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Faulty Predictions
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Book Synopsis Faulty Predictions by : Karin Lin-Greenberg
Download or read book Faulty Predictions written by Karin Lin-Greenberg and published by University of Georgia Press. This book was released on 2014 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Book Synopsis Climatology versus Pseudoscience by : Dana Nuccitelli
Download or read book Climatology versus Pseudoscience written by Dana Nuccitelli and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Book Synopsis When Prophecy Fails by : Leon Festinger
Download or read book When Prophecy Fails written by Leon Festinger and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-04-01 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study reported in this volume grew out of some theoretical work, one phase of which bore specifically on the behavior of individuals in social movements that made specific (and unfulfilled) prophecies. We had been forced to depend chiefly on historical records to judge the adequacy of our theoretical ideas until we by chance discovered the social movement that we report in this book. At the time we learned of it, the movement was in mid-career but the prophecy about which it was centered had not yet been disconfirmed. We were understandably eager to undertake a study that could test our theoretical ideas under natural conditions. That we were able to do this study was in great measure due to the support obtained through the Laboratory for Research in Social Relations of the University of Minnesota. This study is a project of the Laboratory and was carried out while we were all members of its staff. We should also like to acknowledge the help we received through a grant-in-aid from the Ford Foundation to one of the authors, a grant that made preliminary exploration of the field situation possible.
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Book Synopsis Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis by : Mushiri, Tawanda
Download or read book Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis written by Mushiri, Tawanda and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the fast pace of the modern world it is important, more than ever, for factories to know how and why their machines are failing and what can be done to prevent it. As such, it is imperative that new research is conducted to make sure that factories can operate as efficiently as possible. Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis is an essential reference source for the newest research on the risk assessment matrix, ladder logic, and computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS). Featuring widespread coverage across a variety of related viewpoints and topics, such as the Ishikawa diagram, machinery failure analysis and troubleshooting, model reference adaptive control systems, and proportionalintegralderivative (PID) controllers, this book is ideally designed for professionals, upper-level students, and academics seeking current research on the implementation of fuzzy logic in machine prediction failure.
Book Synopsis Naadi Predictions by : Shashikant Oak
Download or read book Naadi Predictions written by Shashikant Oak and published by Diamond Pocket Books Pvt Ltd. This book was released on 2014-02-18 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wing Commander (Retd.) Shashikant Oak of Pune has a great contribution in bringing the Naadi palm leaf based astrological system into limelight. For about past 18 years, he has been conducting an original research on the aforesaid system. His research includes various scientific angles, and has given the whole subject a new dimension. To conduct the original research, he has visited almost all the Naadi centers in India during the course of last 18 years, apart from individually meeting a thousands of persons to take on account the firsthand experiences. He has also presented a detailed paper called 'Comparative Study: Nostradamus and Naadi Granthas.' This revised and enlarged edition includes fresh astonishing experiences such as:- readings from blank paper, appearance of vibhooti upon the palm leaf, shocking episodes of Group Caption Rakesh Nanda throwing light on the ancient Maharishi's wisdom available in India. First time more than 220 addresses from all over Indian states have been presented in alphabetical order. Excerpts from the interview of Padamshree Dr. Vijay Bhaskar: “As I am a scientist; while thinking about the Naadi palm leaves, my entire focal point was the computational aspect of it. How do the Maharishis know in advance the names and other information about the native? After an in-depth study, I conclude: if the supercomputers of ten years from today compute this information, it will take 10,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,000 calculations to collect information of one native. Simply putting, it is mathematically impossible. In the terms of computer science, this is referred to as the NP complete problem.” Here is sample how the name of a person appears in the leaf:
Download or read book Not Even Wrong written by Peter Woit and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2007-03-09 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When does physics depart the realm of testable hypothesis and come to resemble theology? Peter Woit argues that string theory isn't just going in the wrong direction, it's not even science. Not Even Wrong shows that what many physicists call superstring “theory” is not a theory at all. It makes no predictions, not even wrong ones, and this very lack of falsifiability is what has allowed the subject to survive and flourish. Peter Woit explains why the mathematical conditions for progress in physics are entirely absent from superstring theory today, offering the other side of the story.
Book Synopsis Oxford Handbook of Human Action by : Ezequiel Morsella
Download or read book Oxford Handbook of Human Action written by Ezequiel Morsella and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated. The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science. The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics.
Book Synopsis What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts? by : Nico Bauer
Download or read book What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts? written by Nico Bauer and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2022-05-12 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.
Book Synopsis Machine Learning by : Ryszard S. Michalski
Download or read book Machine Learning written by Ryszard S. Michalski and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach contains tutorial overviews and research papers representative of trends in the area of machine learning as viewed from an artificial intelligence perspective. The book is organized into six parts. Part I provides an overview of machine learning and explains why machines should learn. Part II covers important issues affecting the design of learning programs—particularly programs that learn from examples. It also describes inductive learning systems. Part III deals with learning by analogy, by experimentation, and from experience. Parts IV and V discuss learning from observation and discovery, and learning from instruction, respectively. Part VI presents two studies on applied learning systems—one on the recovery of valuable information via inductive inference; the other on inducing models of simple algebraic skills from observed student performance in the context of the Leeds Modeling System (LMS). This book is intended for researchers in artificial intelligence, computer science, and cognitive psychology; students in artificial intelligence and related disciplines; and a diverse range of readers, including computer scientists, robotics experts, knowledge engineers, educators, philosophers, data analysts, psychologists, and electronic engineers.
Book Synopsis Cognitive-Behavioral Marital Therapy by : Donald H. Baucom
Download or read book Cognitive-Behavioral Marital Therapy written by Donald H. Baucom and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current volume by Baucom and Epstein demonstrates the product that can result when two individuals, both of whom are skilled therapists, creative theoreticians and experienced researchers, combine their efforts. No other two individuals have the depth of understanding and the breadth of knowledge needed to write a book of his magnitude on cognitive behavioral therapy of marital distress. As a result, the best of the scientist-practitioner is revealed in Cognitive-Behavioral Marital Therapy.
Book Synopsis Database and Expert Systems Applications by : Sven Hartmann
Download or read book Database and Expert Systems Applications written by Sven Hartmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-19 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two volume set of LNCS 11706 and LNCS 11707 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2019, held in Linz, Austria, in August 2019. The 32 full papers presented together with 34 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 157 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: Part I: Big data management and analytics; data structures and data management; management and processing of knowledge; authenticity, privacy, security and trust; consistency, integrity, quality of data; decision support systems; data mining and warehousing. Part II: Distributed, parallel, P2P, grid and cloud databases; information retrieval; Semantic Web and ontologies; information processing; temporal, spatial, and high dimensional databases; knowledge discovery; web services.
Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
Book Synopsis The Age of Spiritual Machines by : Ray Kurzweil
Download or read book The Age of Spiritual Machines written by Ray Kurzweil and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ray Kurzweil is the inventor of the most innovative and compelling technology of our era, an international authority on artificial intelligence, and one of our greatest living visionaries. Now he offers a framework for envisioning the twenty-first century--an age in which the marriage of human sensitivity and artificial intelligence fundamentally alters and improves the way we live. Kurzweil's prophetic blueprint for the future takes us through the advances that inexorably result in computers exceeding the memory capacity and computational ability of the human brain by the year 2020 (with human-level capabilities not far behind); in relationships with automated personalities who will be our teachers, companions, and lovers; and in information fed straight into our brains along direct neural pathways. Optimistic and challenging, thought-provoking and engaging, The Age of Spiritual Machines is the ultimate guide on our road into the next century.
Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Book Synopsis The Bigness of the World by : Lori Ostlund
Download or read book The Bigness of the World written by Lori Ostlund and published by University of Georgia Press. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Set among such divergent places as a small-town in Minnesota, an Albuquerque airport, A Belizean café and a hotel swimming pool in Java, Ostlund's Flannery O'Connor Award (2008) winning debut collection depicts sexually and socially repressed Americans. Men and women who wind up feeling displaced when they fail to escape the influence of their past; ineffectual parents, fathers and lovers who disappear, teachers who struggle to connect with their students, and lifelong obsessions with language.
