Forecasting Government Budgets

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Government Budget Forecasting

Author : Jinping Sun
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420045830
Total Pages : 662 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Budget Forecasting by : Jinping Sun

Download or read book Government Budget Forecasting written by Jinping Sun and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-03-26 with total page 662 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

Government Budget Forecasting

Author : Jinping Sun
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351565117
Total Pages : 637 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Budget Forecasting by : Jinping Sun

Download or read book Government Budget Forecasting written by Jinping Sun and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-25 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

Forecasting Government Budgets

Author : Aman Khan
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1793613117
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (936 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Government Budgets by : Aman Khan

Download or read book Forecasting Government Budgets written by Aman Khan and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-12-15 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is integral to all governmental activities, especially budgetary activities. Without good and accurate forecasts, a government will not only find it difficult to carry out its everyday operations but will also find it difficult to cope with the increasingly complex environment in which it has to operate. This book presents, in a simple and easy to understand manner, some of the commonly used methods in budget forecasting, simple as well as advanced. The book is divided into three parts: It begins with an overview of forecasting background, forecasting process, and forecasting methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the actual methods in Parts I, II, and III. Part I discusses a combination of basic time series models such as percentage average, simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average, double as well as triple, simple trend line, time-series with cyclical variation, and time-series regression, with single and multiple independent variables. Part II discusses some of the more advanced, but frequently used time series models, such as ARIMA, regular as well as seasonal, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC). Part III provides an overview of three of the more recent advances in time series models, namely ensemble forecasting, state-space forecasting, and neural network. The book concludes with a brief discussion of some practical issues in budget forecasting.

The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting

Author : Daniel Williams
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030181952
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting by : Daniel Williams

Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting written by Daniel Williams and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-14 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government

Author : Howard A. Frank
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government by : Howard A. Frank

Download or read book Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government written by Howard A. Frank and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1993-11-23 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local governments are hard-pressed to balance their budgets in the 1990s. Part of any budget-balancing effort is accurate forecasting. In this new work, Howard Frank introduces time-tested forecasting techniques from the private sector and military in a local forecasting environment. In a lucid, user-friendly treatment, Frank shows how simple and complex methods can be put to use in the contemporary local government setting. Through examples--many of them from his own research--the author delineates the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and non-quantitative forecasting methods. Frank also shows how these techniques can be used to monitor changes in public programs--an increasingly important part of contemporary budget execution. Frank does not assume an extensive mathematical or statistical background on the part of the reader--indeed, a forecast neophyte will have no difficulty understanding the text. Questions at the end of each chapter focus the reader on the major concepts and provide insights on practical applications within the urban setting. A cornerstone of the work is that local forecasters must be intelligent experimenters with the new tools--there is no canned advice that applies to all cities and forecast situations. But with application of forecasting approaches treated in this unique work, local budgeters--and those in training to become budgeters--will be able to adopt forecasting approaches that have been underutilized in local government.

Forecasting Local Government Spending

Author : Claudia Devita Scott
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Local Government Spending by : Claudia Devita Scott

Download or read book Forecasting Local Government Spending written by Claudia Devita Scott and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance

Author : Aman Khan
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031536746
Total Pages : 531 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance by : Aman Khan

Download or read book Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance written by Aman Khan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States

Author : Michael J. Brogan
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 0739168401
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States by : Michael J. Brogan

Download or read book Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States written by Michael J. Brogan and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.

Understanding Government Budgets

Author : R. Mark Musell
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315474840
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Government Budgets by : R. Mark Musell

Download or read book Understanding Government Budgets written by R. Mark Musell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public budgets follow rules of presentation and use terms that make sense to few outside the world of public finance. Moreover, practices vary widely among the thousands of governments across the globe, between federal, state, and local levels of government in the United States, and among nonprofit organizations, many of which provide services similar to governments. Understanding Government Budgets, Second Edition offers a detailed examination of each of the different types of information found in budgets, featuring annotated examples from a variety of organizations. It expands on explanations in the previous edition by including a wealth of examples from governments abroad and from the nonprofit sector. The book stresses that the choices made about content, format, and organization influence the story a budget tells. Designed to help citizens, students, and policy makers become more informed users of public budgets, this book makes the format of budgets and the information they contain accessible and understandable, providing users with the tools they need to make better sense of public organizations and their performance. Complete with online instructor support material including sample problems, in-class exercises, and discussion questions for each chapter, Understanding Government Budgets, Second Edition is perfect for undergraduate or graduate-level courses in budgeting and public administration, and offers a useful guide to budgets for citizens with an interest in how government operates.

Forecasting Local Government Budgets

Author : Roy W. Bahl
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (624 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Local Government Budgets by : Roy W. Bahl

Download or read book Forecasting Local Government Budgets written by Roy W. Bahl and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting in government to achieve value for money

Author : Great Britain: National Audit Office
Publisher : Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780102987485
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (874 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting in government to achieve value for money by : Great Britain: National Audit Office

Download or read book Forecasting in government to achieve value for money written by Great Britain: National Audit Office and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-01-31 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High-quality forecasting is an essential part of achieving value for money for the taxpayer. Since 2010, more than 70 of the NAO's reports have identified forecasting weaknesses. For example, the Department for Education initially underestimated the scale of demand for its academies programme and did not develop robust cost estimates. To remain within spending limits without restricting the pace or scale of the expansion, it used additional contingency funding of £105m and reassigned £244m from other budgets. 'Optimism bias' and poor quality data are among the root causes of departments' poor production and use of forecasts. Analysts have expressed concern that they are under pressure to provide supportive rather than realistic forecasts; and over half the analysts surveyed by the NAO identified a lack of good-quality data as preventing good forecasting. While the Treasury has introduced incentives to improve forecasting, these are at risk of being overwhelmed by the need to meet Parliament's requirements not to breach end of year spending totals. Most Finance Directors responding to the NAO survey considered that the spending control framework incentivised them to over-budget and underspend. In 2012-13, underspending increased to £11.5 billion, nearly three times the recent average. The Treasury encouraged underspends for Budget 2013; however, the NAO is concerned that the Treasury's flexing of the budget exchange rules (allowing departments to carry forward a forecast underspend from one year to the next) was not clearly related to the quality of individual departments' financial management

Handbook of Public Budgeting

Author : Jack Rabin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780824785925
Total Pages : 758 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (859 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Public Budgeting by : Jack Rabin

Download or read book Handbook of Public Budgeting written by Jack Rabin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1992-02-26 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook is organized around two major themes: the budget process and budgeting fundamentals. Each chapter is a bibliographical treatise providing an in-depth overview of a major subfield of the disciple. The first section of the volume, on the budget process, presents background theories, histo

Understanding Government Budgets

Author : R. Mark Musell
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135855552
Total Pages : 151 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (358 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Government Budgets by : R. Mark Musell

Download or read book Understanding Government Budgets written by R. Mark Musell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-09-10 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budgets in the United States follow rules of presentation and use terms that make sense to few outside the world of government finance. Moreover, practices vary widely among the thousands of governments in the country, between federal, state, and local levels. Understanding Government Budgets offers detailed explanations of each of the different types of information found in budgets, featuring annotated examples from both state and local budgets, as well as the budget of the federal government. It stresses that the choices made about format and organization influence the story a budget tells about government. The goal of the book is to make the format of budgets and the information they contain accessible and understandable, helping users make better sense of government and its performance. Perfect for undergraduate or graduate level courses in budgeting and public administration, Understanding Government Budgets also makes a useful guide to budgets for the average citizen with an interest in how government operates or journalists writing about it.

Budgeting for Public Managers

Author : John W. Swain
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131747564X
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

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Book Synopsis Budgeting for Public Managers by : John W. Swain

Download or read book Budgeting for Public Managers written by John W. Swain and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Benefiting from the authors' many years of teaching undergraduate and graduate students and practitioners, here is a clear, comprehensive, practice-oriented text for public budgeting courses. Rather than presenting each budgeting concern in mind-numbing detail, the book offers a commonsensical view of public budgeting and its importance to current and future public managers. The text is designed to show readers how managers relate to budgeting and how their actions make a difference in the operation and performance of public organizations. The book covers the historical development of public budgeting, sources of public revenues, revenue management, budgeting processes and formats, operating techniques, politics within public budgeting, and more. "Budgeting for Public Managers" is concise, clearly written, well illustrated, and grounded in the real-world concerns of public managers. Each chapter concludes with a helpful list of additional reading and resources for readers who want to dig deeper into budgeting practice and application.

Oregon Blue Book

Author : Oregon. Office of the Secretary of State
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Oregon Blue Book by : Oregon. Office of the Secretary of State

Download or read book Oregon Blue Book written by Oregon. Office of the Secretary of State and published by . This book was released on 1895 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Budget Tools

Author : Greg G. Chen
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483324052
Total Pages : 580 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Budget Tools by : Greg G. Chen

Download or read book Budget Tools written by Greg G. Chen and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-11-04 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thoroughly updated and expanded Second Edition of Greg G. Chen, Lynne A. Weikart, and Daniel W. Williams’ Budget Tools: Financial Methods in the Public Sector brings together scores of exercises that will take students through the process of public budgeting, from organizing data through analysis and presentation. This thoroughly revised text has been restructured – it now has 30 compact modules to focus on individual skills and enhance flexibility, and is reorganized to cover more straightforward skills early in the book and more complex tools later on. Using budgets from all levels of government as well as from nonprofit organizations, the authors give students the opportunity to work with real budgeting data to cover a range of topics and skills.Budget Tools provides instruction in the techniques and implementation of budgeting skills at a granular level to support a wide range of approaches to teaching the subject.

Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

Author : Mr.Stephan Danninger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451860331
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets by : Mr.Stephan Danninger

Download or read book Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets written by Mr.Stephan Danninger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.