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Estimating The Equity Premium
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Book Synopsis Estimating the Equity Premium by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Estimating the Equity Premium written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. Under plausible conditions, valuation ratios such as the dividend-price ratio should not have trends or explosive behavior. This fact can be used to strengthen the evidence for predictability in stock returns. Steady-state valuation models are also useful predictors of stock returns given the high degree of persistence in valuation ratios and the difficulty of estimating free parameters in regression models for stock returns. A steady-state approach suggests that the world geometric average equity premium was almost 4% at the end of March 2007, implying a world arithmetic average equity premium somewhat above 5%. Both valuation ratios and the cross-section of stock prices imply that the equity premium fell considerably in the late 20th Century, but has risen modestly in the early years of the 21st Century.
Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium: A Contextual Literature Review by : Laurence B. Siegel
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium: A Contextual Literature Review written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research into the equity risk premium, often considered the most important number in finance, falls into three broad groupings. First, researchers have measured the margin by which equity total returns have exceeded fixed-income or cash returns over long historical periods and have projected this measure of the equity risk premium into the future. Second, the dividend discount model—or a variant of it, such as an earnings discount model—is used to estimate the future return on an equity index, and the fixed-income or cash yield is then subtracted to arrive at an equity risk premium expectation or forecast. Third, academics have used macroeconomic techniques to estimate what premium investors might rationally require for taking the risk of equities. Current thinking emphasizes the second, or dividend discount, approach and projects an equity risk premium centered on 3½% to 4%.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Equity Risk Premium by : David Biery
Download or read book Estimating the Equity Risk Premium written by David Biery and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating the Equity Premium by : Glen Donaldson
Download or read book Estimating the Equity Premium written by Glen Donaldson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing empirical research investigating the size of the equity premium has largely consisted of a series of innovations around a common theme: producing a better estimate of the equity premium by using better data or a better estimation technique. The equity premium estimate that emerges from most of this work matches one moment of the data alone: the mean difference between an estimate of the return to holding equity and a risk free rate. We instead match multiple moments of US market data, exploiting the joint distribution of the dividend yield, return volatility and realized excess returns, and find that the equity premium lies within 50 basis points of 3.5%, a range much narrower than achieved in previous studies. Additionally, statistical tests based on the joint distribution of these moments reveal that only those models of the conditional equity premium that embed time variation, breaks, and/or trends are supported by the data. In order to develop the joint distribution of the dividend yield, return volatility and excess returns, we need a model of price and return fundamentals. We document that even recently developed analytically tractable models which permit autocorrelated dividend growth rates and discount rates impose restrictions that are rejected by the data. We therefore turn to a wider range of models, requiring numerical solution methods and parameter estimation by Simulated Method of Moments.
Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium by : Bradford Cornell
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-05-26 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)
Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium by : William N. Goetzmann
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
Book Synopsis A History of the Equity Risk Premium and Its Estimation by : Basil Copeland
Download or read book A History of the Equity Risk Premium and Its Estimation written by Basil Copeland and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The estimation of the equity (or "market") risk premium has become a cottage industry, both for academics and professionals. It is recognized as a key economic or financial parameter for a variety of interests and applications, yet opinions as to its magnitude either historical or projected vary widely. But not as widely as was once the case. There has been general acceptance, a consensus if you will, that historical equity return premia overstate what was anticipated or expected and that a large component of the historical equity return premium constitutes unanticipated capital gains. This paper explores the history of this idea and examines the role this it plays (or not) in a variety of recent and current methods of estimating the equity risk premium. Using a methodology similar to Fama and French (2002) but presaged in Copeland (1982) I describe the behavior of ex post and ex ante risk premia for the period 1872 to 2013 and estimate the equity risk premium going forward for the next 10 years (2014-2023). I also discuss various issues in the estimation of the equity risk premium, such as geometric versus arithmetic mean, top down versus bottom up forecasts of the equity risk premium, and whether to use dividend yields or P/E multiples in accounting for unanticipated capital gains. I conclude that the arithmetic equity risk premium as usually calculated is significantly overstated and that the current and expected future ERP is in the range of 3-4 percent for both geometric and arithmetic means, though likely in the upper half of this range.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Equity Risk Premium with Time-Series Forecasts of Earnings by : Kristian D. Allee
Download or read book Estimating the Equity Risk Premium with Time-Series Forecasts of Earnings written by Kristian D. Allee and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The size of the equity risk premium remains an unanswered question in the accounting and finance literature. This study proposes a new approach to reverse-engineer the equity risk premium, distinct from prior research, in that it does not rely on analysts' forecasts to proxy for the market's earnings expectations. That I instead use time-series earnings forecasts allows an investigation of the equity risk premium across a broader cross-section of firms, including smaller firms that are not covered by analysts. This study finds that risk premia are significantly higher for firms not followed by analysts. This suggests that studies requiring analysts' earnings forecasts to estimate the equity risk premium have likely underestimated its overall level. Additional validity tests on my firm- and year-specific risk premium estimates reveal that these estimates consistently and predictably relate to multiple measures of risk, particularly for firms not followed by analysts.
Book Synopsis Estimating the cost of equity by : The Open University
Download or read book Estimating the cost of equity written by The Open University and published by The Open University. This book was released on with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 9-hour free course looked at how to estimate the cost of equity using the dividend valuation model and the capital asset pricing model.
Book Synopsis Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System by : Richard M. Levich
Download or read book Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System written by Richard M. Levich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System brings together the research of economists at New York University and the University of Maryland, along with those from the private sector, government bodies, and other universities. The first section of the volume focuses on the historical origins of the credit rating business and its present day industrial organization structure. The second section presents several empirical studies crafted largely around individual firm-level or bank-level data. These studies examine (a) the relationship between ratings and the default and recovery experience of corporate borrowers, (b) the comparability of credit ratings made by domestic and foreign rating agencies, and (c) the usefulness of financial market indicators for rating banks, among other topics. In the third section, the record of sovereign credit ratings in predicting financial crises and the reaction of financial markets to changes in credit ratings is examined. The final section of the volume emphasizes policy issues now facing regulators and credit rating agencies.
Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium by : William N. Goetzmann
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to create a strong understanding of the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the research and anaylsis of two scholars who are experts in this field, this volume presents the key issues that are paramount to investors, including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Implied Cost of Capital by : Ruihao Ke
Download or read book Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Implied Cost of Capital written by Ruihao Ke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on the implied cost of capital (ICC) has found that the equity risk premium is approximately 3%, on average, much lower than estimates based on the mean of historical stock market returns. The validity of such ICC estimates, however, faces both theoretical and empirical challenges. The theoretical equivalence between ICC and expected return requires the stringent condition that the latter is a constant, which is inconsistent with theory and empirical evidence. The empirical estimation of ICC depends on short-run and long-run earnings forecasts, whose biases can severely limit the validity of the estimates. By employing a forecasting procedure that induces little bias in both short-run and long-run forecasts and taking into account the stochastic nature of expected returns, we show that the average market risk premium ranges between 3% and 6%. We also demonstrate that the results of prior research are affected by input errors that are partially self-canceling.
Book Synopsis Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) written by Aswath Damodaran and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Equity Risk Premium. An Estimate Inspired on Behavioural Finance by : José Costa
Download or read book Equity Risk Premium. An Estimate Inspired on Behavioural Finance written by José Costa and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Capital Asset Pricing Model is very convenient for estimating the Cost of Capital for long-term investments, it requires the determination and use of a value for the equity risk premium (ERP). Using Prospect Theory introduced by Kahneman and Tversky and assuming a Brownian motion for any volatile asset, it seems possible to estimate such a premium from two market parameters - volatility and risk-free rate - and from the estimates of two human characteristics - the multiple of the valuation of the pain produced by losses in comparison to the satisfaction extracted from the alternative gains, plus the non-linearity of the risk-aversion/risk-loving curve. Under common values for these parameters, the ERP should be 7% p.a. Therefore, it seems that Mehra and Prescott estimated an insufficient premium, because they considered only that non-linearity, and not the gains-losses asymmetry.
Book Synopsis Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) written by Aswath Damodaran and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The equity risk premium is the price of risk in equity markets and is a key input in estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. Given its importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating the equity risk premium, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds, over a long period, comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums - the survey approach, where investors and managers are asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. In the next section, we look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generated expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right” number to use in analysis.
Book Synopsis Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Equity Risk Premiums (ERP) written by Aswath Damodaran and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The equity risk premium is the price of risk in equity markets and is a key input in estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. Given its importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating the equity risk premium, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds, over a long period, comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums - the survey approach, where investors and managers are asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. In the next section, we look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generated expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right” number to use in analysis.
Book Synopsis Estimating Equity Risk Premium by : Jie Zhu
Download or read book Estimating Equity Risk Premium written by Jie Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The expected equity risk premium is a key input of many asset prcing models in finance. There exist a number of methods to estimate the risk premium. It is also well documented that the risk premium is time-varying. This paper briefly reviews two different approaches. More specifically, the historical average and relative estimation are taken into closer examination. The first approach is applied to estimate equity risk premium for stock markets in Great China when the stock markets were recovering from the bottom. Then the relative estimation approach is also adopted to empirical data to justify the findings in the first one, which takes into consideration the lower required rate of return for Chinese investors due to lack of investment opportunities. After making these adjustments, we find that risk premium in mainland China is close to risk premium for Hong Kong and Taiwan markets. All of those markets have higher risk premium compared to US market. The risk premium for Shanghai and Shenzhen market are about 8% and 10% respectively. For Hong Kong and Taiwan these numbers become 8% and 9%, where the long-term forward-looking risk premium for US market is about 4%.
