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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 115 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (751 download)
Download or read book Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 113671569X
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (367 download)
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136715681
Total Pages : 318 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (367 download)
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691140138
Total Pages : 566 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author : William S. Mallios
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118099532
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets written by William S. Mallios and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-29 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000458873
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Probability, Choice, and Reason written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139445405
Total Pages : 412 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.
Author : David Peel
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131798823X
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)
Download or read book Economics of Betting Markets written by David Peel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-13 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last few decades, commercial gambling has increased substantially throughout the Western world. More people than ever before have access to sources of legalised gambling, leading to bumper revenues for the institutions involved. Naturally enough, this has led to an increased interest in the area of the economics of betting. This book addresses the issues raised by the continued growth of the gambling sector. How can we model the behaviour of people who seemingly act irrationally? What are the implications of different tax policies with regard to gambling? Are casinos capable of taking money away from state-run lotteries and the causes they fund? Can bookmakers’ odds be influenced in such a way as to make the gambling market inefficient? The authors in this volume provide insights based on data from many different countries, including England, the USA, Australia, Spain and Cyprus. This volume brings together work which addresses the economic impact of the huge growth of commercial gambling in the Western world, as well as trying to model the cognitive processes which can explain why individuals are prepared to behave in such apparently irrational ways. This book was published as a special issue of Applied Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Author : John O. McGinnis
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691151024
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)
Download or read book Accelerating Democracy written by John O. McGinnis and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how politicians and citizens can use technology to enhance American democracy.
Author : Pekka Sulkunen
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192549464
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Setting Limits written by Pekka Sulkunen and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-12-13 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commercial gambling is a recent historical phenomenon. It has developed into a profitable industry that supplies a range of recreational activities to its customers, and is a significant way of collecting money from players to distribute to companies, state budgets, and other beneficiaries. Many of these are civil society organizations, using the money for producing services in sports, culture, social work, and health care. However, gambling can also develop into pathological behaviour. Using a public interest framework, this book discusses the policies that will best serve the public good and minimize individual and collective harms. After describing the historical context of the gambling and the current global burden of the activity, available methods of regulating the industry are evaluated using the available scientific evidence. By analysing the effectiveness of gambling policies and their alignment with the public interest, the epidemiological obstacles to successful regulation are considered in detail. There is good evidence for the effectiveness of restrictions on availability and access, but preventing gambling-related harm is not possible without limiting the overall volume of the activity, and hence the profits for the gambling industry and governments. Taking an international approach, this book delivers a comprehensive review of the epidemiological evidence documenting the harmful effects of gambling on individuals, communities, and societies. Essential reading for policymakers, social and behavioural scientists in gambling research, and public health researchers, Setting Limits examines a global view of an emerging epidemic of gambling problems.
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019937662X
Total Pages : 740 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-11-12 with total page 740 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is growing interest among academics and policymakers in the economics of gambling, which has been stimulated by major regulatory and tax changes in the U.S., U.K. Continental Europe, Asia, Australia and elsewhere. Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive source of path-breaking research on this topic. To fill this gap, we commissioned chapters from leading economists on all aspects of gambling research. Topics covered include the optimal taxation structure for various forms of gambling, factors influencing the demand and supply of gambling services, forecasting of gambling trends, regulation of gambling, the efficiency of racetrack and sports betting markets, gambling prevalence and behavior, modeling the demand for gambling services, the economic impact of gambling, substitution and complementarities among different types of gambling activity, and the relationship between gambling and other sectors of the economy. These are all important issues, with significant global implications. Specifically, we divide the Handbook into sections on casinos, sports betting, horserace betting, betting strategy, motivation, behavior and decision-making in betting markets, prediction markets and political betting, and lotteries and gambling machines
Author : Mark Andrejevic
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135119511
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Infoglut written by Mark Andrejevic and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-26 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, more mediated information is available to more people than at any other time in human history. New and revitalized sense-making strategies multiply in response to the challenges of "cutting through the clutter" of competing narratives and taming the avalanche of information. Data miners, "sentiment analysts," and decision markets offer to help bodies of data "speak for themselves"—making sense of their own patterns so we don’t have to. Neuromarketers and body language experts promise to peer behind people’s words to see what their brains are really thinking and feeling. New forms of information processing promise to displace the need for expertise and even comprehension—at least for those with access to the data. Infoglut explores the connections between these wide-ranging sense-making strategies for an era of information overload and "big data," and the new forms of control they enable. Andrejevic critiques the popular embrace of deconstructive debunkery, calling into question the post-truth, post-narrative, and post-comprehension politics it underwrites, and tracing a way beyond them.
Author : Michael Egerer
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319906208
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)
Download or read book Gambling Policies in European Welfare States written by Michael Egerer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-28 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited book draws on a cross-cultural and historical lens to theoretically and practically analyse gambling regulations and the use of gambling revenue. It takes on a broad spectrum of perspectives, from the origin of the money, to the regulators, operators and beneficiaries of gambling, and looks at the interests, networks and power relations involved. This multidisciplinary collection elicits a shift in analysis, shedding light on a broader societal, historical and economic view of gambling and gambling policies, by its attention to implicit networks of power, influential legislation, gambling provision and infrastructure. Gambling Policies in European Welfare States will be of interest to students and scholars alike who are seeking cross-national and interdisciplinary analyses of welfare, politics, sociology and economics.
Author : William R. Eadington
Publisher : University of Nevada Press
ISBN 13 : 9780942828375
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (283 download)
Download or read book Gambling written by William R. Eadington and published by University of Nevada Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because of the rapid spread of permitted gambling, social scientists have begun to examine a wide variety of impacts associated with gambling. This volume offers a selection of such analysis of modern gambling and its implications for society. By adding to the base of knowledge about the consequences of permitted gambling, good, bad and ambiguous, such research should help the public policy process in the future.
Author : Donald B. Hausch
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080559956
Total Pages : 561 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets written by Donald B. Hausch and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lottery markets make this volume a winner. These markets are simpler to study than traditional financial markets, and their expected values and outcomes are uncomplicated. By means of new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets. Easily studied sports markets reveal features relevant for more complex traditional financial markets Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai New studies of betting exchanges and Internet wagering markets
Author : Patrick Alan Pierce
Publisher : Lynne Rienner Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781588262684
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (626 download)
Download or read book Gambling Politics written by Patrick Alan Pierce and published by Lynne Rienner Publishers. This book was released on 2004 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the dramatic growth of legal gambling in the United States--and the shifting and often contentious politics accompanying its spread.
Author : Michael Abramowicz
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300144954
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Predictocracy written by Michael Abramowicz and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
