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Fair Weather Or Foul The Macroeconomic Effects Of El Nino
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Book Synopsis Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-30 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
Book Synopsis Fair Weather Or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño by : Paul Anthony Cashin
Download or read book Fair Weather Or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño written by Paul Anthony Cashin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions cross-sectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? by : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
Book Synopsis Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis by : Matthew E. Kahn
Download or read book Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis written by Matthew E. Kahn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
Book Synopsis Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis by : Matthew E. Kahn
Download or read book Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis written by Matthew E. Kahn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? by : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-22 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
Book Synopsis The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter? by : Mrs.Kerstin Gerling
Download or read book The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter? written by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-07 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes new empirical evidence on the dynamic adjustment path of growth and key fiscal variables after severe weather-related disasters. It does not only show that output loss can be permanent, but even twice as large for cases of severe casualties or material damages than people affected. Meanwhile, key fiscal aggregates remain surprisingly stable. Event and case studies suggest that this can reflect both a deliberate policy choice or binding constraints. The latter can make governments respond through mitigating fiscal policy efforts such as ad hoc fiscal rebalancing and reprioritization. The findings help better customize disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts to countries’ risk exposure along a particular loss dimension.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498313876 Total Pages :77 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis India by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book India written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines how surges in global financial market volatility spill over to emerging market economies (EMs) including India. The results suggest that a surge in global financial market volatility is transmitted very strongly to key macroeconomic and financial variables of EMs, and the extent of its pass-through increases with the depth of external balance-sheet linkages between advanced countries and EMs. The paper also looks at food inflation, which has often been singled out as a key driver of India’s high and persistent inflation.
Book Synopsis World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2015 by :
Download or read book World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2015 written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asia and Pacific Economic Update provides regular, biannual analyses of development trends and economic policy issues across the East Asia and Pacific region.
Book Synopsis El Niño and cereal production shortfalls by : Dorosh, Paul A.
Download or read book El Niño and cereal production shortfalls written by Dorosh, Paul A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current El Niño episode may be among the strongest on record (Earth Institute 2015). This year again, serious localized production shortfalls have occurred or are expected, creating an urgent need for policy actions to ensure adequate food supply and food mobility from surplus to deficit regions. Although global cereal production is not expected to decline significantly, complacency is not warranted: The situation calls for careful monitoring of production and prices, promotion of transparent international and domestic trade policies, and expanded coverage of safety nets and nutrition programs for the households most severely affected, all while working toward long-term improvements in resilience and agricultural production.
Book Synopsis Visualization Techniques for Climate Change with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence by : Arun Lal Srivastav
Download or read book Visualization Techniques for Climate Change with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence written by Arun Lal Srivastav and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Visualization Techniques for Climate Change with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence covers computer-aided artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies as related to the impacts of climate change and its potential to prevent/remediate the effects. As such, different types of algorithms, mathematical relations and software models may help us to understand our current reality, predict future weather events and create new products and services to minimize human impact, chances of improving and saving lives and creating a healthier world. This book covers different types of tools for the prediction of climate change and alternative systems which can reduce the levels of threats observed by climate change scientists. Moreover, the book will help to achieve at least one of 17 sustainable development goals i.e., climate action. Includes case studies on the application of AI and machine learning for monitoring climate change effects and management Features applications of software and algorithms for modeling and forecasting climate change Shows how real-time monitoring of specific factors (temperature, level of greenhouse gases, rain fall patterns, etc.) are responsible for climate change and possible mitigation efforts to achieve environmental sustainability
Book Synopsis Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties by : Ha Nguyen
Download or read book Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties written by Ha Nguyen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-30 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using quarterly temperature and employment data between 1990 and 2021, this paper uncovers nuanced evidence on the impact of seasonal temperature within US counties: higher winter temperature increases private sector employment growth while higher summer temperature decreases it. The impacts of higher temperature in mild seasons, fall and spring, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, the negative impact of higher summer temperature persists while the positive impact of higher temperature in the winter is more short-lived. The negative effects of a hotter summer are pervasive and persistent in many sectors: most significantly in “Construction” and “Leisure and Hospitality” but also in “Trade, Transport, and Utilities” and “Financial Activities.” In contrast, the positive effects of a warmer winter are less pervasive. The employment effect of a hotter summer has been more severe in recent decades.
Book Synopsis Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2024 Developing amid Disaster Risks by : OECD
Download or read book Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2024 Developing amid Disaster Risks written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2024-05-02 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as China and India. It comprises three parts: a regional economic monitor, a thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region, and a series of country notes.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :148431249X Total Pages :304 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2017 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries by : Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries written by Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes monetary policy regimes in emerging and developing economies where climate-related natural disasters are major macroeconomic shocks. A narrative analysis of IMF reports published around the occurrence of natural disasters documents their impact on important macroeconomic variables and monetary policy responses. While countries with at least some degree of monetary policy independence typically react by tightening the monetary policy stance, in a sizable number of cases monetary policy was accommodated. Given the lack of consensus on best practices in these circumstances, a small open-economy New-Keynesian model with disaster shocks is leveraged to evaluate welfare under alternative monetary policy rules. Results suggest that responding to inflation to an extent sufficient to keep inflation expectations anchored, while allowing temporary deviations from its target is the welfare maximizing policy. Alternative regimes such as strict inflation targeting, exchange rate pegs, or Taylor rules explicitly responding to economic activity or the exchange rate would be welfare-detrimental.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513503979 Total Pages :15 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-18 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the June 2015 issue, the Research Summaries review "Migration: An Attractive Insurance Option in African Countries" (Ahmat Jidoud) and "Investment in Emerging Markets" (Nicolas E. Magud and Sebastian Sosa). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on Islamic Finance” (Inutu Lukonga). The Bulletin also includes its regular listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as information on the "IMF Economic Review." A new IMF eLibrary discussion site on energy and climate change is highlighted, along with new recommendations from IMF Publications.
Book Synopsis Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti by : Mr.Alexei P Kireyev
Download or read book Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti written by Mr.Alexei P Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that Djibouti is susceptible to climate change and related costs are potentially large. Investing now in adaptation and mitigation has large benefits in terms of reducing the related costs in the future. Reforms to generate the fiscal space are therefore needed and investment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be built into the long-term fiscal projections. Finally, concerted international efforts and stepping up regional cooperation could help moderate climate-related macro-fiscal risks.
