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Economic Activity Fiscal Space And Types Of Covid 19 Containment Measures
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Book Synopsis Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures by : Amr Hosny
Download or read book Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures written by Amr Hosny and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-28 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that the type of COVID-19 containment measures affects the trade-offs between infection cases, economic activity and sovereign risk. Using local projection methods and a year and a half of high-frequency daily data covering 44 advanced and emerging economies, we find that smart (e.g. testing) as opposed to physical (e.g. lockdown) measures appear to be best placed to tackle these trade-offs. Initial conditions also matter whereby containment measures can be less disruptive when public health response time is fast and public debt is low. We also construct a database of daily fiscal announcements for Euro area countries, and find that sovereign risk is improved under a combination of large support packages and smart measures.
Book Synopsis The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures by : Pragyan Deb
Download or read book The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures written by Pragyan Deb and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-07 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.
Book Synopsis The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 by : World Bank
Download or read book The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-04-12 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the region had entered a phase of lackluster performance. Recent developments, including a new oil price shock, and the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic will push the region into recession. Many countries are struggling to contain the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic while avoiding a dramatic decline in economic activity. The report analyzes how to think about this tradeoff. It estimates the potential health costs, assesses the effectiveness of diverse containment strategies, and discusses how large the economic cost could be. The current crisis is unprecedented because it combines a fall in global demand, tighter financial conditions and a major supply shock. The response needs to consider how to socialize the losses, how to prevent a collapse of the financial sector, how to protect jobs and livelihoods, and how to manage and divest the assets that will inevitably end up in the hands of the state.
Book Synopsis The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity by : Mr. Pragyan Deb
Download or read book The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity written by Mr. Pragyan Deb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-19 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.
Book Synopsis After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage by : Mr. Philip Barrett
Download or read book After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Book Synopsis Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies by : Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Download or read book Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Emerging Markets by : Cem Çakmaklı
Download or read book COVID-19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
Book Synopsis Policy Actions for COVID-19 Economic Recovery by : Ramesh Subramaniam
Download or read book Policy Actions for COVID-19 Economic Recovery written by Ramesh Subramaniam and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2021-07-01 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Policy Actions for COVID-19 Economic Recovery (PACER) Dialogues were held from June to September 2020 as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic accelerated around the world. They shared cutting-edge knowledge and best practices to help countries in Southeast Asia and the People's Republic of China strengthen cooperation to mitigate the devastating effects of COVID-19 and accelerate their economic recovery. This compendium of 13 policy briefs summarizes the discussions, recommendations, and actionable insights from the PACER Dialogues.
Book Synopsis Impacts of COVID-19 on food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria by : Amare, Mulubrhan
Download or read book Impacts of COVID-19 on food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria written by Amare, Mulubrhan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-08-11 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.
Book Synopsis The Rise in Inequality After Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role? by : Davide Furceri
Download or read book The Rise in Inequality After Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role? written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Book Synopsis Economic and fiscal outlook by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Book Synopsis Twin Deficits in Developing Economies by : Davide Furceri
Download or read book Twin Deficits in Developing Economies written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time. The effect tends to be larger: (i) during recessions; in countries (ii) that are more open to trade; (iii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes; and (iv) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513568817 Total Pages :74 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 by : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Book Synopsis Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World by : Ms.Manuela Goretti
Download or read book Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Author :Maurice Obstfeld Publisher :Peterson Institute for International Economics ISBN 13 :0881327409 Total Pages :128 pages Book Rating :4.8/5 (813 download)
Book Synopsis How the G20 Can Hasten Recovery from COVID-19 by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book How the G20 Can Hasten Recovery from COVID-19 written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by Peterson Institute for International Economics. This book was released on 2020-04-21 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world's leading economic powers must cooperate more to combat the health and economic shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In a new free eBook, PIIE Briefing, How the G20 can hasten recovery from COVID-19, Peterson Institute experts outline how collective action by the Group of Twenty (G20) nations can make a difference. The PIIE agenda includes removal of trade barriers impeding the flow of medical supplies and food, and more money for research, testing, and disease control, especially for debt-burdened low-income countries. The World Bank and the World Health Organization need more resources to relieve suffering, and the International Monetary Fund must step up to stabilize the world financial system.
Book Synopsis The Promise of Fintech by : Ms.Ratna Sahay
Download or read book The Promise of Fintech written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology is changing the landscape of the financial sector, increasing access to financial services in profound ways. These changes have been in motion for several years, affecting nearly all countries in the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, technology has created new opportunities for digital financial services to accelerate and enhance financial inclusion, amid social distancing and containment measures. At the same time, the risks emerging prior to COVID-19, as digital financial services developed, are becoming even more relevant.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
