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Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap In Slovakia
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Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia by : Tetsuya Konuki
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia written by Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential ouput and the output gap for Slovakia which enjoyed rapid growth with few signs of economic overheating in recent years. It applies two broad sets of approaches: conventional methods, represented by a statistical method and a production function approach; and a multivariate (MV) Kalman filter method. The MV Kalman filter method produces estimates of excess demand that portray much more sensibily the situation in recent years in Slovakia than the conventional methods, because it can use more information to condition the paths of potentional output.
Book Synopsis A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries by : Jiri Podpiera
Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-14 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Book Synopsis Estimating Poland's Potential Output by : Mr.Natan P. Epstein
Download or read book Estimating Poland's Potential Output written by Mr.Natan P. Epstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
Book Synopsis Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap by : Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Book Synopsis Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps by : Cécile Denis
Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.
Book Synopsis Slovak Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix by : Nada Choueiri
Download or read book Slovak Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix written by Nada Choueiri and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-03-02 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate path for the koruna. It takes stock of Slovakia's growth performance over the past decade and assesses its growth potential over the medium term. It estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation in Slovakia using cross-section and time-series methods. The paper also presents production function estimates of potential output for Slovakia that imply sustainable rates of growth of 4.5-5.0 percent over the next five years.
Book Synopsis Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic by : Mr.Christian A Johnson
Download or read book Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic written by Mr.Christian A Johnson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Book Synopsis Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.
Book Synopsis Competitiveness and Economic Development in Europe by : Sławomir I. Bukowski
Download or read book Competitiveness and Economic Development in Europe written by Sławomir I. Bukowski and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-04-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The success of an economy to adapt quickly, flexibly, and effectively to the demands of the changing international economic environment can only be investigated using the achievements of other national economies or regions as a benchmark. This book analyzes the fundamental factors of competitiveness, which will, in turn, facilitate economic development and growth, in the new post-crisis environment. In the economic, social, legal, and technological environment that has emerged in recent years, as well as in the period after the recent financial crisis, it is critical to define, assess, and implement new pathways to competitiveness and economic development. The book covers all aspects of competitiveness and economic growth, from financial intermediaries to tourism and the digital economy, and from regulation and corporate governance to exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy issues. It uses empirical findings from a variety of different countries with divergent economic structures and policies. It examines the new system of production, and the technological, commercial, financial and institutional environment, with the aim of recommending a proportional division of benefits and costs of economic growth. It offers a fresh, holistic, and flexible concept to underscore the new relationship between competitiveness and economic growth. Such an approach is needed, whereby competitiveness is no longer a zero-sum game between countries, but is achievable for all countries. The book recommends future directions and offers policy solutions, and as such, will appeal to students, researchers, and policymakers, as well as those interested in the role of competitiveness in the operation of markets, productivity, and economic development, and how it might foster innovation and growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498335985 Total Pages :48 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-18 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues note estimates Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using the production function approach, univariate statistical filters, and multivariate models based on the Kalman filter method. In the production function approach, potential output is modeled as a function of potential labor and capital inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP). Results are robust to different methodologies and suggest that its potential output growth is about 3.5 percent and the output gap is on average closed. Structural breaks in potential output were identified in 1994, 2003, and 2008, which coincide to the Mexican tequila crisis, the free trade agreement with the US, and the financial crisis. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital, labor, and TFP growth in order to accelerate potential growth. Univariate statistical methods provide a simple measure of potential output. The production function approach also indicates that the absence of productivity growth is a significant barrier to potential output growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498371019 Total Pages :76 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Cyprus by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-22 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper on Cyprus models the evolution of the saving rate to help shed some light on its determinants, which could help inform medium-term projections. This paper suggests that household net wealth and unemployment are key determinants of the saving rate in Cyprus. Cypriot households dissaved in the period preceding the global crisis, as their wealth increased, and credit could be used to finance consumption. The data uncertainty, due to various data sources used and relatively short time-period may affect the regression results. Moreover, in the estimation, the endogeneity between household wealth and the saving rate, as well as between unemployment and the saving rate may have not been fully controlled through lags. Due to the lack of micro-level data, the analysis does not explore the distributional consideration with respect to wealth. Since wealth is likely distributed unevenly, high indebted households with limited wealth are likely to reduce their saving rate more than the average to support consumption in the face of economic stress. The forward-looking projections are also subject to considerable uncertainty and should be interpreted with care.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :149835338X Total Pages :22 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis El Salvador by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book El Salvador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper assesses the potential output in El Salvador. Based on various filters and the production function approach, El Salvador’s potential growth is estimated at about 2 percent for 1999–2015, and the output gap is now virtually closed. Potential growth after the global financial crisis has fallen as a result of lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth depends on technological progress, as well as the institutional, regulatory, and legal environment in which businesses operate. From a cyclical perspective, the economy is assessed to be operating at potential and labor market conditions also appear to be broadly neutral. Strengthening capital and TFP growth going forward is critical to achieve the authorities’ goal of raising potential growth to 3 percent over the medium term. Structural reforms should prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock, enhancing research and development/technological diffusion and competition in product and labor markets, strengthening institutions to secure property rights and reduce red tape, improving infrastructure, facilitating access to financing, and fostering human capital to boost TFP growth. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital and TFP to raise potential growth.
Book Synopsis The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis by : Miroslav Beblavý
Download or read book The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis written by Miroslav Beblavý and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-06 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2007–10 has presented a number of key policy challenges for those concerned with the long-term stability of the euro area. It has shown that price stability as provided by the European Central Bank is not enough to guarantee financial stability, and exposed fault lines in governance and deficiencies in the architecture of the financial supervisory and regulatory framework. This book addresses these and other issues, including why the crisis affected some countries more than others, whether the euro is still attractive for new EU states, and what policy changes and structural reforms, both macro and micro, should be undertaken to ensure its future viability. Written by a team of leading academic and central bank economists, the book also includes chapters on the cross-country incidence of the crisis, the Irish crisis and ECB monetary policy during the crisis, and studies on Spain, the Baltics, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Book Synopsis Slovak Republic, Staff Report for the ... Article IV Consultation by :
Download or read book Slovak Republic, Staff Report for the ... Article IV Consultation written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1451835361 Total Pages :120 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (518 download)
Book Synopsis Slovak Republic by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Slovak Republic written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-06-03 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews economic developments in Slovakia during 1995–96. Slovakia registered an impressive macroeconomic performance in 1995, among the best within the transition economies. Growth accelerated to 7.5 percent in 1995 from an already high rate of 5 percent in 1994, and inflation fell to 7 percent from about 12 percent in 1994. In addition, the current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus of about 2 percent of GDP. In 1996, output continued to grow at about 7 percent while inflation declined to 5.4 percent.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :9781557758392 Total Pages :268 pages Book Rating :4.7/5 (583 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 1999 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 1999 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises, business cycles and exchange rates, supply-side issues in the contractions experienced in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and challenges to European labor markets posed by European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Slovak Republic 2004 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Slovak Republic 2004 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2004-04-07 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2004 edition of OECD's periodic review of the Slovak economy includes special features on rationalising public spending, and structural reforms for enterprise and job creation.
