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Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models The Euro And The 2004 Expansion Of The Eu
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Author :Isabell Koske Publisher :Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN 13 : Total Pages :212 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models, the Euro and the 2004 Expansion of the EU by : Isabell Koske
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models, the Euro and the 2004 Expansion of the EU written by Isabell Koske and published by Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften. This book was released on 2007 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the launch of the euro in 1999, researchers, policy makers, and business analysts have put great interest in the evolution of the external value of the euro. In 2004 the European Monetary Union expanded its membership with the accession of ten countries from central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. As these countries are committed to adopt the euro as soon as they fulfill the Maastricht criteria, knowing their currencies' equilibrium value is of great policy interest. This study addresses these questions by deriving equilibrium exchange rate paths for the euro and for the currencies of the new EU member countries. Specifically, one part investigates in how far variations in seven bilateral nominal euro exchange rates can be explained by monetary factors and then estimates the equilibrium path of the real effective exchange rate of the euro based on the NATREX approach. The final chapters derive equilibrium exchange rate paths for the currencies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the three Baltic countries using a small country version of the NATREX model.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Exchange Rates of Central and Eastern European Countries on the Road to the European Monetary Union by : Jörg Rahn
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates of Central and Eastern European Countries on the Road to the European Monetary Union written by Jörg Rahn and published by Peter Lang Publishing. This book was released on 2005 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The upcoming enlargement of the European Monetary Union involves the selection of appropriate reference rates at which the exchange rates of the accession countries will be fixed against the euro in order to avoid economic distortions as consequences of serious exchange rate misalignments. Determination of an exchange rate that is neither undervalued nor overvalued raises the issue of equilibrium exchange rates. Based on time series as well as panel estimation techniques three different concepts - BEER, PEER and PPP - are applied in this study to calculate equilibrium exchange rate levels for ten Central and Eastern European countries. The results indicate significant real misalignments in a number of accession countries.
Book Synopsis Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates by : Mr.Angel J. Ubide
Download or read book Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Mr.Angel J. Ubide and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Exchange Rates by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-07-31 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries by : Balázs Égert
Download or read book Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries written by Balázs Égert and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries by : Balázs Égert
Download or read book Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries written by Balázs Égert and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ambition of this study is to estimate the equilibrium real and nominal exchange rates for 5 selected Central and Eastern European transition economies, namely for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. For this purpose, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) methodology developed by Williamson (1994) is combined with the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach advocated by Clark and McDonald (1998). Our investigation is based on the notion of internal and external balances defined respectively in terms of the relative price of non-tradable goods and the long-run sustainability of the current account position, and is carried out in the framework of a VAR-based 3-equation cointegration system. Long-term equilibrium values for relative prices are determined using relative productivity and private consumption, whereas the current account is regressed on terms of trade and the openness ratio. To derive the equilibrium real exchange rate and to compute subsequently the extent of misalignment, the long-run values for external and internal balances are substituted in the simultaneously estimated cointegration relationships connecting the real effective exchange rate with relative prices and the current account. The empirical findings show that the gap between the observed and estimated equilibrium real exchange rates differs across the 5 transition countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia may have experienced an excessive appreciation of their real effective exchange rate whilst Hungary and Slovenia show little sign of overvaluation during the period under study. These results suggest the role flexible exchange rate regimes may play in exchange rate misalignments. Assuming that the obtained misalignment can be eliminated with adjustments in the nominal exchange rate, the estimated misalignment is used to derive the equilibrium nominal exchange rate against the euro. Finally, we construct a hypothetical ERM-II so as to investigate the nominal exchange rate stability around the estimated equilibrium nominal exchange rate.
Book Synopsis Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates by : Enrique Alberola
Download or read book Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Enrique Alberola and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the New EU Members by : Enrique Alberola
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the New EU Members written by Enrique Alberola and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bilaterial Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro by : Jörg Rahn
Download or read book Bilaterial Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro written by Jörg Rahn and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe. Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques are used to check the adequacy of the empirical model. The results reveal substantial overvaluations of the real exchange rate in several EU accession countries. Overvaluation is even higher when these exchange rates are expressed in nominal terms against the euro.
Book Synopsis The EME Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates by : Lukasz Rawdanowicz
Download or read book The EME Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates written by Lukasz Rawdanowicz and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper deals with the choice of the nominal euro conversion rates for the acceding countries upon their accession to EMU. The paper reviews theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates as well as discusses their interpretation and the ensuing policy recommendations. Problems with empirical estimations of existing models are addressed. It is argued that despite several equilibrium exchange rate theories not all of them are useful for the real policy choice of the nominal conversion rate. This and the intrinsic uncertainty of equilibrium exchange rate estimates lead to the conclusion that the range of 'optimal' euro conversion rates is quiet wide and other issues must be taken into account. In particular, a smooth transition to the euro conversion rate and minimisation of risks of potential shocks to the economy should be the key concern. Consequently, recommendations for the selection of nominal conversion rates are largely dependent on the current exchange rate regime.
Book Synopsis The Enlargement of the European Union and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates by : Ali M. Kutan
Download or read book The Enlargement of the European Union and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates written by Ali M. Kutan and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors further investigate the conditional variance and the persistence of real exchange rate (RER) shocks between Germany and some core European Union (EU) members from January, 1973 through 2004. Using data for all EU15 countries, they test whether the enlargement of the Union has reduced the variability and the persistence of RER shocks between Germany and the rest of the members during the 1990s. They also examine the impact of the introduction of the euro on the variance and persistence of real exchange rate shocks. Finally, the authors extend the analysis to the new members who joined in May, 2004. The results have implications for the economic cost of joining the Union, as well as assessing the timing of the newest members to enter the eurozone.
Book Synopsis The Empirical Determinants of the Euro by : Menzie David Chinn
Download or read book The Empirical Determinants of the Euro written by Menzie David Chinn and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates in the Ceecs by : Jarko Fidrmuc
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates in the Ceecs written by Jarko Fidrmuc and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A panel data set for six Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate the monetary exchange rate model with panel cointegration methods, including the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Fully Modified Least Square estimator and the Dynamic Least Square estimator. The monetary model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of exchange rates in CEECs, particularly when this is supplemented by a Balassa-Samuelson effect. We then use our long-run monetary estimates to compute equilibrium exchange rates. Finally, we discuss the implications for the accession of selected countries to the European Economic and Monetary Union.
Book Synopsis Labor Market Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium Model for Lithuania by : Lodovico Pizzati
Download or read book Labor Market Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium Model for Lithuania written by Lodovico Pizzati and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On February 2, 2002, Lithuania switched its currency anchor from the dollar to the euro. While pegging to the dollar (since April 1994) has proven successful throughout the transition years, the recent decision to peg to the euro was motivated by the increasing trade relations with European economies. Pizzati does not argue which peg is more appropriate, but he analyzes the implications of changing the exchange rate regime for different sectors and labor groups.While pegging to the euro entails more stability for the export sector, Lithuania is still dependent on dollar-based imports of primary goods from the Commonwealth of Independent States, more so than other Baltic countries or Central European economies.Pizzati uses a multisector general equilibrium model to compare the effects of dollar-euro exchange rate movements under these alternative pegs. Overall, simulation results suggest that while a euro-peg will provide more stability to GDP and employment, it will also imply more volatility in prices, suggesting that under the new peg macroeconomic policy should be more concerned with inflationary pressures than before. From a sector-specific perspective, pegging to the euro will provide a more stable demand for unskilled-intensive manufacturing and commercial services. But other sectors, such as agriculture, will still face the same vulnerability to exchange rate movements. This suggests that additional policy measures may be needed to compensate sector-specific divergences.This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to address European Union integration issues in transition economies.
Book Synopsis Model Uncertainty and the Equilibrium Value of the Real Effective Euro Exchange Rate by : Carsten Detken
Download or read book Model Uncertainty and the Equilibrium Value of the Real Effective Euro Exchange Rate written by Carsten Detken and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe by : Balázs Égert
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe written by Balázs Égert and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sets out to analyse the ever-growing literature on equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative manner using meta-regression analysis. We study the extent to which the estimated real misalignments reported in the literature depend on the underlying theoretical approach (Balassa-Samuelson effect, Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) and on other characteristics of the individual studies. We also seek to explore whether we can gain more insight from the literature regarding what determines the size and, perhaps more importantly, the sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity variable and of two other variables commonly included in real exchange rate determination equations, notably net foreign assets and openness.
Book Synopsis Europe and Global Imbalances by : Philip R. Lane
Download or read book Europe and Global Imbalances written by Philip R. Lane and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-06 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.
