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Evaluating Gdp Forecasting Models For Korea
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Book Synopsis Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea by : Mr.Li Zeng
Download or read book Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea written by Mr.Li Zeng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1463902913 Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (639 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, June 2011 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, June 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-07 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 2011: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the global trade collapse of 2008-09 (by Rudolfs Bems); the research summaries are "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets" (by Ricardo Llaudes, Ferhan Salman, and Mali Chivakul) and "The Missing Link between Dutch Disease, Appreciation, and Growth (by Nicolás E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa). The issue also lists the contents of the June 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Brain Korea 21 Phase II by : Somi Seong
Download or read book Brain Korea 21 Phase II written by Somi Seong and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-01-31 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Brain Korea 21 Program (BK21), which seeks to make Korean research universities globally competitive and to produce more high-quality researchers in Korea, provides funding to graduate students and professors who belong to research groups at top universities. The authors develop quantitative and qualitative models to evaluate how well BK21 is fulfilling its goals and make suggestions for further stimulating Korean university research.
Download or read book Energy Research Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Semiannual, with semiannual and annual indexes. References to all scientific and technical literature coming from DOE, its laboratories, energy centers, and contractors. Includes all works deriving from DOE, other related government-sponsored information, and foreign nonnuclear information. Arranged under 39 categories, e.g., Biomedical sciences, basic studies; Biomedical sciences, applied studies; Health and safety; and Fusion energy. Entry gives bibliographical information and abstract. Corporate, author, subject, report number indexes.
Book Synopsis The Making of National Economic Forecasts by : Lawrence Robert Klein
Download or read book The Making of National Economic Forecasts written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Book Synopsis Korea as a Knowledge Economy by : Chung-hae S?
Download or read book Korea as a Knowledge Economy written by Chung-hae S? and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea's development process offers valuable lessons for other developing and less developed economies. In particular, the way Korea uses outside technologies, by accumulating indigenous capabilities, is still valid in the era of the knowledge economy. This volume examines the Korean model and Korea's march toward a knowledge economy from a poverty-ridden economy before the launch of full-scale industrialization in the early 1960s. It also emphasizes Korea's achievements, as well as remaining tasks within the four pillars of the knowledge economy, with a common theme throughout -- how Korea has narrowed the gaps in its knowledge and institutions in global competition with world leaders.
Book Synopsis Long-Run Growth Forecasting by : Stefan Bergheim
Download or read book Long-Run Growth Forecasting written by Stefan Bergheim and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-29 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.
Book Synopsis New Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence by : Hiroshi G. Okuno
Download or read book New Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence written by Hiroshi G. Okuno and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-07-18 with total page 1213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Industrial and Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems, IEA/AIE 2007, held in Kyoto, Japan. Coverage includes text processing, fuzzy system applications, real-world interaction, data mining, machine learning chance discovery and social networks, e-commerce, heuristic search application systems, and other applications.
Book Synopsis Data Science for Economics and Finance by : Sergio Consoli
Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
Book Synopsis Republic of Korea, Selected Issues by :
Download or read book Republic of Korea, Selected Issues written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Database Systems for Advanced Applications by : Jian Pei
Download or read book Database Systems for Advanced Applications written by Jian Pei and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-16 with total page 952 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set LNCS 10827 and LNCS 10828 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Database Systems for Advanced Applications, DASFAA 2018, held in Gold Coast, QLD, Australia, in May 2018. The 83 full papers, 21 short papers, 6 industry papers, and 8 demo papers were carefully selected from a total of 360 submissions. The papers are organized around the following topics: network embedding; recommendation; graph and network processing; social network analytics; sequence and temporal data processing; trajectory and streaming data; RDF and knowledge graphs; text and data mining; medical data mining; security and privacy; search and information retrieval; query processing and optimizations; data quality and crowdsourcing; learning models; multimedia data processing; and distributed computing.
Book Synopsis Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility by : Ms.Enrica Detragiache
Download or read book Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility written by Ms.Enrica Detragiache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how a multivariate logit empirical model of banking crisis probabilities can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of the decision maker regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs.
Book Synopsis Tourism Management Dynamics by : Dimitrios Buhalis
Download or read book Tourism Management Dynamics written by Dimitrios Buhalis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2006-08-11 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the global tourism industry continues to expand and to become more complex, it is vital that those in the industry identify trends early and design proactive strategies to gain competitive advantage. Tourism Futures: dynamics, challenges and tools provides the readers with a comprehensive insight of the changes in the external business environment, and equips them with new managerial techniques and tools in order to adapt and profit from these changes and into the future. Written by a team of globally renowned thinkers and researchers, it provides the manager of tomorrow with the ability to look beyond normal planning horizons and identify potential opportunities from change. Tourism Futures: dynamics, challenges and tools is part of a two part set with its companion text, Tourism Futures: the emerging business which takes the reader on a logical progression to look at new products, new consumers and new industry. Both texts thereby provide the reader with a complete set of tools and knowledge to enable them to recognise the key areas of growth and change, and the ability to use the new tools and technologies available to develop them and maximise business potential.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements by : Michael G. Plummer
Download or read book Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements written by Michael G. Plummer and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
