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Forecasting National Activity Using Lots Of International Predictors
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Book Synopsis Forecasting National Activity Using Lots of International Predictors by : Sandra Eickmeier
Download or read book Forecasting National Activity Using Lots of International Predictors written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many countries. The methods covered are principal components, targeted predictors, weighted principal components, partial least squares, elastic net and ridge regression. Using these methods, we assess the marginal predictive content of international data for New Zealand GDP growth. We find that exploiting a large number of international predictors can improve forecasts of our target variable, compared to more traditional models based on small datasets. This is in spite of New Zealand survey data capturing a substantial proportion of the predictive information in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and partial least squares performing best. We also assess the type of international data that contains the most predictive information for New Zealand growth over our sample.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries. Subcommittee on Oceanography Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (5 download)
Book Synopsis NACOA and NOAA Oversight by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries. Subcommittee on Oceanography
Download or read book NACOA and NOAA Oversight written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries. Subcommittee on Oceanography and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Alejandro Dizan Vasquez Govea Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3642136419 Total Pages :159 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (421 download)
Book Synopsis Incremental Learning for Motion Prediction of Pedestrians and Vehicles by : Alejandro Dizan Vasquez Govea
Download or read book Incremental Learning for Motion Prediction of Pedestrians and Vehicles written by Alejandro Dizan Vasquez Govea and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-23 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the problem of moving in a cluttered environment with pedestrians and vehicles. A framework based on Hidden Markov models is developed to learn typical motion patterns which can be used to predict motion on the basis of sensor data.
Book Synopsis Climate Prediction and Agriculture by : Mannava VK Sivakumar
Download or read book Climate Prediction and Agriculture written by Mannava VK Sivakumar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-26 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on an International Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, this book reviews the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture. It also identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhance operational applications of climate predictions in agriculture, especially in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Federal Planning Guide for MAREP (Marine Environmental Prediction) by : United States. Ad Hoc Marine Environment Prediction Task Group
Download or read book Federal Planning Guide for MAREP (Marine Environmental Prediction) written by United States. Ad Hoc Marine Environment Prediction Task Group and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards by : J. Nemec
Download or read book Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards written by J. Nemec and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles provides a unique overview of the state of the science in the prediction of and response to natural disaster events. The uniqueness of this volume is that it comprises more than just the physical science perspective. For each natural hazard included in this text, social scientists have provided research summaries of how public perceptions are related to the actions that are likely to be undertaken when people are confronted with information about the existence of a natural hazard threat. In this book the reader can find a truly international characterization of both hazard perception and prediction. The American and European contributors provide state-of-the-science overviews of empirically-based research knowledge that expands beyond any national boundaries. This approach has resulted in broader understanding of what is currently known about predicting natural hazard events and predicting how those events, or warnings of them, will be responded to by different types of societies.
Book Synopsis Basic Radio Propagation Predictions for ... Three Months in Advance by :
Download or read book Basic Radio Propagation Predictions for ... Three Months in Advance written by and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change by : U.C. Mohanty
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Author :Task Group for the Interagency Committee on Ocean Exploration and Environmental Services Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :292 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (3 download)
Book Synopsis Federal Planning Guide for Marine Environmental Prediction (MAREP) by : Task Group for the Interagency Committee on Ocean Exploration and Environmental Services
Download or read book Federal Planning Guide for Marine Environmental Prediction (MAREP) written by Task Group for the Interagency Committee on Ocean Exploration and Environmental Services and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Basic Radio Propagation Predictions by :
Download or read book Basic Radio Propagation Predictions written by and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Prediction and Recognition of Piracy Efforts Using Collaborative Human-centric Information Systems by : Éloi Bossé
Download or read book Prediction and Recognition of Piracy Efforts Using Collaborative Human-centric Information Systems written by Éloi Bossé and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maritime piracy is the cause of widespread international concern, and the number of pirate attacks has increased substantially in recent years. Many commercial vessels are inherently vulnerable to attack because of their size and relative slowness, and technological improvements have resulted in smaller crews on large vessels, whilst the absence of enforcement agencies in international waters has served only to make pirates more daring. Collaborative human-centric information support systems can significantly improve the ability of every nation to predict and prevent pirate attacks, or to recognize the nature and size of an attack rapidly when prevention fails, and improve the collective response to an emergency. This book presents the papers delivered at the NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) Prediction and Recognition of Piracy Efforts Using Collaborative Human-Centric Information Systems, held in Salamanca, Spain, in September 2011. A significant observation from previous NATO Advanced Study Institutes and Workshops was that domain experts responsible for maritime security were not fully aware of the wide variety of technological solutions available to enhance their support systems, and that although technology experts have a general understanding of the requirements in security systems, they often lacked knowledge concerning the operational constraints affecting those who implement security procedures. This ASI involved both technology and domain experts, as well as students from related fields of study. It offered an opportunity for them to discuss the issues surrounding the prediction, recognition and deterrence of maritime piracy, and will be of interest to all those whose work is related to this internationally important issue.
Book Synopsis Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity by : Richard Frank Donnelly
Download or read book Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity written by Richard Frank Donnelly and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Reflections on 25 Years of Analysis, Diagnosis, and Prediction by : Climate Prediction Center (U.S.)
Download or read book Reflections on 25 Years of Analysis, Diagnosis, and Prediction written by Climate Prediction Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Solar-terrestrial Predictions Proceedings: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity by : Richard Frank Donnelly
Download or read book Solar-terrestrial Predictions Proceedings: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity written by Richard Frank Donnelly and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
