Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical And Fundamental Data Before And During The Financial Crisis

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Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical and Fundamental Data Before and During the Financial Crisis

Author : Gion Donat Piras
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (885 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical and Fundamental Data Before and During the Financial Crisis by : Gion Donat Piras

Download or read book Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical and Fundamental Data Before and During the Financial Crisis written by Gion Donat Piras and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a well known fact that a naive random walk generates better exchange rate forecasts than economic models. The exchange rate is episodically unstable and the switching nature is inconsistent with a linear representation. However, empirical evidence in favour of non-linear models such as regime switching models, neural networks or non-parametric ones is weak. The present paper adopts an econometric method, which incorporates dynamic model averaging (DMA) and selection (DMS). The DMA / DMS framework adds additionally layers of flexibility by allowing parameters as well as the entire forecasting model to evolve over time. In addition this paper takes a different approach by forecasting exchange rates at a daily frequency. Thereby financial data is used as a proxy for macro-economic fundamentals and technical indicators are included in the set of potential predictor variables. The paper shows strong empirical evidence in favour of the employed model in the period before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. During the financial crisis predictability in terms of the mean squared forecast error breaks down. The time-varying evolution of fundamental and technical forecasts allows investigating the evolution of the influence of two types of agents (fundamentalists and chartists) believed to operate in the foreign exchange market.

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451975007
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.

Currency Forecasting

Author : Michael Roy Rosenberg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis Currency Forecasting by : Michael Roy Rosenberg

Download or read book Currency Forecasting written by Michael Roy Rosenberg and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co

The Foreign Exchange Matrix

Author : Barbara Rockefeller
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857191306
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

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Book Synopsis The Foreign Exchange Matrix by : Barbara Rockefeller

Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Matrix written by Barbara Rockefeller and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2013-02-11 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Foreign Exchange Matrix" is the go-to book for sophisticated financial market professionals seeking a deeper understanding of the world of foreign exchange--written by experienced insiders. The book aims to cut through the clutter and present a concise and definitive picture of the market that is not only true, but also useful.

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

Author : John J. Murphy
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735200661
Total Pages : 579 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by : John J. Murphy

Download or read book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets written by John J. Murphy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John J. Murphy has updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.

Exchange Rate Determination

Author : Michael Rosenberg
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071415019
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Determination by : Michael Rosenberg

Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2003-05-19 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.

Forecasting Financial Markets

Author : Tony Plummer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Financial Markets by : Tony Plummer

Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets written by Tony Plummer and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes the mystery out of financial markets by providing a straightforward analytical framework for trading. Offers a unifying rationale for technical analysis of markets, making it more of a science than ever before. Begins with a discussion of how emotional elements permeate economic and financial behaviors and how forecasters can remain independent from such behavior. The more reliable theories of natural systems and price pulse--continuously recurring price patterns--are introduced and examined in detail. The author shows analysts how to use these techniques to forecast price movement profile, extent, and timing of reversals, putting investors on the road to trading with minimum risk and maximum success.

Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals

Author : Mr. Steven A. Symansky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1452763127
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (527 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals by : Mr. Steven A. Symansky

Download or read book Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals written by Mr. Steven A. Symansky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-15 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.

The Role of Technical Indicators in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Author : Ekaterini Panopoulou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Role of Technical Indicators in Exchange Rate Forecasting by : Ekaterini Panopoulou

Download or read book The Role of Technical Indicators in Exchange Rate Forecasting written by Ekaterini Panopoulou and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting exchange rates is a subject of wide interest to both academics and practitioners. We aim at contributing to this vivid research area by highlighting the role of both technical indicators and macroeconomic predictors in forecasting exchange rates. Employing monthly data ranging from January 1974 to December 2014 for six widely traded currencies, we show that both types of predictors provide valuable information about future currency movements. To efficiently summarise the information content in candidate predictors, we extract the principal components of each group of predictors. Our findings suggest that combining information from both technical indicators and macroeconomic variables significantly improves and stabilises exchange rate forecasts versus using either type of information alone.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1616405414
Total Pages : 692 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs

Author : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789291319626
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs by : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico

Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Economic and Business Forecasting

Author : John E. Silvia
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118497090
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic and Business Forecasting by : John E. Silvia

Download or read book Economic and Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

International Economics

Author : Charles van Marrewijk
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199280983
Total Pages : 739 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis International Economics by : Charles van Marrewijk

Download or read book International Economics written by Charles van Marrewijk and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2007 with total page 739 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written from a European perspective, this text offers coverage of all the key elements of international economics: trade, money and finance. A firm emphasis is placed on ensuring that students understand how the theory relates to real world examples, providing undergraduate students witheverything they need to understand this course. Empirical and Political detail is given close attention. International Economics contains 32 chapters split into 2 parts with part one covering International Trade and Part two covering International Money. A comprehensive online study guide for students will support the text with further This text is supported by an Online Resource Centre that includes a comprehensive study guide to assist students in reinforcing what they have learnt and preparing for exams.

Economic Forecasting and Policy

Author : N. Carnot
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230306446
Total Pages : 516 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting and Policy by : N. Carnot

Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Author : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513526634
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti

Download or read book Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.

Exchange Rate Economics

Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134838220
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""