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Author : Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Policy written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513586750
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets written by Mr. Zhongxia Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
Author : Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (471 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectation Redux and Monetary Policy written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451978804
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-05-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic. When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to address the awkward reality of sticky nominal prices. In this paper we develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky prices. It offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models, or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. The model also leads to a novel perspective on the international welfare spillovers of monetary and fiscal policies.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic. When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to address the awkward reality of sticky nominal prices. In this paper we develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky prices. It offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models, or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. The model also leads to a novel perspective on the international welfare spillovers of monetary and fiscal policies.
Author : Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Poilicy written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Peter Isard
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451922043
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.
Author : Christian PIERDZIOCH
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book EXCHANGE RAGE EXPECTATIONS REDUX AND MONETARY POLICY written by Christian PIERDZIOCH and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Enrique Alberola Ila
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Optimal Exchange Rate Targets and Macroeconomic Stabilization written by Enrique Alberola Ila and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Anna Nordstrom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589067967
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)
Download or read book The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies written by Anna Nordstrom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-24 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145197020X
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate written by Ronald MacDonald and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.
Author : Yin-Wong Cheung
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (981 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Prediction Redux written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance at horizons of up to 5 years. In this paper, we further expand the set of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity factors. The performance of these models is compared against the random walk benchmark. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the "consistency" test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). No model consistently outperforms a random walk, by a mean squared error measure, although purchasing power parity does fairly well. Moreover, along a direction-of-change dimension, certain structural models do outperform a random walk with statistical significance. While one finds that these forecasts are cointegrated with the actual values of exchange rates, in most cases, the elasticity of the forecasts with respect to the actual values is different from unity. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period will not necessarily work well in another period.
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134838220
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (348 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Author : John Fender
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 515 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (219 download)
Download or read book Monetary and exchange rate policies in an open macroeconomic model with unemployment and rational expectations written by John Fender and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
