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Essays On Economic And Policy Time Variations In Small Open Economies
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Book Synopsis Essays on Economic and Policy Time Variations in Small Open Economies by : Jamie Lee Cross
Download or read book Essays on Economic and Policy Time Variations in Small Open Economies written by Jamie Lee Cross and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of four research papers. The first three papers explore the prevalence and significance of time variation within the Australian economy. The final paper is distinct in that it analyzes the effects of economic and policy uncertainty on the Canadian economy. In the first paper (Chapter 2), I address recent concerns that Australian monetary policy is currently less effective than in the past. To investigate this hypothesis, I estimate a time varying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The main result is that monetary policy effectiveness has increased over the sample period, with little evidence to support the claim of a weaker transmission mechanism since the 2007/08 global financial crisis. In the second paper (Chapter 3 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first paper by investigating the forecasting properties of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed classes of time varying autoregressive models when predicting Australian macroeconomic variables. The main result is that time varying parameters, stochastic volatility and the Student's-t error distribution are all important modeling features of the data. More specifically, a VAR model with the proposed features provides the best inflation and interest rate forecasts over the entire sample. Surprisingly, a simple rolling window autoregressive model provides the best real GDP growth forecasts. In the third paper (Chapter 4 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first two papers, by quantifying the impacts of international shocks in driving Australian business cycle fluctuations. Our methodology builds on classes of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed, time varying panel VAR models, by proposing a fat-tailed common stochastic volatility factor. We find an important asymmetry in the effects of international shocks, with around 47 percent of negative and 68 percent of positive fluctuations resulting from foreign disturbances. More generally, international shocks have contributed to around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. The fourth paper (Chapter 5 - joint with Aubrey Poon, Joshua Chan and Timothy Kam), deviates from the first three papers in that it uses Canadian data. Our objective is to quantify the impacts of uncertainty shocks to the business cycle fluctuations of a small open economy. Using a Bayesian-estimated structural model, we quantify which time-varying risk - in domestic demand or supply conditions, in domestic monetary or fiscal policy, or, in international economic and policy spillovers factors - matter for a small open economy like Canada. Our results suggest that the historical movements in Canadian real GDP are due largely to domestic fiscal- and monetary-policy shocks, and, due to non-negligible time variations in the riskiness of these policy shocks.
Book Synopsis Essays on Small Open Economies by : Jiansheng Zhong
Download or read book Essays on Small Open Economies written by Jiansheng Zhong and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation research puts a focus on small open economies, whose policies do not affect world prices and interest rates. In the first chapter, it is shown that recent Canadian data from 2001 to 2013 feature a notable procyclical trade balance, which contrasts with the countercyclical trade balance in 1981-2000. By using a dynamic small open economy model built based upon Mendoza's (1991) framework, driven by correlated domestic productivity shocks and world credit spread shocks, I can generate the observed trade balance pattern in the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods. In addition, my analysis shows that the world credit spread shocks explain a large portion of the considerable change in the cyclicality of trade balance, and that the low world real risk-free interest rate after 2000 partially accounts for the procyclical trade balance in the same time period. Applications of the model to other developed small open economies, such as Australia and New Zealand, yield similar results, suggesting that the world credit spread shocks have an impact on macroeconomic dynamics and help improve model performance. The second chapter concerns an innovative exchange rate policy implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). From 2013 to mid-2015, in order to achieve balanced economic growth, the RBA tried to bring down the Australian dollar by presenting public speeches and monetary policy statements that expressed a strong preference for a lower exchange rate, which is known as jawboning down the currency. To investigate the effectiveness of the central bank's jawboning strategy, I analyze the Australian economy with a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, in which the Exchange Rate Stance Index (ERSI) is constructed to measure the magnitude of jawboning. The empirical results show that an unanticipated increase in the ERSI, which is equivalent to strengthened jawboning by the RBA, will lead to a significant and lasting fall in the real exchange rate. However, the ERSI shock fails to improve GDP over the medium term, suggesting that the jawboning strategy is not an effective exchange rate policy tool to boost GDP growth. The third chapter investigates how the global and local financial shocks would contribute to the large fluctuations of the unemployment rates in the emerging markets. We use a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze monthly data from six emerging countries between 1999 and 2015. The results show that the local financial risk factors, including the country spread and the dividend yield, account for a larger portion of unemployment movements than the global financial risks, including the U.S. risk-free real interest rate and the global financial risk proxied by the U.S. Baa corporate spread.
Book Synopsis Essays on Indeterminacy and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy by : Jongkyou Jeon
Download or read book Essays on Indeterminacy and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy written by Jongkyou Jeon and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Monetary Policy in Open Economies by : Luca Martino Francesco Colantoni
Download or read book Essays on Monetary Policy in Open Economies written by Luca Martino Francesco Colantoni and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy by : Franz Gehrels
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy written by Franz Gehrels and published by Springer. This book was released on 1991 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.
Book Synopsis Essays on Examining Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries by : Kulakarn Tantitemit
Download or read book Essays on Examining Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries written by Kulakarn Tantitemit and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays, which provides insights into monetary policy of emerging countries in various aspects. The first essay thoroughly investigates how the central banks in two emerging countries; Korea and Thailand, respond to economic fluctuations and observe whether their monetary policies have comparable effects on the economies. Carefully taken into account of time-series properties and the regression stability, many econometric tests are applied and the fully modified OLS with the block bootstrap is performed on their monetary policy rules to get unbiased estimation. The evidence indicates the differences of monetary policy between pre- and post-crisis and suggests that although both countries have similar economic conditions and announce the same monetary policy, the degree on stabilizing the economy in each country using the interest rate instrument is noticeably different. The second essay examines if New Keynesian type model, which is recently popular in explaining many developed economies, can as well explain an emerging economy such as Thailand in this case. The evidence suggests that simulating a New Keynesian small open economy model can capture some characteristics of Thai monetary data where their volatilities are close to volatilities of actual data, but only when the central bank is assumed to follows the Taylor rule that incorporates interest rate smoothing policy. However, comparing with the structural VAR model, the simulated model may not generate the correct size of impulse responses for Thai economy. Even so, impulse responses from both models support the implementation of explicit inflation targeting in Thailand. The last essay examines if emerging countries that implement inflation targeting are constrained by fiscal policy since these countries adopt inflation targeting recently without verifying the independence of their central banks. We observe that the interest rate setting process in inflation targeting emerging countries are not influenced by fiscal policy, and also find that the interest rate setting process of these countries are clearly different from the process of emerging countries that do not adopt inflation targeting, while it is similar to the process of industrial countries that also adopt inflation targeting.
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth by : Dmitry Brizhatyuk
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth written by Dmitry Brizhatyuk and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the nexus between asset and credit market cycles, short-run fluctuations, and growth. What factors contribute to slow and incomplete recoveries from major crises? Why are some economies more prone to such dynamics than others and what lessons does it offer for policymakers? These are among the questions that I explore in my research. In the first chapter, I document that persistent fluctuations in trend growth -- medium frequency cycles -- tend to be more volatile and negatively skewed in emerging as opposed to developed small open economies. I argue that this evidence can be understood as stemming from the non-linear interaction between credit cycles, occasionally binding collateral constraints, and innovation-driven endogenous growth. Negative shocks are highly detrimental to productivity growth in vulnerable economies that are prone to sudden stops, but this is not the case in economies with deep financial markets where agents are more often able to optimally borrow to offset temporary negative income shocks. The second chapter studies the long-term effects of housing market boom-and-bust cycles. I first examine the relationship between the dynamics of the housing market, household debt, and economic activity in a historical panel of 50 countries. I show that housing market crashes robustly predict slower future output growth, most of which is explained by slower total factor productivity growth. Notably, the magnitude of this relation is increasing in the measure of preexisting household debt. To interpret these stylized facts, I construct a two-agent (borrower-saver) dynamic general equilibrium model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint tied to housing equity. Productivity grows endogenously in the model through forward-looking innovation investment. When the preexisting level of debt is sufficiently high, negative housing demand shocks cause the collateral constraint to bind and trigger deleveraging. The endogenous slowdown in TFP growth emerges as one of the adjustment margins during this process, prolonging the real effects of a crisis. The initial shock is amplified by a negative feedback loop between deleveraging, borrowers' housing wealth, and growth. I use the calibrated model to identify implications for the policy response during episodes of household deleveraging. Measures that reduce the debt burden of borrowers are effective in alleviating the short-run and persistent effects of deleveraging. In terms of monetary policy, the endogenous response of productivity growth warrants a greater focus on short-run output stabilization as opposed to inflation stabilization. Finally, in the third chapter (joint with Fabio Ghironi) we study the macroeconomic consequences of trade policy uncertainty emphasizing its negative effects on productivity growth. To that end, we build a small open economy model with nominal rigidity, innovation-driven endogenous growth, and time-varying volatility of domestic import tariffs. Several conclusions emerge: import tariff uncertainty shocks act as aggregate supply shocks; they cause a temporary improvement of the current account along with the real exchange rate appreciation in the medium run. In addition, an increase in import tariff uncertainty causes a sharp decline in the introduction of new intermediate products, which is detrimental to productivity growth and prolongs the effect of the shock. The size of these persistent effects -- relative to short-term effects -- is much larger for tariff uncertainty shock than for tariff level shocks. We show that endogenous risk premia in equity and bond markets is the key channel transmitting the shock to the broader economy and study role monetary policy in shaping it.
Book Synopsis Essays in International Finance and Macroeconomics by : Galip K. Ozhan
Download or read book Essays in International Finance and Macroeconomics written by Galip K. Ozhan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of essays in the intersection of international finance, macroeconomics, and monetary economics. The first essay studies the role of the financial sector in affecting domestic resource allocation and cross-border capital flows. I develop a quantitative, two-country, macroeconomic model in which banks face endogenous and occasionally binding leverage constraints. Banks lend funds to be invested in tradable or non-tradable sector capital and there is international financial integration in the market for bank liabilities. I focus on news about economic fundamentals as the key source of fluctuations. Specifically, in the case of positive news on the valuation of non-traded sector capital that turn out to be incorrect at a later date, the model generates an asymmetric, belief-driven boom-bust cycle that reproduces key features of the recent Eurozone crisis. Bank balance sheets amplify and propagate fluctuations through three channels when leverage constraints bind: First, amplified wealth effects induce jumps in import-demand (demand channel). Second, changes in the value of non-tradable sector assets alter bank lending to tradable sector firms (intra-national spillover channel). Third, domestic and foreign households re-adjust their savings in domestic banks, and capital flows further amplify fluctuations (international spillover channel). A common central bank’s unconventional policies of private asset purchases and liquidity facilities in response to unfulfilled expectations are successful at ameliorating the economic downturn. In the second essay, co-authored with Professor Ghironi, we study the implications of using the volatility of domestic interest rate as a policy instrument in a small open economy. We develop an international macroeconomic model of the interaction between an emerging market economy (EME) and global investors. EME central banker uses time-varying domestic interest rate volatility as a policy tool, and global investors have the opportunity to sell productive capital to the EME producers (FDI), in addition to having the opportunity to invest in one-period international and EME securities. We assess the effectiveness of using domestic interest rate volatility as a policy tool in distinguishing short-term security flows from long-term FDI flows, and identify the trade-offs that are faced in navigating financial strength and price stability. We find that an increase in interest rate volatility can attract FDI inflows while discouraging short-term security inflows, if the economy is subject to low- degree of pricing frictions. However, if prices are highly sticky, there is a co-movement of long-run FDI and short-run security outflows. Moreover, an increase in policy uncertainty induces higher price volatility.
Book Synopsis Post-Keynesian Essays from Down Under Volume II: Essays on Policy and Applied Economics by : G. Harcourt
Download or read book Post-Keynesian Essays from Down Under Volume II: Essays on Policy and Applied Economics written by G. Harcourt and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Joseph Halevi, G. C. Harcourt, Peter Kriesler and J. W. Nevile bring together a collection of their most influential papers on post-Keynesian thought. Their work stresses the importance of the underlying institutional framework, of the economy as a historical process and, therefore, of path determinacy. In addition, their essays suggest the ultimate goal of economics is as a tool to inform policy and make the world a better place, with better being defined by an overriding concern with social justice. Volume II assess application and policies.
Book Synopsis How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy by : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Download or read book How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Book Synopsis Essays in International Economics by : Peter B. Kenen
Download or read book Essays in International Economics written by Peter B. Kenen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written form 1957 through 1978 by one of the foremost authorities in the field of international economics, this collection of Peter Kenen's previously published essays deals with issues in the pure theory of international trade, international monetary theory, and international monetary reform. The essays in Part I, "Trade, Tariffs, and Welfare," concern the roles of tangible and human capital in the determination of trade patterns, the joint determination of demand conditions and trade patterns, the gains from international trade, and the effects of migration on economic welfare. Part II, "International Monetary Theory and Policy," contains essays on the theory of gold-exchange standard, the determination of forward exchange rates, the demand for international reserves, economic integration and the delineation of currency areas, and the process of balance of payments adjustment under pegged and floating exchange rates. The essays in Part III, "Monetary Reform and the Dollar," are arranged in chonological order, from 1963 through 1977, and focus on the problems and progress of international monetary reform and on the functioning of the present international monetary system. Peter B. Kenen is Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance at Princeton University. The Princeton Sereies of Collected Essays provides facsimile reprints, in paperback and in cloth, of important articles by leading scholars. Originally published in 1981. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Book Synopsis Development and Stabilization in Small Open Economies by : DeLisle Worrell
Download or read book Development and Stabilization in Small Open Economies written by DeLisle Worrell and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-01-06 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses and explains the nature of the economies of small countries and territories. It includes an assessment of material prosperity in 41 small open economies worldwide, with case studies focusing on the Caribbean and Central America, with a review of the development of their economies in recent decades. The volume recommends a suite of economic policy tools for the management of these economies, demonstrating how these may best be employed in economies that live and breathe through international commerce. Among observations of interest is the fact that the devaluation of the local currency of a small nation makes the country worse off; even a currency that maintains its value is little more than a trophy, of little value if it is not readily convertible into US dollars. Also, that while government policies affect international competitiveness and a small country's growth prospects, more important is how governments use additional resources to improve the quality of health and educational services. Moreover, economic windfalls such as the discovery of mineral resources seldom bring prosperity commensurate with their economic value, and never in the short run. The volume will offer invaluable information and analysis to researchers and policy makers investigating small open economies.
Book Synopsis Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova by : Juan J. Dolado
Download or read book Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova written by Juan J. Dolado and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.
Book Synopsis Trade, Growth, and Economic Policy in Open Economies by : Karl-Josef Koch
Download or read book Trade, Growth, and Economic Policy in Open Economies written by Karl-Josef Koch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part 1 of this volume focusses on globalization. Gains from trade, international competitiveness, labour market issues in open economies, customs unions, dumping and intra-firm trade are the topics of this part. Part 2 puts a stronger emphasis on dynamic economics. Social income, intergenerational transfers, public pension systems, and bequest and gift motives in overlapping generation models are main topics. Economic policies are analyzed in Part 3, including the relation between wage rigidity and migration, several aspects of German financial and monetary policy, as well as tax competition. The volume concludes with institutional issues of globalization, a western view on eastern transition, social cost of rent seeking, and the evolution of social institutions.
Book Synopsis The Economics of World War I by : Stephen Broadberry
Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Book Synopsis Essays in Economic Policy and Economic Growth by : I. G. Patel
Download or read book Essays in Economic Policy and Economic Growth written by I. G. Patel and published by Springer. This book was released on 1986-10-13 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research papers, economic policy, economic development, India - examines development policy, trade policy, balance of payments, agricultural policy, inflation, income distribution, economic planning, productivity policy, etc.; studies the repercussions on employment, basic needs fulfilment, low income families, etc; evaluates the impact on developing countries of development aid, economic aid and economic cooperation.
