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Forecasting In The 21st Century
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Book Synopsis The next 100 years by : George Friedman
Download or read book The next 100 years written by George Friedman and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 2009 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George Friedman, founder of Stratfor and leading expert in geopolitical forecasting, shares his thoughts on current trends and near-future events that will impact every country on Earth.
Book Synopsis Forecasting, Planning, and Strategy for the 21st Century by : Spyros G. Makridakis
Download or read book Forecasting, Planning, and Strategy for the 21st Century written by Spyros G. Makridakis and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Makridakis presents a non-technical reassessment of forecasting, planning, and strategy that will be welcomed by every manager who has ever struggled with a long-range plan.
Book Synopsis The Next 100 Years by : George Friedman
Download or read book The Next 100 Years written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2010-01-26 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
Book Synopsis Managing the Future by : Stephen M. Millett
Download or read book Managing the Future written by Stephen M. Millett and published by Triarchy Press. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to forecasting and strategic planning for organizations
Book Synopsis Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century by : William C. Potter
Download or read book Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century written by William C. Potter and published by Stanford Security Studies. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.
Book Synopsis Forecasting in the 21st Century by : G. A. McBean
Download or read book Forecasting in the 21st Century written by G. A. McBean and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the ninth in the series of IMO Lectures, which was presented at the Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress by G.A. McBean. This lecture presents a future of meteorology in general, and that of weather forecasting in the 21st century in particular.--Publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Student-Driven Learning Strategies for the 21st Century Classroom by : Alias, Nor Aziah
Download or read book Student-Driven Learning Strategies for the 21st Century Classroom written by Alias, Nor Aziah and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-11-09 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The creation of a successful learning environment involves the examination and improvement upon current teaching practices. As new strategies emerge, it becomes imperative to incorporate them into the classroom. Student-Driven Learning Strategies for the 21st Century Classroom provides a thorough examination of the benefits and challenges experienced in learner-driven educational settings and how to effectively engage students in these environments. Focusing on technological perspectives, emerging pedagogies, and curriculum development, this book is ideally designed for educators, learning designers, upper-level students, professionals, and researchers interested in innovative approaches to student-driven education.
Book Synopsis Encounters with the Future by : Marvin J. Cetron
Download or read book Encounters with the Future written by Marvin J. Cetron and published by New York ; Toronto : McGraw-Hill. This book was released on 1982 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicts how the world will be twenty years from now by looking at the underlying social, technological and political changes that are shaping our lives today. The authors see a brighter, less dangerous, wealthier future ahead and back their forecasts up with impressive credentials and research. Among their predictions are ones that foresee taxes generally going down, stock prices up, robots taking over the factories and fusion power ending the energy crisis forever.
Book Synopsis America's Secret War by : George Friedman
Download or read book America's Secret War written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2005-10-11 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George Friedman delivers the geopolitical story that the mainstream media has been unable to uncover — the startling truth behind America’s foreign policy and war effort in Afghanistan, Iraq, and beyond. Friedman, founder of Stratfor, one of the world’s most respected private global intelligence firms, and Geopolitical Futures, has an unmatched ability to provide clear perspective on the current geopolitical map. In America's Secret War, George Friedman identifies the United States’ most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of 9/11—and the Bush administration’s motivation for the war in Iraq. It describes in eye-opening detail America’s covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism: Not only are U.S. armies in combat on every continent, but since 9/11 the intelligence services of dozens of nations have been operating in close partnership with the CIA. Drawing on his vast information-gathering network, Friedman presents an insightful picture of today’s world that goes far beyond what is reported on television and in other news media. Al Qaeda’s war plans and how they led to 9/11 The threat of a suitcase nuclear bomb in New York and how that changed the course of the war. The deal the U.S. made with Russia and Iran which made the invasion of Afghanistan possible – and how those deals affect the United States today. How fear and suspicion of the Saudis after 9-11 tore apart the Bush-Saudi relationship and why Saudi Arabia’s closest friends in the administration became the Saudi’s worst enemies. The real reasons behind George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and how WMD became the cover for a much deeper game. How the CIA miscalculated about Saddam Hussein’s and Iran’s real plans, leaving the U.S. bogged down in the war. How the war in Iraq began with a ruse, pretending that a “target of opportunity” attack on Saddam Hussein had presented itself. The real story about why the U.S. raises and lowers its alert status and why the United States can’t find and destroy al Qaeda. The strategic successes that are slowly leading the United States to victory America's Secret War is an unprecedented look at the new world war being waged behind-the-scenes today. It is sure to stir debate and capture headlines around the world.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author :Ulrich Fritsche Publisher :Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN 13 :9783631793169 Total Pages :220 pages Book Rating :4.7/5 (931 download)
Book Synopsis Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century by : Ulrich Fritsche
Download or read book Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century written by Ulrich Fritsche and published by Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften. This book was released on 2020-04-06 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis. Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost its importance. Futures Past considers the history and present state of economic forecasting, giving a fascinating account of the changing practices involved, their origins, records, and their implications. By bringing together economists, historians, and sociologists, this volume offers fresh perspectives on the place of forecasting in modern industrial societies, thereby making a broader claim for greater interdisciplinary cooperation in the history of economics.
Book Synopsis Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting by : George J. McCormack
Download or read book Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting written by George J. McCormack and published by Astrology Classics. This book was released on 2012-04 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George J. McCormack, (1887-1974) had a life-long interest in astrology and the weather. Inspired by the astrometeorological work of A.J. Pearce (1840-1923), McCormack meticulously tracked and recorded the weather, from before World War I, until his death more than half a century later. In 1947, after 23 years of research, he published his "key" to long-range weather forecasting, being this book. Confident of his ability, in the spring of 1947 McCormack predicted one of the most severe winters in decades, specifically forecasting the infamous snows of December 26, 1947. He was nationally famous overnight. The techniques he used are in this amazing book. With study, they will become yours. The weather bureau predicts the weather, day by day, by careful observation of current conditions. You can learn to predict based on underlying celestial factors, which can be known months, even years, in advance. In 1963, before the US Weather Bureau, and again in 1964, before the American Meteorological Society, McCormack presented his life's work. Both groups ignored him, to our great loss. Use this book, make a better choice.
Book Synopsis Neural Networks in Business Forecasting by : G. Peter Zhang
Download or read book Neural Networks in Business Forecasting written by G. Peter Zhang and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is one of the most important activities that form the basis for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in all business organizations. Recently, neural networks have emerged as an important tool for business forecasting. There are considerable interests and applications in forecasting using neural networks. Neural Networks in Business Forecasting provides for researchers and practitioners some recent advances in applying neural networks to business forecasting. A number of case studies demonstrating the innovative or successful applications of neural networks to many areas of business as well as methods to improve neural network forecasting performance are presented.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Methods for Managementy for the 21st Century by : Spyros Makridakis
Download or read book Forecasting Methods for Managementy for the 21st Century written by Spyros Makridakis and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1989 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Extreme Future by : James Canton
Download or read book The Extreme Future written by James Canton and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2006-09-21 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. James Canton, a renowned futurist, CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, and Fortune 1000 advisor, charts a course to steer you through the volatile changes that lie 5, 10, and 20 years ahead. The Extreme Future is this generation’s Future Shock, Alvin Toffler’s classic book on what’s next and how to prepare for tomorrow. Get ready for fast, radical and complex change. Get ready for the Extreme Future. Our world is constantly buffeted by new and dramatic changes that we can’t fully grasp. No one is fully prepared for the challenges, crises and risks that lie ahead. The Extreme Future is a blueprint for what’s next and how to navigate these changes. An advisor to three White House’s spanning more than 30 years, Dr. Canton challenges us that with the right information about future trends it is possible to identify probable outcomes. It is possible, with the right information to navigate the Extreme Future. The book covers the following major trends: How climate change and energy trends will reshape the planet How shifting population trends will transform the workforce How radical innovation trends will competitively drive business How astounding medicine trends will enhance people’s life How dangerous terrorism trends will threaten the individual. How the rise of China will bring on a new global power struggle The answers to these questions are not only available, but contained within these pages. The Extreme Future is the forecasting handbook for the twenty-first century.
Book Synopsis Forecasting in the 21st Century by : G. A. McBean
Download or read book Forecasting in the 21st Century written by G. A. McBean and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the ninth in the series of IMO Lectures, which was presented at the Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress by G.A. McBean. This lecture presents a future of meteorology in general, and that of weather forecasting in the 21st century in particular.--Publisher's description.
