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Evaluating Forecasts From Factor Models For Canadian Gdp Growth And Core Inflation
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Book Synopsis An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts by : Allan Timmermann
Download or read book An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts written by Allan Timmermann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
Book Synopsis Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis by :
Download or read book Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book OECD Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists by : Maximo Camacho
Download or read book Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Book Synopsis Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors by : Christian Schumacher
Download or read book Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors written by Christian Schumacher and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting withinternational data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard principal components as well as variable preselection prior to factor estimation using targeted predictors following Bai and Ng [Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors, Journal of Econometrics 146 (2008), 304-317]. The results are as follows: Forecasting without data preselection favours the use of German data only, and no additional information content can be extracted from international data. However, when using targeted predictors for variable selection, international data generally improves the forecastability of German GDP.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Book Synopsis Bank of Canada Review by : Bank of Canada
Download or read book Bank of Canada Review written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modern Econometric Analysis by : Olaf Hübler
Download or read book Modern Econometric Analysis written by Olaf Hübler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-29 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book leading German econometricians in different fields present survey articles of the most important new methods in econometrics. The book gives an overview of the field and it shows progress made in recent years and remaining problems.
Book Synopsis Quarterly Projection Model for India by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Book Synopsis Understanding Economic Forecasts by : David F. Hendry
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited by : Helge Berger
Download or read book The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2016 by : World Bank Group
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2016 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-07-13 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.
