Author : Yevgeniy Kirpichevsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (477 download)
Book Synopsis Essays on Secrecy in International Relations by : Yevgeniy Kirpichevsky
Download or read book Essays on Secrecy in International Relations written by Yevgeniy Kirpichevsky and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In "When Omission is Admission: Concealing Military Capabilities" and "Hide Your Strength and Bide Your Time: Secrecy and the Security Dilemma," I use formal bargaining models to examine incentives to reveal or conceal military capacity. Military capabilities are potentially observable, which means that concealing them often requires overtly denying observers access to information. Thus, observers can often infer unfavorable information from secrecy, which leads to an equilibrium, in which all types disclose information, no matter how unfavorable it is. In the models, uncertainty can only be generated when those who are stronger than others believe choose to conceal capabilities, thereby foregoing any bargaining advantages that can accrue due to transparency. In the first of the two essays, I discuss two factors that can cause both secrecy and war: incentives to conceal "sensitive" information and domestic political costs of transparency. In the last essay, I argue that secrecy can also be instrumental in avoiding conflict: e.g. I show that concealing large power shifts can alleviate the security dilemma that they otherwise induce. To illustrate my findings, I use examples from European history in the 19 th and 20 th centuries.