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Author : Sonan Memon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)
Download or read book Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles written by Sonan Memon and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Fabio Milani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (555 download)
Download or read book Expectation shocks and learning as drivers of the business cycle written by Fabio Milani and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : A. W. Mullineux
Publisher : Bookboon
ISBN 13 : 8776818853
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (768 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sylvain Leduc
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437933823
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book Expectations and Economic Fluctuations written by Sylvain Leduc and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity, the authors study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. They find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. Short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. ¿Provides quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.¿ Charts and tables.
Author : Solomos Solomou
Publisher : Manchester University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780719041518
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (415 download)
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Author : George W. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400824265
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Author : Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Shocks to Inflation Expectations written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-29 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle.
Author : Marcelo Silva
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Producers' Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles written by Marcelo Silva and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses producer-expectation-driven business cycle fluctuations. Based on theoretical predictions of a multi-sector model with market frictions and adjustment cost, and using a unique panel of producer-level data, it seeks to unravel the patterns of dynamic responses to producers' expectation shocks. Overall, there is microevidence of co-movements among firm's production, employment, investment intention and capacity utilization due to positive expectation shocks. Moreover, the effect seems permanent on firm's outcomes and highly persistent on investment intentions fluctuations. Findings suggest that producers' expectation shocks explain between 6 and 10% of output fluctuations in the short-run, which is a non-negligible explanation power and may offer support to the news-driven business cycle literature. Still, the theoretical model developed illustrates how adjustment costs and labor market frictions could be dragging down the measured impact.
Author : Finn E. Kydland
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 556 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (126 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Theory written by Finn E. Kydland and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1995 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a collection of key articles on modern business cycle theory. Fundamental to business cycle theory is the estimation of the role played by different impulses or shocks for aggregate fluctuations, and identifying the mechanisms by which these impulses propagate over time to create the cycles we observe. Business Cycles Theory is divided into three parts. Part I deals with issues of measurement and methodology and describes empirical business cycle regularities. Parts II and III centre around the study of real and nominal shocks and impulses.
Author : James Hartley
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134694784
Total Pages : 690 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (346 download)
Download or read book Real Business Cycles written by James Hartley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-04 with total page 690 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.
Author : Paolo Annunziato
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349231835
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (492 download)
Download or read book Is the Economic Cycle Still Alive? written by Paolo Annunziato and published by Springer. This book was released on 1994-02-12 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are now living in a period of disillusion in the ability of economic policy to stabilise the economy. This is proven by the onset of severe world recession in the early 1980s and the inability to invert the negative phase of the business cycle under way in the industrialized countries in the early 1990s. The failure of old policies motivates the research into the causes of economic fluctuations and their measurement whose results are published in this volume
Author : Daron Acemoglu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780226002095
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2010-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 address how heterogeneous beliefs interact with equilibrium leverage and potentially lead to leverage cycles, the validity of alternative hypotheses about the reason for the recent increase in foreclosures on residential mortgages, the credit rating crisis, quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, and noisy business cycles.
Author : Robert J. Gordon
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226304590
Total Pages : 882 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Author : Günter Gabisch
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642747159
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (427 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Theory written by Günter Gabisch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the 1960s regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in Western economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly be come irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anticyclic demand policies. From the 1950s until the mid-1960s business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose dependence on particular parameter values (in order to exhibit oscillatory motion) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of persistent fluctuations. The obvi ous success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into stabilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the 1960s which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.
Author : Bozzano G Luisa
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080545327
Total Pages : 746 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)
Download or read book Inflation, Employment and Business Fluctuations written by Bozzano G Luisa and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2000-11-16 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Textbook on Macroeconomic Knowledge and Analysis
