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Essays On Futures Contracts As A Feeder Cattle Price Risk Management Tool
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Book Synopsis Essays on Futures Contracts as a Feeder Cattle Price Risk Management Tool by : Justin Dean Bina
Download or read book Essays on Futures Contracts as a Feeder Cattle Price Risk Management Tool written by Justin Dean Bina and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of two articles analyzing the feeder cattle futures contract as a price risk management tool. The first article implements transaction-level data and feeder cattle futures interaction terms in a hedonic pricing model framework to estimate optimal feeder cattle hedge ratios conditioned on the price of corn. This deviates from previous feeder cattle hedging literature, which typically employs aggregate weekly data and simple linear regressions of cash price against futures price to estimate hedge ratios. Hedging risk using corn-conditioned hedge ratios is compared to estimated hedge ratios that are not dependent on corn price. The second article again implements transaction-level data and a hedonic pricing model framework to evaluate whether feeder cattle basis risk has changed over time and to identify factors driving basis risk. The method developed in the second article differs from previous livestock basis risk assessments in that out-of-sample transaction price prediction errors are used to represent unexplained cash price deviations from feeder cattle futures price, or basis risk. Results from both articles indicate varying market conditions and animal characteristics have important impacts on the effectiveness of feeder cattle futures for price risk management in a heterogeneous market.
Book Synopsis Profit Margin Hedging by : Anthony Lee Stampe
Download or read book Profit Margin Hedging written by Anthony Lee Stampe and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Beef Cattle Economics by : Melissa Gale Short McKendree
Download or read book Essays on Beef Cattle Economics written by Melissa Gale Short McKendree and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. beef industry is comprised of multiple, vertically connected segments. Beginning at the cow-calf level, cattle move through the industry to backgrounding/stocker operations, feedlots, and then to beef packers. The beef produced then continues to move through the marketing channel from beef packers to wholesalers and on to multiple final consumer outlets. Each level of the beef industry has both distinct and related economic issues. This dissertation contains three essays on beef cattle economics. Essay 1 focuses on price and animal health risk management at the feedlot level. Essays 2 and 3 explore how upstream demand changes impact primary beef suppliers. The objective of Essay 1 is to determine if feedlot operators manage price risk and animal health risk as two separate and independent risks or if they manage them jointly. The animal health attribute of interest is purchasing feeder steers from a single known source versus an auction with unknown background. The output price risk mitigation tools are futures contracts, forward contracts, other, and accept cash price at time of sale. Primary data is collected using an online survey administered to feedlot operators. Participants are placed in forward looking, decision making scenarios utilizing a split-sample block design. Evidence of a relationship between animal health risk and output price risk management is mixed. Ricardian rent theory (RRT) is tested in Essay 2 to determine if complete pass-through occurs from fed cattle and corn prices to feeder cattle prices. Monthly price data from December 1995 to December 2016 is used. Based on RRT, surplus rents should pass through the market to the holder of the scarcest resource. In cattle markets, feeder calves are the scarcest, widely traded resource and thus gains and losses at the feedlot theoretically pass-through to feeder cattle prices. The hypothesized pass-through rates suggested by RRT is calculated using monthly production data from the Focus on Feedlots data series. The regression pass-through estimates are tested against the hypothesized RRT pass-through. In many models, the estimated pass-through rate is statistically greater than the RRT hypothesized pass-through rate. Thus, when fed cattle or corn prices change, these changes are more than fully passed to cow-calf producers through the feeder cattle price. Evidence is found of asymmetric pass-through during times of herd expansion versus contraction. Essay 3 provides a quantification of how changes in retail and export beef demand are transmitted to different members of the beef industry. Understanding how information is transmitted from primary consumer demand through the supply chain is key for long-term prosperity of the U.S. cattle industry. However, empirical applications quantifying how demand signals are transmitted through vertically connected industries are limited. Using both naïve and forward looking price expectations, a four equation system of inverse demand and supply equations for live and feeder cattle is estimated. Using retail and export beef demand indices, the impacts of 1% change in retail or export demand on live cattle and feeder cattle prices are quantified.
Book Synopsis Using Futures and Options as Price Risk Management Tools in the Pacific Northwest Feeder Cattle Industry by : Raymond J. Folwell
Download or read book Using Futures and Options as Price Risk Management Tools in the Pacific Northwest Feeder Cattle Industry written by Raymond J. Folwell and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Impact of Cash Settlement and Market Fundamentals on Feeder Cattle Basis by : Tanner M. Aherin
Download or read book Impact of Cash Settlement and Market Fundamentals on Feeder Cattle Basis written by Tanner M. Aherin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With volatile cattle markets, comes substantial amounts of price risk for all parties involved in the industry. Hedging with futures markets to mitigate risk is a common practice performed by commercial producers. For this to be an effective risk management tool, the futures contract must function correctly by accurately representing the price and quality of the underlying product. Often times, commodity futures contracts are settled by physical delivery. However, two livestock contracts transitioned to a cash settled index, feeder cattle in 1986 and lean hogs in 1997, to enhance the performance of the contract and promote participation by commercial users. Eliminating high delivery costs, reducing any issues with the grading process when the product is delivered, and portraying a truer commercial value, are some of the benefits of a cash settlement index. There has been some speculation that dates back to the 1980's regarding whether the live cattle futures contract should switch to cash settlement rather than physical delivery. This study was done to measure the impact the change to cash settlement had on the hedging ability of the feeder cattle futures contract. Even though the feeder cattle contract represents a different sector of the industry, the results still provide some insight as to whether cash settlement can be advantageous for a futures contract. The ability to forecast basis is critical when hedging with futures to manage risk. The magnitude of basis prediction error (BPE), or the difference between expected basis and actual basis, is a common method used to measure the hedging ability of a futures contract. This procedure was utilized to analyze the effects the change to cash settlement had on BPE in six different regions: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North/South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas. Expected basis was calculated using a two, three, and four year historical average technique for each respective week to contract expiration. Other market factors were also included in the models to ensure the cash settlement adjustment was not the sole reason for BPE variations over time. To estimate the impact the different elements have on basis predictability, Ordinary Least Squares regression was used for each of the three stacked models. For the two-year historical basis prediction error model, Kansas was the only area with a statistically significant value indicating cash settlement reduced BPE by $0.18. Three states, Kansas (-$0.24/cwt.), Missouri (-$0.17/cwt.), and Texas (-$0.16/cwt.), showed a statistically significant decrease in BPE due to cash settlement for the three-year historical basis prediction error model. Also, the coefficient for Oklahoma was just slightly above the statistically significant level. However, the four-year model had moderately different results. The estimate for Kansas was statistically significant at -$0.18/cwt. meaning cash settlement reduced BPE, while the Dakotas region actually showed a statistically significant increase in BPE by $0.18/cwt. This research provides evidence that cash settlement can improve the basis predictability of a futures contract depending on the region and technique used to calculate expected basis.
Book Synopsis Essays on Risk Management for Agricultural Commodity Futures Market by : Ying Wang
Download or read book Essays on Risk Management for Agricultural Commodity Futures Market written by Ying Wang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Funding risk, which caused the $1.3 billion derivatives-related loss at MG Refining & Marketing, Inc. in 1993, has long been overlooked in the risk management literature. The key to understanding funding risk is that, as futures hedging practice requires substantial infusions of cash to meet variation margin calls, the maximum margin required may occur well before the expiration of the futures contract, but must be met in order to maintain the futures positions. This paper approaches the question of how to properly measure the "funding risk" of commodity futures positions by estimating a CD-Vine copula model for the dependence of corn, soybean and wheat futures at multiple forecast intervals, using Harrison’s method and the Extreme Value Theory to calibrate the distribution of the maximum. This is the first attempt in the literature to model the extreme prices of futures contracts over a given time period in an agricultural commodity portfolio context. The adoption of the recently-developed CD-Vine copula model allows one to model the dependence structure in a more flexible manner than the previous standard multivariate models based on Gaussian or Student’s t distributions.
Book Synopsis Beef Cattle Futures by : Robert F. Bucher
Download or read book Beef Cattle Futures written by Robert F. Bucher and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stocker Cattle Futures Contract : a New Risk Management Tool by : Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Download or read book Stocker Cattle Futures Contract : a New Risk Management Tool written by Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Cattle Price Risk Management Strategies-using Computer Simulation to Educate Iowa Producers of Available Tools by :
Download or read book Cattle Price Risk Management Strategies-using Computer Simulation to Educate Iowa Producers of Available Tools written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk is an inevitable part of production agriculture. Price risk is especially a concern for cattle producers in the Midwest. Producers can curtail profit volatility, to an extent, through the utilization of price risk management strategies such as forward contracting, hedging, using put and call options, Livestock Risk Protection Insurance (LRP), as well as Livestock Gross Insurance (LGM) for feedlot cattle. Learning about such price risk management tools can be a daunting task. Kansas State University Extension created a computer based simulation workshop to assist them in teaching cattle producers about price risk management strategies. The simulation paralleled a lecture where participants learned of the price risk management strategies that are available. The simulation allowed the workshop participants to practice using the management strategies as they assumed the role of a feedlot or ranch manager in charge of marketing the operation's calves. In a cooperative effort with Iowa State University, Kansas State University presented the Cattle Risk Management Workshops across the state of Iowa. Participants were given pre-and posttests to measure the effectiveness of the workshop. The overall post-test scores were 25 percentage points higher than the pre-test scores. This research also discusses the interest and perceptions of cattle producers regarding price risk management strategies. The effectiveness of simulations as a teaching tool in helping producers learn about price risk management strategies is also reviewed. In addition, the various price risk management strategies available to producers, as well as seasonality of prices and basis are analyzed. This research also explains and estimates the LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model was developed with the objective of assisting producers in forecasting LRP basis. The model was developed using similar methodology applied in the creation of a CME basis forecasting model developed by Kansas State University Extension and Custom Ag Solutions, Inc. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model automatically adjusts for the LRP price adjustment factor applied to beef steer calves weighing less than 600 pounds, and beef heifers weighing 600-900 pounds. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model explains 71.37 percent of the variation of LRP basis.
Book Synopsis State Space Time Series Models of Serially Correlated Variances and Their Application to Agricultural Risk Management by : Zhiqiang Leng
Download or read book State Space Time Series Models of Serially Correlated Variances and Their Application to Agricultural Risk Management written by Zhiqiang Leng and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Agricultural Economics Research by :
Download or read book Agricultural Economics Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis American Doctoral Dissertations by :
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Agricultural Finance Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Comprehensive Dissertation Index by :
Download or read book Comprehensive Dissertation Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 978 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management by : Škrinjari?, Tihana
Download or read book Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management written by Škrinjari?, Tihana and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-09-25 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today’s financial market, portfolio and risk management are facing an array of challenges. This is due to increasing levels of knowledge and data that are being made available that have caused a multitude of different investment models to be explored and implemented. Professionals and researchers in this field are in need of up-to-date research that analyzes these contemporary models of practice and keeps pace with the advancements being made within financial risk modelling and portfolio control. Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the use of modern data analysis as well as quantitative methods for developing successful portfolio and risk management techniques. While highlighting topics such as credit scoring, investment strategies, and budgeting, this publication explores diverse models for achieving investment goals as well as improving upon traditional financial modelling methods. This book is ideally designed for researchers, financial analysts, executives, practitioners, policymakers, academicians, and students seeking current research on contemporary risk management strategies in the financial sector.
Book Synopsis Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders by : Larry Williams
Download or read book Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders written by Larry Williams and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-19 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The way that Big Money got to be Big Money was by also being the 'Smart Money', and so it is worth paying attention to how the Big Money traders behave. That's the essence of what Larry Williams has to teach us in this book. And it's not just what the Smart Money says or thinks, but how they behave in terms of their trading that we should pay attention to. Larry shows us how to listen to that message." —Tom McClellan, Editor of The McClellan Market Report "Finally, an insider's take on what really goes on behind the scenes in commodity trading. Larry writes his view of trading, as only he knows it, from his twenty-five years of experience." —James Altucher, author of Trade Like a Hedge Fund Successful trader Larry Williams reveals industry secrets that help investors and traders successfully invest and trade side-by-side with the largest commercial interests in the world. You'll be introduced to the COT (Commitment of Traders) report, the best resource for achieving trading success, learn exactly what the information it contains means, and plan for maximizing profits by acting on reported actions.
