graeme L. Hammer
Download or read book Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems written by Graeme L. Hammer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to: farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems); regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna). Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.
Book Synopsis Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations by : J. Shukla
Download or read book Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations written by J. Shukla and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.
Book Synopsis General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere by : Julius Chang
Download or read book General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere written by Julius Chang and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-12-02 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methods in Computational Physics, Volume 17: General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere is a five-chapter text that covers the fundamentals and application of general circulation models to solving practical problems related to the atmosphere. The first chapter describes the various options in modeling physical processes and computational procedures. The next two chapters illustrate the influence of practical considerations to the compromise between a detailed physical description and reasonable computing time. Other chapters outline the computational details of two different numerical schemes for general circulation models. These chapters particularly provide an in-depth analysis of finite difference methods by proceeding from general considerations of homogeneous incompressible flow to the fine details of the particular numerical scheme. The final chapter discusses the fundamentals of the alternative spectral method for a multilevel spectral model that illustrates the capability of that approach. This book is of value to geoscientists, mathematicians, and physicists.
Book Synopsis The Development of Atmospheric General Circulation Models by : Leo Donner
Download or read book The Development of Atmospheric General Circulation Models written by Leo Donner and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents unique perspectives from leading researchers on the development and application of atmospheric general circulation models. It is a core reference for academic researchers and professionals involved in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climate science, and a resource for graduate-level courses in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction.
Download or read book Droughts written by Donald A. Wilhite and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-17 with total page 1368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drought draws together contributions from over 75 leading international researchers in the field to present the most comprehensive body of research on the physical and social dimensions of drought to date. Including an extensive range of case-studies covering the most drought-prone and most affected countries, the contributors examine new technology, planning methodologies and mitigation actions from recent drought experiences worldwide. Following a discussion of the critical concepts of drought, the work is divided into the following additional parts: · causes and predictability · monitoring and early warning techniques · impacts and assessment methodologies · links between drought and other global issues · conclusions and future challenges
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Book Synopsis Atmospheric Circulation Dynamics and Circulation Models by : Masaki Satoh
Download or read book Atmospheric Circulation Dynamics and Circulation Models written by Masaki Satoh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-05-03 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the methods used to construct general circulation models of the atmosphere, and how such models perform in applications relating to the real climate and environmental systems. The author describes the fundamental dynamics of the atmospheric circulation, modelling of the general circulation, and applications of GCMs. The book consists of three parts: - Part 1 summarizes the physical processes involved, including basic equations, waves and instabilities; - Part 2 covers atmospheric structures, including various types of one- and two-dimensional structures and circulations; - Part 3 describes the basic notions for construction of general circulation models of the atmosphere and their applications. Atmospheric Circulation Dynamics and General Circulation Methods includes an appendix incorporating the basic data and mathematical formulae required to enable readers to construct GCMs for themselves.
Book Synopsis Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports by :
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 1652 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Future of the World's Climate by : Ann Henderson-Sellers
Download or read book The Future of the World's Climate written by Ann Henderson-Sellers and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-01-31 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The study of climate today seems to be dominated by global warming, but these predictions of climatic models must be placed in their geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context to create a complete picture of the Earth's future climate. The Future of the World's Climate presents that perspective with data and projections that have emerged from more technologically advanced and accurate climate modeling"--Publisher's website.
Book Synopsis Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Disasters by : Manish Kumar Goyal
Download or read book Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Disasters written by Manish Kumar Goyal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-29 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The edited book provides both fundamentals as well as key factors of climate change, extreme events and disaster risk management. It systematically describes the integrated risk of various hydro-meteorological extreme events. The book brings together broad range of topics including basic concepts, exposure, risk, resilience and vulnerability. In addition, it also analysis the impact of various disaster events on bio-diversity, local communities, ecosystem and agricultural food production. The motive is to define remediation strategies in the fields of resilient infrastructures, communication strategies and immediate public participation. The book is presented in four parts, where part 1 familiarizes with fundamentals of hydro-meteorological based disasters; Part 2 focuses on risk and vulnerability analysis; Part 3 focuses on risk remediation options; and part 4 suggests the role of sustainable planning framework on disaster risk management. This volume is of interest and use to professionals and researchers working in climate change, atmospheric sciences and disaster management.
