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Epidemic Dynamics Disease Extinction And Critical Community Size In Homogeneously Mixed And Network Populations
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Book Synopsis Epidemic Dynamics, Disease Extinction and Critical Community Size in Homogeneously Mixed and Network Populations by : Ioannis Taxidis
Download or read book Epidemic Dynamics, Disease Extinction and Critical Community Size in Homogeneously Mixed and Network Populations written by Ioannis Taxidis and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Epidemic Dynamics in Heterogeneous Populations by : Thomas Joseph Hladish
Download or read book Epidemic Dynamics in Heterogeneous Populations written by Thomas Joseph Hladish and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Epidemiological models traditionally make the assumption that populations are homogeneous. By relaxing that assumption, models often become more complicated, but better representations of the real world. Here we describe new computational tools for studying heterogeneous populations, and we examine consequences of two particular types of heterogeneity: that people are not all equally likely to interact, and that people are not all equally likely to become infected if exposed to a pathogen. Contact network epidemiology provides a robust and flexible paradigm for thinking about heterogeneous populations. Despite extensive mathematical and algorithmic methods, however, we lack a programming framework for working with epidemiological contact networks and for the simulation of disease transmission through such networks. We present EpiFire, a C++ applications programming interface and graphical user interface, which includes a fast and efficient library for generating, analyzing and manipulating networks. EpiFire also provides a variety of traditional and network-based epidemic simulations. Heterogeneous population structure may cause multi-wave epidemics, but urban populations are generally assumed to be too well mixed to have such structure. Multi-wave epidemics are not predicted by simple models, and are particularly problematic for public health officials deploying limited resources. Using a unique empirical interaction network for 103,000 people in Montreal, Canada, we show that large, urban populations may feature sufficient community structure to drive multi-wave dynamics, and that highly connected individuals may play an important role in whether communities are synchronized. Finally, we show that heterogeneous immunity is an important determinant of influenza epidemic size. While many epidemic models assume a homogeneously susceptible population and describe dynamics for one season, the trans-seasonal dynamics of partially immunizing diseases likely play a critical role in determining both future epidemic size and pathogen evolution. We present a multi-season network model of a population exposed to a pathogen conferring partial cross-immunity that decays over time. We fit the model to 25 years of influenza-like illness epidemic data from France using a novel Bayesian technique. Using conservative priors, we estimate important epidemiological quantities that are consistent with empirical studies.
Book Synopsis Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics by : Odo Diekmann
Download or read book Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics written by Odo Diekmann and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference by : Tom Britton
Download or read book Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference written by Tom Britton and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-30 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.
Book Synopsis Ecology, Genetics and Evolution of Metapopulations by : Ilkka A. Hanski
Download or read book Ecology, Genetics and Evolution of Metapopulations written by Ilkka A. Hanski and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2004-05-17 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ecology, Genetics and Evolution of Metapopulations is acollection of specially commissioned articles that looks at fragmented habitats, bringing together recent theoretical advances and empirical studies applying the metapopulation approach. Several chapters closely integrate ecology with genetics and evolutionary biology, and others illustrate how metapopulation concepts and models can be applied to answer questions about conservation, epidemiology, and speciation. The extensive coverage of theory from highly regarded scientists and the many substantive applications in this one-of-a-kind work make it invaluable to graduate students and researchers in a wide range of disciplines. Provides a comprehensive and authoritative account of all aspects of metapopulation biology, integrating ecology, genetics, and evolution Developed by recognized experts, including Hanski who won the Balzan Prize for Ecological Sciences Covers novel applications of the metapopulation approach to conservation
Book Synopsis Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics by : Odo Diekmann
Download or read book Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics written by Odo Diekmann and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-18 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic models and methods. Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics fully explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology. This comprehensive and accessible book also features numerous detailed exercises throughout; full elaborations to all exercises are provided. Covers the latest research in mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemiology Integrates deterministic and stochastic approaches Teaches skills in model construction, analysis, inference, and interpretation Features numerous exercises and their detailed elaborations Motivated by real-world applications throughout
Book Synopsis Mathematical Epidemiology by : Fred Brauer
Download or read book Mathematical Epidemiology written by Fred Brauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
Book Synopsis Metapopulation Ecology by : Ilkka Hanski
Download or read book Metapopulation Ecology written by Ilkka Hanski and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999-03-18 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a world renowned biologist, this volume offers a comprehensive synthesis of current research in this rapidly expanding area of population biology. It covers both the essential theory and a wide range of empirical studies, including the author's groundbreaking work on the Glanville fritillary butterfly. It also includes practical applications to conservation biology. The book describes theoretical models for metapopulation dynamics in highly fragmented landscapes and emphasizes spatially realistic models. It presents the incidence function model and includes several detailed examples of its application. Accessible to advanced undergraduate and graduate students, Metapopulation Ecology will be a valuable resource for researchers in population biology, conservation biology, and landscape ecology.
Book Synopsis Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases by : Piero Manfredi
Download or read book Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases written by Piero Manfredi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.
Book Synopsis Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks by : István Z. Kiss
Download or read book Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks written by István Z. Kiss and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-08 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides an exciting new addition to the area of network science featuring a stronger and more methodical link of models to their mathematical origin and explains how these relate to each other with special focus on epidemic spread on networks. The content of the book is at the interface of graph theory, stochastic processes and dynamical systems. The authors set out to make a significant contribution to closing the gap between model development and the supporting mathematics. This is done by: Summarising and presenting the state-of-the-art in modeling epidemics on networks with results and readily usable models signposted throughout the book; Presenting different mathematical approaches to formulate exact and solvable models; Identifying the concrete links between approximate models and their rigorous mathematical representation; Presenting a model hierarchy and clearly highlighting the links between model assumptions and model complexity; Providing a reference source for advanced undergraduate students, as well as doctoral students, postdoctoral researchers and academic experts who are engaged in modeling stochastic processes on networks; Providing software that can solve differential equation models or directly simulate epidemics on networks. Replete with numerous diagrams, examples, instructive exercises, and online access to simulation algorithms and readily usable code, this book will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers from different backgrounds and academic levels. Appropriate for students with or without a strong background in mathematics, this textbook can form the basis of an advanced undergraduate or graduate course in both mathematics and other departments alike.
Download or read book Epidemics written by Ottar N. Bjørnstad and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-30 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.
Book Synopsis Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by : Matt J. Keeling
Download or read book Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals written by Matt J. Keeling and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-19 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control
Download or read book Epidemic Models written by Denis Mollison and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-07-13 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surveys the state of epidemic modelling, resulting from the NATO Advanced Workshop at the Newton Institute in 1993.
Book Synopsis Wildlife Disease Ecology by : Kenneth Wilson
Download or read book Wildlife Disease Ecology written by Kenneth Wilson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-11-14 with total page 693 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces readers to key case studies that illustrate how theory and data can be integrated to understand wildlife disease ecology.
Book Synopsis Viral Infections of Humans by : Alfred S. Evans
Download or read book Viral Infections of Humans written by Alfred S. Evans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: also occurs. New outbreaks of yellow fever have occurred in Colombia and Trinidad and new outbreaks of rift valley fever have occurred in Egypt. Chapter 6, Arenaviruses: The biochemical and physical properties have now been clar ified, and they show a remarkable uniformity in the various viruses constituting the group. The possibility that prenatal infection with LCM may result in hydrocephalus and chorioretinitis has been raised. Serologic surveys have suggested the existence of Lassa virus infection in Guinea, Central African Empire, Mali, Senegal, Cameroon, and Benin, in addition to earlier identification in Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Chapter 7, Coronaviruses: New studies have confirmed the important role of these viruses in common respiratory illnesses of children and adults. The viruses are now known to contain a single positive strand of RNA. About 50% of corona virus infections result in clinical illness. About 5% of common colds are caused by strain DC 43 in winter. Chapter 8, Cytomegalovirus: Sections on pathogenesis of CMV in relation to organ transplantation and mononucleosis, as well as sections on the risk and features of con genital infection and disease, have been expanded. There are encouraging preliminary results with a live CMV vaccine, but the questions of viral persistence and oncogenicity require further evaluation.
Book Synopsis Infectious Disease Ecology by : Richard S. Ostfeld
Download or read book Infectious Disease Ecology written by Richard S. Ostfeld and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-12-16 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: News headlines are forever reporting diseases that take huge tolls on humans, wildlife, domestic animals, and both cultivated and native plants worldwide. These diseases can also completely transform the ecosystems that feed us and provide us with other critical benefits, from flood control to water purification. And yet diseases sometimes serve to maintain the structure and function of the ecosystems on which humans depend. Gathering thirteen essays by forty leading experts who convened at the Cary Conference at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies in 2005, this book develops an integrated framework for understanding where these diseases come from, what ecological factors influence their impacts, and how they in turn influence ecosystem dynamics. It marks the first comprehensive and in-depth exploration of the rich and complex linkages between ecology and disease, and provides conceptual underpinnings to understand and ameliorate epidemics. It also sheds light on the roles that diseases play in ecosystems, bringing vital new insights to landscape management issues in particular. While the ecological context is a key piece of the puzzle, effective control and understanding of diseases requires the interaction of professionals in medicine, epidemiology, veterinary medicine, forestry, agriculture, and ecology. The essential resource on the subject, Infectious Disease Ecology seeks to bridge these fields with an ecological approach that focuses on systems thinking and complex interactions.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis by : Hakan Andersson
Download or read book Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis written by Hakan Andersson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.
