Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis

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Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint by :

Download or read book Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 9780128123720
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (237 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation by :

Download or read book The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach by :

Download or read book Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Author : Jan Kleissl
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 012397772X
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment by : Jan Kleissl

Download or read book Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment written by Jan Kleissl and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

Global Sensitivity Analysis

Author : Andrea Saltelli
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470725177
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (251 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Sensitivity Analysis by : Andrea Saltelli

Download or read book Global Sensitivity Analysis written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Author : Patrick James Mathiesen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781303627774
Total Pages : 121 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (277 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting by : Patrick James Mathiesen

Download or read book Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting written by Patrick James Mathiesen and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To effectively manage the growing density of solar power installations, grid operators are increasingly relying on solar forecasts to predict irradiance and power from minutes to days ahead. For forecast horizons of five hours or greater, large-scale computational fluid dynamics models known collectively as numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the most accurate method of predicting solar irradiance. Though more accurate than statistical regression or imagery based techniques, NWP is consistently erroneous and generally under-represents cloud cover; approximately half of all cloudy days are incorrectly forecast as clear. Furthermore, these errors are exacerbated for regions with dynamic cloud cover such as the California coast. On average, this results in irradiance over-predictions of 20-25%. Overall, these weaknesses limit NWP's utility for solar power forecasting. However, by coupling meteorological theory with statistical techniques and model improvements, a specialized forecasting system can be developed that significantly improves forecast accuracy. In this study, several advanced NWP techniques are implemented to improve forecast accuracy. First, the accuracy of the existing operational NWP is evaluated. By relating forecast accuracy to meteorological regime, model-output-statistics (MOS) is used to bias-correct forecasts and improve mean absolute error (MAE) by approximately 5%. Additionally, MOS was used to characterize forecast certainty; meteorological regimes with historically erroneous forecasts were prescribed with wider confidence intervals. Though valuable for operational forecasting, statistical models such as these fail to address the model weaknesses that prevent the accurate simulation of clouds. To directly improve cloud simulations, a high-resolution NWP specialized for solar irradiance forecasting in coastal areas was developed and implemented operationally (WRF-SRAF). Using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) architecture, WRF-SRAF was used to predict solar irradiance for days in which marine layer stratocumulus (MLS) clouds were observed in San Diego, CA. In general, it was found that simulated MLS clouds dissipated 1.9 hours earlier than observed and that model error was primarily attributed to inaccurate initial conditions and incorrect treatment of the surface energy balance. To improve model initializations, a method of direct-cloud assimilation was implemented. In this method, satellite observations were co-located with the model domain. For areas with observed cloud cover, modeled water vapor was raised to super-saturation, populating clouds in the initial conditions. Lastly, a cloud dissipation model was derived in order predict the influence of the surface heat fluxes on cloud evaporation. It was found that, due to extraordinarily dry boundary conditions, simulated sensible heat fluxes were 2-3 times larger than observed. Subsequently, a background uncertainty in the surface boundary conditions was established and used to motivate a systematic perturbation to future simulations. Using this surface modification in an ensemble setting, solar forecast accuracy improved by over 7% and the dissipation of MLS clouds was more accurately characterized.

Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting

Author : André Gensler
Publisher : kassel university press GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3737606366
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (376 download)

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Book Synopsis Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting by : André Gensler

Download or read book Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting written by André Gensler and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.

Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation

Author : Marius Paulescu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447146492
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation by : Marius Paulescu

Download or read book Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation written by Marius Paulescu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-05 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past decade, there has been a substantial increase of grid-feeding photovoltaic applications, thus raising the importance of solar electricity in the energy mix. This trend is expected to continue and may even increase. Apart from the high initial investment cost, the fluctuating nature of the solar resource raises particular insertion problems in electrical networks. Proper grid managing demands short- and long-time forecasting of solar power plant output. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is focused on this issue. Models for predicting the state of the sky, nowcasting solar irradiance and forecasting solar irradiation are studied and exemplified. Statistical as well as artificial intelligence methods are described. The efficiency of photovoltaic converters is assessed for any weather conditions. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is written for researchers, engineers, physicists and students interested in PV systems design and utilization. “p>

Forecast Verification

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470864419
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Global Drought and Flood

Author : Huan Wu
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119427215
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Drought and Flood by : Huan Wu

Download or read book Global Drought and Flood written by Huan Wu and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-08-10 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods Droughts and floods are causing increasing damage worldwide, often with devastating short- and long-term impacts on human society. Forecasting when they will occur, monitoring them as they develop, and learning from the past to improve disaster management is vital. Global Drought and Flood: Observation, Modeling, and Prediction presents recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods. It also describes the techniques and products currently available and how they are being used in practice. Volume highlights include: Remote sensing approaches for mapping droughts and floods Physical and statistical models for monitoring and forecasting hydrologic hazards Features of various drought and flood systems and products Use by governments, humanitarian, and development stakeholders in recent disaster cases Improving the collaboration between hazard information provision and end users The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309380979
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El NiÃ±o, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Severe Convective Storms

Author : Charles Doswell
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1935704060
Total Pages : 567 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (357 download)

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Book Synopsis Severe Convective Storms by : Charles Doswell

Download or read book Severe Convective Storms written by Charles Doswell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly illustrated book is a collection of 13 review papers focusing on convective storms and the weather they produce. It discusses severe convective storms, mesoscale processes, tornadoes and tornadic storms, severe local storms, flash flood forecast and the electrification of severe storms.

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications

Author : M. Sengupta
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)

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Book Synopsis Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications by : M. Sengupta

Download or read book Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications written by M. Sengupta and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309161347
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.