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Estimating Prediction Skill Of El Nino Southern Oscillation Enso And Its Teleconnection On Precipitation Anomalies
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Book Synopsis Estimating Prediction Skill of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Its Teleconnection on Precipitation Anomalies by : Xinjia Hu
Download or read book Estimating Prediction Skill of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Its Teleconnection on Precipitation Anomalies written by Xinjia Hu and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Book Synopsis El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate by : Michael J. McPhaden
Download or read book El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Book Synopsis El Niño and the Southern Oscillation by : Henry F. Diaz
Download or read book El Niño and the Southern Oscillation written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-11-09 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a recurrent feature of the climate in tropical regions. In this volume leading experts summarize information gained over the past decade concerning diverse aspects of ENSO, which have led to marked improvements in our ability to forecast its development months or seasons in advance. This volume compares ENSO's modern morphology and variability with its recent historic and prehistoric behaviour. It expands and updates Diaz and Markgraf's earlier volume El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992, Cambridge University Press). The volume will be of importance to a broad range of scientists in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, geosciences, ecology, public health, emergency management response and mitigation, and decision-making. It will also be used as a supplementary textbook and reference source in graduate courses in environmental studies.
Book Synopsis Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation by : National Research Council
Download or read book Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-01-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) Program was designed to study short-term climate variations. A 10-year international program, TOGA made El Nino a household word. This book chronicles the cooperative efforts of oceanographers and meteorologists, several U.S. government agencies, many other nations, and international scientific organizations to study El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes the progression from being unable to detect the development of large climate variations to being able to make and use rudimentary climate predictions, especially for some tropical countries. It examines the development of the TOGA Program, evaluates its accomplishments, describes U.S. participation in the program, and makes general recommendations for developing better understanding and predictions of climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales.
Book Synopsis Climate Extremes by : S.-Y. Simon Wang
Download or read book Climate Extremes written by S.-Y. Simon Wang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-06-15 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
Book Synopsis The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere by : Tapio Schneider
Download or read book The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere written by Tapio Schneider and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite major advances in the observation and numerical simulation of the atmosphere, basic features of the Earth's climate remain poorly understood. Integrating the available data and computational resources to improve our understanding of the global circulation of the atmosphere remains a challenge. Theory must play a critical role in meeting this challenge. This book provides an authoritative summary of the state of the art on this front. Bringing together sixteen of the field's leading experts to address those aspects of the global circulation of the atmosphere most relevant to climate, the book brings the reader up to date on the key frontiers in general circulation theory-including the nonlinear and turbulent global-scale dynamics that determine fundamental aspects of the Earth's climate. While emphasizing theory, as expressed through relatively simple mathematical models, it also draws connections to simulations with comprehensive general circulation models. Topics include the dynamics of storm tracks, interactions between wave dynamics and the hydrological cycle, monsoons, tropical and extratropical dynamics and interactions, and the processes controlling atmospheric humidity. An essential resource for graduate students in atmospheric, ocean, and climate sciences and for researchers seeking an overview of the field, The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere sets the standard for future research in a science that stands at a critical juncture. With a foreword by Edward Lorenz, the book includes chapters by Christopher Bretherton; Kerry Emanuel; Isaac Held; David Neelin; Raymond Pierrehumbert, Hélène Brogniez, and Rémy Roca; Alan Plumb; Walter Robinson; Tapio Schneider; Richard Seager and David Battisti; Adam Sobel; Kyle Swanson; and Pablo Zurita-Gotor and Richard Lindzen.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by : Alberto Troccoli
Download or read book Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Book Synopsis Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting by : National Research Council
Download or read book Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Academies' Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability hosted a workshop "Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting" in 2004 to discover and distill general lessons about the design of effective systems for linking knowledge with action from the last decade's experience with the production and application of seasonal to interannual climate forecasts. Workshop participants described lessons they had learned based on their experiences developing, applying, and using decision support systems in the United States, Columbia, Brazil, and Australia. Some of the key lessons discussed, as characterized by David Cash and James Buizer, were that effective knowledge-action systems: define and frame the problem to be addressed via collaboration between knowledge users and knowledge producers; tend to be end-to-end systems that link user needs to basic scientific findings and observations; are often anchored in "boundary organizations" that act as intermediaries between nodes in the system - most notably between scientists and decision makers; feature flexible processes and institutions to be responsive to what is learned; use funding strategies tailored to the dual public/private character of such systems; and require people who can work across disciplines, issue areas, and the knowledgeâ€"action interface.
Book Synopsis Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific by : Peter W. Glynn
Download or read book Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific written by Peter W. Glynn and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book documents and examines the state of health of coral reefs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. It touches on the occurrence of coral reefs in the waters of surrounding countries, and it explores their biogeography, biodiversity and condition relative to the El Niño southern oscillation and human impacts. Additionally contained within is a field that presents information on many of the species presented in the preceding chapters.
Book Synopsis The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography by : Rebecca Lave
Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography written by Rebecca Lave and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is recognition of the need to better integrate physical and human geography. It combines a collection of work and research within the new field of Critical Physical Geography, which gives critical attention to relations of social power with deep knowledge of a particular field of biophysical science. Critical Physical Geography research accords careful attention to biophysical landscapes and the power relations that have increasingly come to shape them, and to the politics of environmental science and the role of biophysical inquiry in promoting social and environmental justice. The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography lays out the scope and guiding principles of Critical Physical Geography research. It presents a carefully selected set of empirical work, demonstrating the range and intellectual strength of existing integrative work in geography research. This handbook is the first of its kind to cover this emerging discipline and will be of significant interest to students and academics across the fields of geography, the environment and sustainability.
Book Synopsis Climate and Social Stress by : National Research Council
Download or read book Climate and Social Stress written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Book Synopsis A New Approach to El Niño Southern Oscillation Origin and Forecasting by : Desislava Bozhidarova Petrova
Download or read book A New Approach to El Niño Southern Oscillation Origin and Forecasting written by Desislava Bozhidarova Petrova and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "El Niño Southern Oscillation arises in the tropical Pacific due to coupled atmosphere-ocean interactions. The nature of the dynamical system of the atmosphere is chaotic and its predictability is sensitive to initial conditions, which constraints our ability to foresee the evolution of ENSO for very long time in advance. This dissertation is dedicated to extending the state-of-the-art prediction of the phenomenon. It focuses on the identification of precursory signals in the ocean and atmosphere that improve the understanding and long-lead forecasts of ENSO. A new statistical modelling technique based on dynamic components and state-space methods is developed. Very early premonitory signals that are a result of an in-depth analysis of the processes accompanying the origin and evolution of El Niño, especially in the subsurface ocean, which is less impacted by initial conditions, are established. These tracers are defined in the far western and central tropical Pacific and are shown to anticipate El Niño two and a half years before its peak. Initial intensification of the easterly winds at this time is associated with convergence of mass, downwelling and warming of the subsurface ocean layers in the far west. Thus the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are strengthened, which leads to the propagation of warm subsurface anomalies eastward. These anomalous patterns later lead to changes in the circulation and warming of the surface of the ocean in the central tropical Pacific, which leads to the suppression of the easterly winds. The area of tropical convection shifts to the east, which weakens the Walker circulation and triggers the Bjerknes feedback. This allows the further propagation of the subsurface warm anomalies, which reach the eastern Pacific and are upwelled to the surface, which marks the onset of an El Niño . Warm anomalies in the subsurface equatorial ocean have been previously used as precursors in statistical ENSO models via the integration of the upper ocean heat content or the incorporation of anomalies of the 20°C isotherm. In this way the propagation feature of the anomalies is not considered, and no direct connection is made between the first anomalous patterns and the occurrence of a warm event. Hence, the predictive potential of the incipient warming in the western Pacific is not harnessed. Thus, the work presented in the dissertation provides implications for the possibility to improve the long-lead capabilities of other models. The definition of ENSO predictors at specific depths and regions in the ocean and atmosphere requires the reliable surface and subsurface measurements of various climate variables. Regular measurements have only begun with the satellite era in the 1980s, and with the placement of an observation system after the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Program (1985-1994). Forecasts with the model developed here substantially improve after 1994, and the change is distinct for the long-lead forecasts that rely on good-quality subsurface information about the ocean thermal structure. Therefore, the higher temporal and spatial resolution data sets of key variables are now long enough for statistical forecasting models to make better use of. The practical utility of multi-year forecasts is also explored. A well established link exists between ENSO and local climate in the coastal areas of Ecuador. Following El Niño is a warmer surface temperature and enhanced precipitation. These two variables control the dynamics of mosquito population, and in this way affect the incidence of dengue. An experiment is performed where long-lead forecasts of El Niño are used within a dengue model and the prospects for developing an early warning system is investigated." -- TDX.
Book Synopsis The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future by : Henry F. Diaz
Download or read book The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-11-05 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book examines potentially important factors that may have affected the Hadley and Walker Circulations and evaluates changes in the Hadley Circulation and the monsoons as simulated by coupled models of past climate conditions, and predicted future conditions under an enhanced greenhouse effect. This book is meant to serve as a fundamental reference work for current and future researchers, graduate students in the atmospheric sciences and geosciences, and climate specialists involved in interdisciplinary research.
