Essays In Demographic And Macroeconomic Trends

Author : Hoi-Tak Philip Ng
Publisher : Open Dissertation Press
ISBN 13 : 9781361440315
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (43 download)

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Download or read book Three Essays on Population, Income, and Distribution written by Hoi-Tak Philip Ng and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Three Essays on Population, Income, and Distribution" by Hoi-tak, Philip, Ng, 吳凱特, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled Three Essays on Population, Income, and Distribution submitted by Philip Hoi-Tak Ng for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong in June 2006 Over the very long run, population, income and distribution are three very important variables affecting human economic history. This research examines their interrelationship across a long span of history. It is divided into three parts: Part I (Population and Income) In the preindustrial era, income was uniformly low and more evenly dis- tributed among ordinary people compared with the present day. The vicis- situdes of life then manifested themselves in the degree to which population changed. The Classical Growth model or the Malthusian model (CGM) is supposedly the workhorse model when economists try to understand the macrodemographic behavior of this period. But the literature is scattered and unorganized. We contribute by systematically surveying the current lit- erature and by providing a synthesis of different models. Our model encom- passing exercise reveals some interesting underlying behavioral mechanisms, such as the importance of technical change in driving population growth. The predictions from these models are then compared with real global and country-level population data from the past two millennia. We argue that the model which displays roughly constant income level and accelerating popu- lation growth best fits the data. Certain CGM models have achieved some success in this aspect. Part II (Income and Population) Entering the industrial era and the post world war period, the behavior of income and population experienced unprecedented and tremendous changes. For many countries, income embarked on sustained growth and the machine of demographic transition geared up. However there are many variations 1among economies concerning the behavior of income and population. One puzzling issue concerns the pace of population growth decline. The Barro- Becker model is employed to examine this issue and it is found that the model is unable to quantitatively account for the significant drop in popula- tion growth in Taiwan and South Korea. Modifications to the basic model to include technological catch-up are made in an attempt to improve the per- formance of the model. The augmented Barro-Becker model, under plausible parameter values, does improve on the basic Barro-Becker model, especially in fitting the output data. However, there is still room for improvement on its quantitative significance in explaining the pace of demographic transition. Part III (Income and Distribution) As total output or income expands, the distribution of income becomes ever more significant. How are the income growth and the inequality change related? We inspect a mechanism of inequality change which is different from the traditional sectoral shift mechanism of the Inverted-U Hypothesis in this part. Development is inegalitarian because advanced technology adoption is like a queue that favors rich and human-capital-abundant people. Thus higher growth is realized only gradually in an economy. A transitional pe- riod with an increase in inequality will follow. Furthermore, if the growth rate differential induced by technological differences is large, the increase in inequality will be very rapid. Lorenz dominance analysis is used to establish analytical results. Findings show that the above model is able to explain the ph