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Estimating Polands Potential Output
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Book Synopsis Estimating Poland's Potential Output by : Mr.Natan P. Epstein
Download or read book Estimating Poland's Potential Output written by Mr.Natan P. Epstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output in Chile by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output in Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Book Synopsis A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries by : Jiri Podpiera
Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Book Synopsis Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic by : Mr.Christian A Johnson
Download or read book Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic written by Mr.Christian A Johnson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Book Synopsis Republic of Poland by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-14 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Republic of Poland’s 2010 Article IV Consultation shows that Poland is the only European Union country to have escaped a recession in 2009 owing to its limited reliance on exports and well-capitalized and profitable banking system. Like its regional peers, it experienced spillovers from the crisis through both real and financial channels, in particular the latter, as an abrupt slowdown in capital inflows caused a credit crunch and a sharp decline in investment. The banking sector is well buffered, but risks related to foreign-exchange lending should be curbed.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484310306 Total Pages :88 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Poland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-17 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s near-term growth momentum remains strong, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and sizeable European Union transfers. The economy is operating above potential, with the unemployment rate at a historical low. Growth is projected to accelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017 and remain strong in 2018. Long-term growth, however, will be more subdued, unless adverse demographics and structural constraints on investment and productivity growth are addressed. Risks to the near-term outlook are broadly balanced. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with policy rate kept at a historically low level since early 2015.
Book Synopsis What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2004 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2004 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2004-07-06 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, OECD proposes a comprehensive programme of reform covering an unsustainably large fiscal deficit, widespread unemployment, weak investment performance, and slow rural restructuring. This edition’s special feature covers the labour market.
Book Synopsis Contributions to Modern Econometrics by : Ingo Klein
Download or read book Contributions to Modern Econometrics written by Ingo Klein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of econometrics has gone through remarkable changes during the last thirty-five years. Widening its earlier focus on testing macroeconomic theories, it has become a rather comprehensive discipline concemed with the development of statistical methods and their application to the whole spectrum of economic data. This development becomes apparent when looking at the biography of an econometrician whose illustrious research and teaching career started about thirty-five years ago and who will retire very soon after his 65th birthday. This is Gerd Hansen, professor of econometrics at the Christian Albrechts University at Kiel and to whom this volume with contributions from colleagues and students has been dedicated. He has shaped the econometric landscape in and beyond Germany throughout these thirty-five years. At the end of the 1960s he developed one of the first econometric models for the German econ omy which adhered c10sely to the traditions put forth by the Cowles commission.
Book Synopsis Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data by : Gilles Dufrénot
Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2012 Volume 2012 Issue 7 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2012 Volume 2012 Issue 7 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2012-03-28 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: OECD's 2012 Economic Survey of Poland examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects. It also includes special chapters covering climate change and health care.
Book Synopsis The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-29 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.
Author :Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475502869 Total Pages :18 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Modeling with Limited Data by : Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Download or read book Modeling with Limited Data written by Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.
Book Synopsis Nicaragua by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Nicaragua written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-05 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper is an elaborated report on Nicaragua’s potential economic growth. The challenges and idiosyncratic shocks were immense but the policies of better education, labor contracts, and accomplishments in public investments paved the way for movement of the economy. The external competitiveness and exchange rate assessment also have an important hand. The achievements in the electricity sector and the improvement in reforming the pension system are the prominent aspects. On the whole, the Board considers this growth as a positive trial of development in the global panorama.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2002 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2002 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2002-07-04 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2002 edition of OECD's periodic review of Poland's economy examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects and includes special features on public expenditure management and structural reform.
Book Synopsis The Great Recession and Developing Countries by : Mustapha K. Nabli
Download or read book The Great Recession and Developing Countries written by Mustapha K. Nabli and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-12-03 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.
