Flood Modeling Prediction And Mitigation

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Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation

Author : Zekâi Şen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319523562
Total Pages : 431 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation by : Zekâi Şen

Download or read book Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation written by Zekâi Şen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book draws on the author’s professional experience and expertise in humid and arid regions to familiarize readers with the basic scientific philosophy and methods regarding floods and their impacts on human life and property. The basis of each model, algorithm and calculation methodology is presented, together with logical and analytical strategies. Global warming and climate change trends are addressed, while flood risk assessments, vulnerability, preventive and mitigation procedures are explained systematically, helping readers apply them in a rational and effective manner. Lastly, real-world project applications are highlighted in each section, ensuring readers grasp not only the theoretical aspects but also their concrete implementation.

Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation

Author : Flynn Hayes
Publisher : Callisto Reference
ISBN 13 : 9781641166140
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (661 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation by : Flynn Hayes

Download or read book Flood Modeling, Prediction and Mitigation written by Flynn Hayes and published by Callisto Reference. This book was released on 2021-11-16 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A flood is an overflow of water that submerges the land which is generally dry. It can occur due to various factors such as overflow of water from water bodies, accumulation of rainwater on saturated ground in an areal flood or when the flow rate exceeds the capacity of the river channel. Flood modeling is a process where the effects of floods are simulated using mathematical formulas and equations. Flood forecasting involves the use of forecasted precipitation and streamflow data to forecast flow rates and water levels. It is an important element of flood warning. It makes use of real-time flood forecasting models for early warning and prevention from disaster. Construction of floodways, diversion canals, dams, flood plains, coastal defences and temporary perimeter barriers are a few examples of flood control methods that play a vital role in preventing the damaging effects of flood waters. The book studies, analyses and upholds the pillars of flood modeling and its utmost significance in modern times. It traces the progress of this field and highlights some of its key concepts and applications. Those in search of information to further their knowledge will be greatly assisted by this book.

Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation

Author : Zekâi Şen
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128024224
Total Pages : 485 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation by : Zekâi Şen

Download or read book Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation written by Zekâi Şen and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-08-03 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Drought Modelling, Prediction, and Mitigation provides a practical guide to new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions. The modeling procedures covered by the book include recent advancements in regional drought extent, coverage, intensity, and water deficit predictions, which are increasingly significant given current climate change impacts on water resources. Each modeling procedure is explained theoretically prior to the mathematical derivation, and includes book examples, exercises, and case studies that supplement the applied and practical material, thus making the approaches accessible and applicable to the reader. Presents new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions Includes online modeling tools to help readers quickly solve drought related problems Presents methodologies, including drought features (duration, intensity, and magnitude) at any desired risk level Include case studies from arid and semi-arid regions

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

Author : Fi-John Chang
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3038975486
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (389 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods by : Fi-John Chang

Download or read book Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.

Flood Prediction and Mitigation in Data-sparse Environments

Author : Joy Sanyal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (858 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Prediction and Mitigation in Data-sparse Environments by : Joy Sanyal

Download or read book Flood Prediction and Mitigation in Data-sparse Environments written by Joy Sanyal and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last three decades many sophisticated tools have been developed that can accurately predict the dynamics of flooding. However, due to the paucity of adequate infrastructure, this technological advancement did not benefit ungauged flood-prone regions in the developing countries in a major way. The overall research theme of this dissertation is to explore the improvement in methodology that is essential for utilising recently developed flood prediction and management tools in the developing world, where ideal model inputs and validation datasets do not exist. This research addresses important issues related to undertaking inundation modelling at different scales, particularly in data-sparse environments. The results indicate that in order to predict dynamics of high magnitude stream flow in data-sparse regions, special attention is required on the choice of the model in relation to the available data and hydraulic characteristics of the event. Adaptations are necessary to create inputs for the models that have been primarily designed for areas with better availability of data. Freely available geospatial information of moderate resolution can often meet the minimum data requirements of hydrological and hydrodynamic models if they are supplemented carefully with limited surveyed/measured information. This thesis also explores the issue of flood mitigation through rainfall-runoff modelling. The purpose of this investigation is to assess the impact of land-use changes at the sub-catchment scale on the overall downstream flood risk. A key component of this study is also quantifying predictive uncertainty in hydrodynamic models based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. Detailed uncertainty assessment of the model outputs indicates that, in spite of using sparse inputs, the model outputs perform at reasonably low levels of uncertainty both spatially and temporally. These findings have the potential to encourage the flood managers and hydrologists in the developing world to use similar data sets for flood management.

Global Flood Hazard

Author : Guy J-P. Schumann
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119217903
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Flood Hazard by : Guy J-P. Schumann

Download or read book Global Flood Hazard written by Guy J-P. Schumann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Flood Hazard Subject Category Winner, PROSE Awards 2019, Earth Science Selected from more than 500 entries, demonstrating exceptional scholarship and making a significant contribution to the field of study. Flooding is a costly natural disaster in terms of damage to land, property and infrastructure. This volume describes the latest tools and technologies for modeling, mapping, and predicting large-scale flood risk. It also presents readers with a range of remote sensing data sets successfully used for predicting and mapping floods at different scales. These resources can enable policymakers, public planners, and developers to plan for, and respond to, flooding with greater accuracy and effectiveness. Describes the latest large-scale modeling approaches, including hydrological models, 2-D flood inundation models, and global flood forecasting models Showcases new tools and technologies such as Aqueduct, a new web-based tool used for global assessment and projection of future flood risk under climate change scenarios Features case studies describing best-practice uses of modeling techniques, tools, and technologies Global Flood Hazard is an indispensable resource for researchers, consultants, practitioners, and policy makers dealing with flood risk, flood disaster response, flood management, and flood mitigation.

River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation

Author : Donald Knight
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781439824702
Total Pages : 626 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (247 download)

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Book Synopsis River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation by : Donald Knight

Download or read book River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation written by Donald Knight and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2005-11-17 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flooding accounts for one-third of natural disasters worldwide and for over half the deaths which occur as a result of natural disasters. As the frequency and volume of flooding increases, as a result of climate change, there is a new urgency amongst researchers and professionals working in flood risk management. River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation brings together thirty edited papers by leading experts who gathered for the European Union’s Advanced Study Course at the University of Birmingham, UK. The scope of the course ranged from issues concerning the protection of life, to river restoration and wetland management. A variety of topics is covered in the book including climate change, hydro-informatics, hydro-meterology, river flow forecasting systems and dam-break modelling. The approach is broad, but integrated, providing an attractive and informative package that will satisfy researchers and professionals, while offering a sound introduction to students in Engineering and Geography.

Predictive Urban Coastal Flood Modeling

Author : Timu W. Gallien
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781267826855
Total Pages : 109 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Urban Coastal Flood Modeling by : Timu W. Gallien

Download or read book Predictive Urban Coastal Flood Modeling written by Timu W. Gallien and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coastal flooding has been recognized as a significant challenge for human settlement. Global sea levels are expected to rise on the order of 1 m by 2100, exacerbating already episodic flooding in highly urbanized coastal communities. Flood mapping is the first step in risk assessment and represents a critical element of flood risk management, not only to identify vulnerable property but to evaluate the efficacy and potential consequences of proposed adaptation strategies. However, flood maps have not been rigorously validated to include information about model sensitivities and uncertainties relative to modeling methodology and infrastructure resolution. A two dimensional Godunov type hydrodynamic model that solves a local Riemann problem to accommodate weir-like overflow is successfully applied to simulate tidal flooding. The shallow water hydrodynamic model is then augmented with empirical overtopping models to investigate the effect of wave overtopping volumes. Simulation results are compared to two unique validation datasets and three critical issues in coastal flood prediction emerge; the effects of methodology (i.e. equilibrium vs. hydrodynamic), depiction of both weir-like overflow of walls and wave runup and overtopping volumes and finally, resolving flood control infrastructure and mitigation measures. Hydrodynamic modeling methodologies responsive to flood control infrastructure are found to outperform existing equilibrium flood mapping methodologies which ignore hydraulic connectivity and assume instantaneous filling of the backshore. Weir-like and wave runup and overtopping volumes are shown to significantly influence flood prediction, and paradoxically, mitigation strategies associated with weir-like flooding may exacerbate runup and overtopping floods. Finally, results show that accurate flood mapping requires inclusion of both flood control infrastructure such as drainage and flood defense walls resolved with centimetric accuracy. A real time kinematic (RTK) survey with approximately 1.5 cm vertical root mean square error (RMSE) is found to be suitable for barrier height measurement. However, errors consistent with aerial laser scanning (LiDAR) of approximately 15 cm RMSE are inadequate for urban flood mapping.

Wadi Flash Floods

Author : Tetsuya Sumi
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811629048
Total Pages : 559 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Wadi Flash Floods by : Tetsuya Sumi

Download or read book Wadi Flash Floods written by Tetsuya Sumi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book brings together research studies, developments, and application-related flash flood topics on wadi systems in arid regions. The major merit of this comprehensive book is its focus on research and technical papers as well as case study applications in different regions worldwide that cover many topics and answer several scientific questions. The book chapters comprehensively and significantly highlight different scientific research disciplines related to wadi flash floods, including climatology, hydrological models, new monitoring techniques, remote sensing techniques, field investigations, international collaboration projects, risk assessment and mitigation, sedimentation and sediment transport, and groundwater quality and quantity assessment and management. In this book, the contributing authors (engineers, researchers, and professionals) introduce their recent scientific findings to develop suitable, applicable, and innovative tools for forecasting, mitigation, and water management as well as society development under seven main research themes as follows: Part 1. Wadi Flash Flood Challenges and Strategies Part 2. Hydrometeorology and Climate Changes Part 3. Rainfall–Runoff Modeling and Approaches Part 4. Disaster Risk Reduction and Mitigation Part 5. Reservoir Sedimentation and Sediment Yield Part 6. Groundwater Management Part 7. Application and Case Studies The book includes selected high-quality papers from five series of the International Symposium on Flash Floods in Wadi Systems (ISFF) that were held in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020 in Japan, Egypt, Oman, Morocco, and Japan, respectively. These collections of chapters could provide valuable guidance and scientific content not only for academics, researchers, and students but also for decision-makers in the MENA region and worldwide.

Error Assessment of National Water Model Analysis & Assimilation and Short-range Forecasts

Author : Andrew Austin-Petersen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Error Assessment of National Water Model Analysis & Assimilation and Short-range Forecasts by : Andrew Austin-Petersen

Download or read book Error Assessment of National Water Model Analysis & Assimilation and Short-range Forecasts written by Andrew Austin-Petersen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flooding is the costliest natural disaster in the United States and tragically often leads to loss of life. Flood prediction, response and mitigation are therefore critical areas of research and have been for many decades. Hydrologic and hydraulic models are a key component of flood prediction methods and highly detailed models have been implemented in many areas of high risk which often correspond to areas with high population. However, the high cost and complexity of highly detailed models means that many areas of the US are not covered by flood prediction early warning systems. Recent increases in computational power and increased resolution and coverage of remotely sensed data have allowed for the development of a continental scale streamflow prediction system known as the National Water Model which is currently forecasting streamflow values for over 2.7 million stream reaches across the US. Flood inundation predictions can be derived from the National Water Model using digital elevation data to extract reach-scale rating curves and therefore river stage height. Using the height above nearest drainage method, flood inundation maps can be created from the stage height at relatively low computational cost at continental scale. The National Water Model is currently operating as a deterministic model for short-term predictions and does not currently include an estimate of the uncertainty in these predictions. The final streamflow values are at the end of a chain of models which originate from precipitation forecasts and go through rainfall-runoff and finally routing modules. The total uncertainty in the streamflow predictions is therefore a function of the uncertainty in each step. Uncertainty analysis commonly relies on an assessment of uncertainty in model parameters and boundary conditions, the use of perturbed inputs or through comparison of several different models of the same systems. Estimated uncertainty from the first model in a chain can then be propagated to the next model and so on until a final estimate is achieved. Unfortunately, the National Water Model is operated on a super computer and the details of the model are not available for perturbation analysis. One step in the National Water Model hourly cycle is the assimilation of USGS gage data which allows for corrections to the model state before the forecast simulation is made. This excludes USGS gage data from being used as a verification dataset. Even so, it is still an informative exercise to compare NWM predictions at these sites. There are numerous local and regional gaging stations which are not assimilated into the National Water Model and can be used as an independent check on the model output. Recent flooding in the Llano River basin in central Texas provides an opportunity to compare National Water Model predictions to both USGS and non-USGS gage readings. This thesis presents an assessment of the error in National Water Model predictions in the Llano River basin

Flood Assessment

Author : Eric W. Harmsen
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1771884584
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (718 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Assessment by : Eric W. Harmsen

Download or read book Flood Assessment written by Eric W. Harmsen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About 7,000 people lose their lives and nearly 100 million people are adversely affected by floods each year worldwide. Flooding occurs in almost every part of the world and is the result of extreme rainfall. Severe flooding also costs billions of dollars each year in damage and economic losses. This new volume focuses on two detailed studies that employ physically based hydrologic models to predict flooding in the particularly challenging environment of small watersheds with mountainous terrain and high intensity/high variability rainfall.

Floods: Forecasting and Mitigation

Author : Makayla Lynwood
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781647400248
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Floods: Forecasting and Mitigation by : Makayla Lynwood

Download or read book Floods: Forecasting and Mitigation written by Makayla Lynwood and published by . This book was released on 2020-09-15 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overflow of water which submerges land that is generally dry is known as a flood. This overflow can be from a number of water bodies such as lakes, rivers or oceans. It can also be caused from an excessive accumulation of rainwater. The impact of floods can vary, from a neighborhood or community getting affected to an entire river basin. Some of the many ways of mitigating the adverse effects of floods are forecasting, mapping and analyzing hydraulic models. Flood forecasting is a process which is involved in the prediction and estimation of the duration, magnitude and timing of flooding. Its primary aim is to prevent and reduce damage to human life, environment and property. The topics included in this book on floods and their mitigation are of utmost significance and bound to provide incredible insights to readers. Those in search of information to further their knowledge will be greatly assisted by this book. Coherent flow of topics, student-friendly language and extensive use of examples make this book an invaluable source of knowledge.

Flash Floods in Egypt

Author : Abdelazim M. Negm
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030296350
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis Flash Floods in Egypt by : Abdelazim M. Negm

Download or read book Flash Floods in Egypt written by Abdelazim M. Negm and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-11 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest findings and information on flash floods in Egypt and presents case studies from various regions throughout the country. The quantitative and qualitative dimensions of these flash floods are discussed on the basis of statistical analysis and field observations. The book covers a broad and diverse range of topics, including evaluation of drainage basins, early warning systems, flash flood investigations, hydrologic simulation, GIS and flash floods, environmental flash floods, hazard management, flash flood monitoring, assessment of flood risks, flash flood vulnerability and mitigation, management of flash floods, prediction and mitigation, and rainfall harvesting and utilization. The book offers a unique source of information on virtually all dimensions of flash floods in Egypt and their environmental impacts, and combines analysis, observations, and experts’ hands-on field experience. It also supports the assessment and management of flash floods in Egypt, a country currently facing many challenges in implementing sustainable development plans, mainly because of the severe water scarcity the arid country facing.

Global Drought and Flood

Author : Huan Wu
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119427215
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Drought and Flood by : Huan Wu

Download or read book Global Drought and Flood written by Huan Wu and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-08-10 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods Droughts and floods are causing increasing damage worldwide, often with devastating short- and long-term impacts on human society. Forecasting when they will occur, monitoring them as they develop, and learning from the past to improve disaster management is vital. Global Drought and Flood: Observation, Modeling, and Prediction presents recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods. It also describes the techniques and products currently available and how they are being used in practice. Volume highlights include: Remote sensing approaches for mapping droughts and floods Physical and statistical models for monitoring and forecasting hydrologic hazards Features of various drought and flood systems and products Use by governments, humanitarian, and development stakeholders in recent disaster cases Improving the collaboration between hazard information provision and end users The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

Floods in a Changing Climate

Author : Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139851632
Total Pages : 121 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Floods in a Changing Climate by : Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Download or read book Floods in a Changing Climate written by Giuliano Di Baldassarre and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-22 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flood inundation models enable us to make hazard predictions for floodplains, mitigating increasing flood fatalities and losses. This book provides an understanding of hydraulic modelling and floodplain dynamics, with a key focus on state-of-the-art remote sensing data, and methods to estimate and communicate uncertainty. Academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change, environmental science and natural hazards, and professionals and policy-makers working in flood risk mitigation, hydraulic engineering and remote sensing will find this an invaluable resource. This volume is the third in a collection of four books on flood disaster management theory and practice within the context of anthropogenic climate change. The others are: Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation by Ramesh Teegavarapu, Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrological Modeling by P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar and Floods in a Changing Climate: Risk Management by Slodoban Simonović.

A Safer Future

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309045460
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis A Safer Future by : National Research Council

Download or read book A Safer Future written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.

Flood Assessment

Author : Eric W. Harmsen
Publisher : Innovations in Agricultural &
ISBN 13 : 9781771884570
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (845 download)

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Book Synopsis Flood Assessment by : Eric W. Harmsen

Download or read book Flood Assessment written by Eric W. Harmsen and published by Innovations in Agricultural &. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About 7,000 people lose their lives and nearly 100 million people are adversely affected by floods each year worldwide. Severe flooding also costs billions of dollars each year in damage and economic losses. This new volume focuses on two detailed studies that employ physically based hydrologic models to predict flooding in the particularly challenging environment of small watersheds with mountainous terrain and high intensity/high variability rainfall. The first study, by Dr. Alejandra Rojas Gonzalez, discusses flood prediction limitations in small watersheds with mountainous terrain and high rainfall variability. The hypothesis of the study is that it is possible to perform a small-scale, affordable model calibration, and then scale-up the parameters to a larger basin-scale model. The study specifically addresses the following scientific questions: How is flow prediction affected by the spatial variability of point rainfall at scales below that of the typical resolution of radar-based products? How does parameter and hydrological model resolution affect the model's predictive capabilities and the errors of the hydrologic model? Would the assumptions developed for the small scale enhance the hydrologic predictability at larger scales? The second study, by Dr. Luz E. Torres Molina, describes the development of a stochastic model to forecast short-term rainfall for a tropical basin. The high-resolution rainfall data (≈ 100-m) was derived using the TropiNet radar system at the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez Campus, representing possibly the only study of its kind in a tropical environment. The predicted short-term rainfall data was input into a hydrologic model, and flood inundation levels were estimated at selected locations within the basin. Results of the rainfall and hydrologic forecasts are compared with observed data. The study also provides a prototype for a flood forecast alarm system. Book jacket.