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Estimating Trade Flows
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Book Synopsis Estimating Trade Flows by : Elhanan Helpman
Download or read book Estimating Trade Flows written by Elhanan Helpman and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary across destination countries. As a result, the impact of trade frictions on trade flows can be decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins, where the former refers to the trade volume per exporter and the latter refers to the number of exporters. This model yields a generalized gravity equation that accounts for the self-selection of firms into export markets and their impact on trade volumes. We then develop a two-stage estimation procedure that uses a selection equation into trade partners in the first stage and a trade flow equation in the second. We implement this procedure parametrically, semi-parametrically, and non-parametrically, showing that in all three cases the estimated effects of trade frictions are similar. Importantly, our method provides estimates of the intensive and extensive margins of trade. We show that traditional estimates are biased, and that most of the bias is not due to selection but rather due to the omission of the extensive margin. Moreover, the effect of the number of exporting firms varies across country pairs according to their characteristics. This variation is large, and particularly so for trade between developed and less developed countries and between pairs of less developed countries.
Book Synopsis Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data by : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Download or read book Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-05-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behavior across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analyzed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behavior of third country exchange rates. There is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.
Book Synopsis Estimating Trade and Investment Flows by : Alessandro Barattieri
Download or read book Estimating Trade and Investment Flows written by Alessandro Barattieri and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I present a new stylized fact from a large sample of countries for the period 2000-2006: bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are almost never observed in the absence of bilateral trade flows. I document a similar pattern using bilateral foreign affiliate sales (FAS), aggregating them up from a large firm level dataset (ORBIS), which includes over 45,000 firms. I propose a model where heterogeneous firms can decide whether to serve foreign markets through export or FDI. I derive theory-based gravity-type equations for the aggregate bilateral trade and foreign affiliate sales (FAS) flows. I then suggest a two-stage estimation procedure structurally derived from the model. In the first stage, an ordered Probit model is used to retrieve consistent estimates of the terms needed to correct the flows equations for firms' heterogeneity and selection into exports and FDI. In the second stage, a maximum likelihood estimator is applied to the corrected trade and FAS equations. The main results of the analysis are as follows: 1) The impact of distance, border and regional trade agreements on the amount bilateral foreign affiliate sales becomes substantially smaller after controlling for selection and firms' heterogeneity (hence separating the impact on the extensive versus the intensive margin). 2) The same “attenuation” result is found also for the trade equations, consistently with previous literature. 3) When FAS are observed, failing to take this into account when correcting for heterogeneity and selection in the trade equations does not leads to significant differences in the estimated coefficients.
Book Synopsis The Intensive Margin in Trade by : Ana Fernandes
Download or read book The Intensive Margin in Trade written by Ana Fernandes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Melitz model highlights the importance of the extensive margin (the number of firms exporting) for trade flows. Using the World Bank’s Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) featuring firm-level exports from 50 countries, we find that around 50 percent of variation in exports is along the extensive margin—a quantitative victory for the Melitz framework. The remaining 50 percent on the intensive margin (exports per exporting firm) contradicts a special case of Melitz with Pareto-distributed firm productivity, which has become a tractable benchmark. This benchmark model predicts that, conditional on the fixed costs of exporting, all variation in exports across trading partners should occur on the extensive margin. We find that moving from a Pareto to a lognormal distribution allows the Melitz model to match the role of the intensive margin in the EDD. We use likelihood methods and the EDD to estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint lognormal distribution for firm-level productivity, fixed costs and demand shifters, and use “exact hat algebra” to quantify the effects of a decline in trade costs on trade flows and welfare in the estimated model. The welfare effects turn out to be quite close to those in the standard Melitz-Pareto model when we choose the Pareto shape parameter to fit the average trade elasticity implied by our estimated Melitz-lognormal model, although there are significant differences regarding the effects on trade flows.
Download or read book Gravity Chains written by Richard Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of the value added flows. This fact has important implications for the estimation of the gravity equation. We present empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation model performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. It also provides a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explaining trade where international supply chains are important. Future drafts shall explore ways the model can be implemented empirically.
Book Synopsis The Gravity Model in International Trade by : Peter A. G. van Bergeijk
Download or read book The Gravity Model in International Trade written by Peter A. G. van Bergeijk and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-06-10 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do borders affect trade? Are cultural and institutional differences important for trade? Is environmental policy relevant to trade? How does one's income or wage relate to the fact that trade partners are nearby or far away? These are just some of the important questions that can be answered using the gravity model of international trade. This model predicts and explains bilateral trade flows in terms of the economic size and distance between trading partners (e.g. states, regions, countries, trading blocs). In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in this model and it is now one of the most widely applied tools in applied international economics. This book traces the history of the gravity model and takes stock of recent methodological and theoretical advances, including new approximations for multilateral trade resistance, insightful analyses of the measurement of economic distance and analyses of foreign direct investment.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis by : Marc Bacchetta
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis written by Marc Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Book Synopsis A Method of Estimating Interregional Trade Flows by : Frank J. B. Stilwell
Download or read book A Method of Estimating Interregional Trade Flows written by Frank J. B. Stilwell and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Gravity with Zeros by : Oleksandr Shepotylo
Download or read book Gravity with Zeros written by Oleksandr Shepotylo and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arguably, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries are not as integrated into the world markets as the EU countries or South-East Asian countries. Trade flows of the CIS countries are not well diversified both in terms of trading partners as well as in terms of composition of exports. In order to compare the degree of export diversification of the CIS countries relative to other countries, I employ the gravity model that proved to be very successful in explaining geographical patterns of trade across countries. The gravity equation is estimated quot;out-of-sample,quot; meaning that I do not include data on trade flows of the CIS countries in the sample while calculating parameters of the gravity equation. Egger (2002) argued forcefully that quot;in-samplequot; estimation of the trade potential based on deviation of residuals from the linear prediction is incorrect because large deviations of residuals in the gravity equation based on the quot;in-samplequot; method is not the evidence of large deviation of trade from its potential but rather the indicator of the model misspecification. In addition, I explicitly deal with the problem of zero trade flows which becomes more severe at higher levels of disaggregation such as at the level of sectors of economy and account for heterogeneity of firms at the industry level.
Book Synopsis Evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach by : Souleymane Coulibaly
Download or read book Evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach written by Souleymane Coulibaly and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.
Book Synopsis Methods for estimating intra-state commodity trade flows by : John Alston Burghardt
Download or read book Methods for estimating intra-state commodity trade flows written by John Alston Burghardt and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Choosing the best model in the presence of zero trade by : Tran
Download or read book Choosing the best model in the presence of zero trade written by Tran and published by WorldFish. This book was released on with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity by : Mr.Alberto Behar
Download or read book Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-20 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting firms takes a gravity form, such that the extensive margin is also affected by multilateral resistance. We develop Taylor approximated multilateral resistance terms with which to capture the comparative static effects of changes in trade costs. For isolated bilateral changes in trade frictions, multilateral resistance effects are small for most countries. However, if all countries reduce their trade frictions, the impact of multilateral resistance is so strong that bilateral trade falls in most cases, despite the larger trade elasticities implied by firm heterogeneity. As a consequence, the world-wide trade response, though positive, is much lower.
Book Synopsis The Estimation of Regional Gross Trade Flows by : H. Craig Davis
Download or read book The Estimation of Regional Gross Trade Flows written by H. Craig Davis and published by . This book was released on 1984* with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bilateral Trade Flows by : Wolfgang Keller
Download or read book Bilateral Trade Flows written by Wolfgang Keller and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Re-sampling techniques and theoretically-motivated extraneous information are used to revisit Hummels and Levinsohn's (1995) analysis of the testable implication of the monopolistic competition trade theory for bilateral trade volumes. Confronting this implication with data from over nine-thousand samples, we find a robust relationship between the estimated parameter and the summary statistics of the samples. Using this information, which is extraneous to the estimating equation, we rank the samples according to the likely share of monopolistic competition-inspired trade in total trade volumes. We then conduct a consistency check: to examine whether this testable implication is less refuted in samples where the production structures are more conducive to generating large shares of monopolistic competition-inspired trade. The monopolistic competition trade theory passes this consistency check. Next, we recognize that other trade theories can generate the same estimating equation. We argue that the assumptions, unrelated to these models' production structure, are unlikely to account for the differences in the estimated parameter across the samples. Our estimation results imply that the testable implication performed worse in samples where factor-endowment based trade is more likely to predominate. These findings indicate that the empirical performance of the trade volume predictions of the Helpman- Krugman monopolistic competition trade theory is much better than suggested by previous research.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows are Frequent and Economically Determined by : Will Martin
Download or read book Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows are Frequent and Economically Determined written by Will Martin and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: \This paper evaluates the performance of alternative estimators of the gravity equation when zero trade flows result from economically-based data-generating processes with heteroscedastic residuals and potentially-omitted variables. In a standard Monte Carlo analysis, the paper finds that this combination can create seriously biased estimates in gravity models with frequencies of zero frequently observed in real-world data, and that Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood models can be important in solving this problem. Standard threshold-Tobit estimators perform well in a Tobit-based data-generating process only if the analysis deals with the heteroscedasticity problem. When the data are generated by a Heckman sample selection model, the Zero-Inflated Poisson model appears to have the lowest bias. When the data are generated by a Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein-type model with heterogeneous firms, a Zero-Inflated Poisson estimator including firm numbers appears to provide the best results. Testing on real-world data for total trade throws up additional puzzles with truncated Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimators being very similar, and Zero-Inflated Poisson and truncated Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood identical. Repeating the Monte Carlo analysis taking into account the high frequency of very small predicted trade flows in real-world data reconciles these findings and leads to specific recommendations for estimators.
Book Synopsis The Intensive Margin in Trade by : Ana Margarida Fernandes
Download or read book The Intensive Margin in Trade written by Ana Margarida Fernandes and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Melitz model highlights the importance of the extensive margin (the number of firms exporting) for trade flows. Using the World Bank's Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) featuring firm-level exports from 50 countries, we find that around 50% of variation in exports is along the extensive margin -- a quantitative victory for the Melitz framework. The remaining 50% on the intensive margin (exports per exporting firm) contradicts a special case of Melitz with Pareto-distributed firm productivity, which has become a tractable benchmark. This benchmark model predicts that, conditional on the fixed costs of exporting, all variation in exports across trading partners should occur on the extensive margin. We find that moving from a Pareto to a lognormal distribution allows the Melitz model to match the role of the intensive margin in the EDD. We use likelihood methods and the EDD to estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint lognormal distribution for firm-level productivity, fixed costs and demand shifters, and use "exact hat algebra" to quantify the effects of a decline in trade costs on trade flows and welfare in the estimated model. The welfare effects turn out to be quite close to those in the standard Melitz-Pareto model when we choose the Pareto shape parameter to fit the average trade elasticity implied by our estimated Melitz-lognormal model, although there are significant differences regarding the effects on trade flows.
