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Author : L. H. J. Goossens
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis written by L. H. J. Goossens and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Igor Linkov
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401009872
Total Pages : 451 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Main report written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Methods for CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of Dispersion and Deposition written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : S. Lydersen
Publisher : Taylor & Francis US
ISBN 13 : 9789054109679
Total Pages : 768 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)
Download or read book Safety and Reliability written by S. Lydersen and published by Taylor & Francis US. This book was released on 1998-03 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the effect of age, environment, design and maintenance, these papers discuss how legislation and regulation in the management of systems deals with the topic of safety and reliability.
Author : Sven Ove Hansson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319305492
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)
Download or read book The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis written by Sven Ove Hansson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-26 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.
Author : Anca M. Hanea
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030464741
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author : R. M. Cooke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789282703885
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (38 download)
Download or read book Methods for CEC USNRC accident consequence uncertainty analysis of dispersion and deposition written by R. M. Cooke and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Frank Graziani
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540773622
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Computational Methods in Transport: Verification and Validation written by Frank Graziani and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-09 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this book deals with a cross cutting issue affecting all transport disciplines, whether it be photon, neutron, charged particle or neutrino transport. That is, verification and validation. In this book, we learn what the astrophysicist, atmospheric scientist, mathematician or nuclear engineer do to assess the accuracy of their code. What convergence studies, what error analysis, what problems do each field use to ascertain the accuracy of their transport simulations.
Author : Ali Mosleh
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540762621
Total Pages : 766 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (626 download)
Download or read book Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management written by Ali Mosleh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1998-08-26 with total page 766 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These volumes contain the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4), held in New York City in September 98. The conference provided a forum for the presentation of innovative methods and applications of risk-based approaches to improve the design and operation of technological systems and processes from the economic and safety points of view. Papers reflect progress made on methods and applications in such areas as modeling and analysis of complex systems, human and organizational performance assessment, software reliability, data collection and analysis, expert judgement modeling and use, identification and assessment of various types of uncertainty, risk-informed regulatory and operational decision making, and public perception of risk. A diverse range of disciplines are represented including aerospace, nuclear, fossil fuels, chemical systems, marine technology, transportation, information technology, medical systems, environment, and defense.
Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book A Literature Review on the Use of Expert opinion in Prbabilistric Risk Analysis written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ketil Stølen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540342974
Total Pages : 485 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)
Download or read book Trust Management written by Ketil Stølen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-08-29 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Trust Management, iTrust 2006. 30 revised full papers and 4 revised short papers are presented together with 1 keynote paper and 7 trust management tool and systems demonstration reports. Besides technical issues in distributed computing and open systems, topics from law, social sciences, business, and philosophy are addressed.
Author : Simon French
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139480987
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support written by Simon French and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-30 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.
Author : Harry Joe
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 981429988X
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (142 download)
Download or read book Dependence Modeling written by Harry Joe and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka
Author : Marina L. Gavrilova
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 364217499X
Total Pages : 381 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)
Download or read book Transactions on Computational Science X written by Marina L. Gavrilova and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-07 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The LNCS journal Transactions on Computational Science reflects recent developments in the field of Computational Science, conceiving the field not as a mere ancillary science but rather as an innovative approach supporting many other scientific disciplines. The journal focuses on original high-quality research in the realm of computational science in parallel and distributed environments, encompassing the facilitating theoretical foundations and the applications of large-scale computations and massive data processing. It addresses researchers and practitioners in areas ranging from aerospace to biochemistry, from electronics to geosciences, from mathematics to software architecture, presenting verifiable computational methods, findings, and solutions and enabling industrial users to apply techniques of leading-edge, large-scale, high performance computational methods. The 10th issue of the Transactions on Computational Science, edited by Edward David Moreno, is the first of two publications focusing on security in computing. The 14 papers included in the volume address a wide range of applications and designs, such as new architectures, novel hardware implementations, cryptographic algorithms, and security protocols.
Author : John G. Voeller
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471761303
Total Pages : 2950 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (717 download)
Download or read book Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set written by John G. Voeller and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 2950 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security is an essential and timely collection of resources designed to support the effective communication of homeland security research across all disciplines and institutional boundaries. Truly a unique work this 4 volume set focuses on the science behind safety, security, and recovery from both man-made and natural disasters has a broad scope and international focus. The Handbook: Educates researchers in the critical needs of the homeland security and intelligence communities and the potential contributions of their own disciplines Emphasizes the role of fundamental science in creating novel technological solutions Details the international dimensions of homeland security and counterterrorism research Provides guidance on technology diffusion from the laboratory to the field Supports cross-disciplinary dialogue in this field between operational, R&D and consumer communities
Author : Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470033304
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
