Forecasting Skewness in Stock Returns

Download Forecasting Skewness in Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Skewness in Stock Returns by : Mariko Fujii

Download or read book Forecasting Skewness in Stock Returns written by Mariko Fujii and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting Crashes

Download Forecasting Crashes PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Crashes by : Joseph Chen

Download or read book Forecasting Crashes written by Joseph Chen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

Analyst Forecast Skewness and Cross Section Stock Returns

Download Analyst Forecast Skewness and Cross Section Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Analyst Forecast Skewness and Cross Section Stock Returns by : Cai Zhu

Download or read book Analyst Forecast Skewness and Cross Section Stock Returns written by Cai Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the paper, we show a significant economic linkage between analyst EPS forecast skewness and cross section stock returns. The effect on stock return of our skewness measure is quite different from that based on skewness calculated from options or high frequency data. Literature shows that, using such skewness as a signal, trading profit is generated mostly from over-valued stocks with high positive skewness, which is consistent with Barberis and Huang (2008)'s lottery arguments. However, we find that for our analyst forecast skewness, trading profit mainly comes from those stocks with negative skewness. Long-short strategy purchasing stocks with low forecast skewness and shorting those with high forecast skewness earns annualized abnormal returns 11% with sharpe ratio 0.64. Our study suggests that negative skewness stocks tend to be undervalued (risk-adjusted returns for negative skewness stocks are significantly positive), while stocks with high positive skewness have fair prices (risk-adjusted returns for positive skewness stocks are not significant). Our empirical results are closely related with investors learning behavior and consistent with Veronesi (1999) theory. In the model, Veronesi shows that when investors cannot observe cash flow growth rate, they tend to overreact to bad news, push current stock price down, such behavior will lead to higher future stock returns. Our results also hold when using robust skewness defined as the gap between analyst EPS forecast mean and median.

Forecasting Crashes

Download Forecasting Crashes PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Crashes by : Joseph Chen

Download or read book Forecasting Crashes written by Joseph Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

Forecasting Crashes

Download Forecasting Crashes PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Crashes by : Xun Gong

Download or read book Forecasting Crashes written by Xun Gong and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses the correlation of money flow among mutual funds to forecast the skewness of stock returns. We show that asset returns are highly negatively skewed when their mutual fund owners experience correlated liquidity shocks. In addition, stocks with high mutual fund ownership are more “crash prone”, whereas the returns of stocks with concentrated ownership tend to display more positive skewness.

Forecasting Asymmetries in Aggregate Stock Market Returns

Download Forecasting Asymmetries in Aggregate Stock Market Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Asymmetries in Aggregate Stock Market Returns by : C. James Hueng

Download or read book Forecasting Asymmetries in Aggregate Stock Market Returns written by C. James Hueng and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a time-series test for the Differences-of-Opinion theory proposed by Hong and Stein (2003) in the aggregate market, thus extending Chen, Hong, and Stein's (2001) cross-sectional test for this theory across individual stocks. An autoregressive conditional density model with a skewed-t distribution is used to estimate the effects of past trading volume on return asymmetry. Using NYSE and AMEX data from 1962 to 2000, we find that the prediction of the Hong-Stein model that negative skewness will be most pronounced under high trading volume conditions is not supported in our time-series analysis with market data.

Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics

Download Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9781461477495
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (774 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics by : Cheng-Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​The Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics provides, in four volumes and over 100 chapters, a comprehensive overview of the primary methodologies in econometrics and statistics as applied to financial research. Including overviews of key concepts by the editors and in-depth contributions from leading scholars around the world, the Handbook is the definitive resource for both classic and cutting-edge theories, policies, and analytical techniques in the field. Volume 1 (Parts I and II) covers all of the essential theoretical and empirical approaches. Volumes 2, 3, and 4 feature contributed entries that showcase the application of financial econometrics and statistics to such topics as asset pricing, investment and portfolio research, option pricing, mutual funds, and financial accounting research. Throughout, the Handbook offers illustrative case examples and applications, worked equations, and extensive references, and includes both subject and author indices.​

Skewness in Stock Returns

Download Skewness in Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (643 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Skewness in Stock Returns by : Rui Henrique Pereira Leite Albuquerque

Download or read book Skewness in Stock Returns written by Rui Henrique Pereira Leite Albuquerque and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Empirical Asset Pricing

Download Empirical Asset Pricing PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118589475
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Turan G. Bali

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

Skewness and Dispersion of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Download Skewness and Dispersion of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Skewness and Dispersion of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns by : Jinghan Meng

Download or read book Skewness and Dispersion of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Jinghan Meng and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the degree of dispersion and asymmetry of analysts' earnings forecasts is related to future stock returns. When skewness is negative, future returns are decreasing in the degree of dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts; when skewness is positive, future returns are increasing in the degree of dispersion of analysts earnings forecasts. We develop a model that incorporates dispersion and asymmetry in agents' beliefs that can account for these empirical facts.

Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet

Download Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 77 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet by : Christian L. Goulding

Download or read book Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet written by Christian L. Goulding and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I test the predictions of a new asset pricing model regarding the interaction of ex-ante return skewness and the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts on a sample of U.S. stocks. I present evidence that skewness and forecast dispersion have an interactive pricing impact, that forecast dispersion has no marginal impact unless stocks exhibit ex-ante skewness, and that higher risk or risk aversion is associated with a deepening of their joint effect. The averagereturn gap between stocks in the 5th and 95th percentiles by skewness and dispersion is 1.61% monthly (19.3% annualized). These otherwise anomalous discoveries comprise new cross-sectional features of expected stock returns.

Handbook of Financial Time Series

Download Handbook of Financial Time Series PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540712976
Total Pages : 1045 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Time Series by : Torben Gustav Andersen

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Time Series written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 1045 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.

Skewness in Stock Returns

Download Skewness in Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Skewness in Stock Returns by : Rui A. Albuquerque

Download or read book Skewness in Stock Returns written by Rui A. Albuquerque and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate stock market returns display negative skewness. Firm stock returns display positive skewness. The large literature that tries to explain the first stylized fact ignores the second. This article provides a unified theory that reconciles the two facts by explicitly modeling firm-level heterogeneity. I build a stationary asset pricing model of firm announcement events where firm returns display positive skewness. I then show that cross-sectional heterogeneity in firm announcement events can lead to conditional asymmetric stock return correlations and negative skewness in aggregate returns. I provide evidence consistent with the model predictions.

Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns

Download Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns by : Turan G. Bali

Download or read book Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns written by Turan G. Bali and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns are related to both the systematic and unsystematic components of volatility, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are related to the cross section of expected stock returns after controlling for other variables known to be related to the cross section of expected stock returns or analyst forecast bias.

Systematic Trading

Download Systematic Trading PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 085719500X
Total Pages : 247 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Systematic Trading by : Robert Carver

Download or read book Systematic Trading written by Robert Carver and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2015-09-14 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is not just another book with yet another trading system. This is a complete guide to developing your own systems to help you make and execute trading and investing decisions. It is intended for everyone who wishes to systematise their financial decision making, either completely or to some degree. Author Robert Carver draws on financial theory, his experience managing systematic hedge fund strategies and his own in-depth research to explain why systematic trading makes sense and demonstrates how it can be done safely and profitably. Every aspect, from creating trading rules to position sizing, is thoroughly explained. The framework described here can be used with all assets, including equities, bonds, forex and commodities. There is no magic formula that will guarantee success, but cutting out simple mistakes will improve your performance. You'll learn how to avoid common pitfalls such as over-complicating your strategy, being too optimistic about likely returns, taking excessive risks and trading too frequently. Important features include: - The theory behind systematic trading: why and when it works, and when it doesn't. - Simple and effective ways to design effective strategies. - A complete position management framework which can be adapted for your needs. - How fully systematic traders can create or adapt trading rules to forecast prices. - Making discretionary trading decisions within a systematic framework for position management. - Why traditional long only investors should use systems to ensure proper diversification, and avoid costly and unnecessary portfolio churn. - Adapting strategies depending on the cost of trading and how much capital is being used. - Practical examples from UK, US and international markets showing how the framework can be used. Systematic Trading is detailed, comprehensive and full of practical advice. It provides a unique new approach to system development and a must for anyone considering using systems to make some, or all, of their investment decisions.

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

Download Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 9780750655156
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (551 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : John L. Knight

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by John L. Knight and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2002 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Download Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444536841
Total Pages : 719 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics