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Author : Ward Edwards
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing written by Ward Edwards and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : G. Haag
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940090939X
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory written by G. Haag and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof. W. Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
Author : Douglas John White
Publisher : Transaction Publishers
ISBN 13 : 0202365395
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (23 download)
Download or read book Decision Theory written by Douglas John White and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some concepts and their interpretation; Theories of choice, value and uncertainty; Decidability; Some practical considerations in decision analysis; Information for decision; Pragmatic aspects of decision theory; Mathematical models and decision.
Author : A.V. Gheorghe
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400904932
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Decision Processes in Dynamic Probabilistic Systems written by A.V. Gheorghe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Et moi - ... - si j'avait su comment en revenir. One service mathematics has rendered the je n'y serais point aile: human race. It has put common sense back where it belongs. on the topmost shelf next Jules Verne (0 the dusty canister labelled 'discarded non sense'. The series is divergent; therefore we may be able to do something with it. Eric T. Bell O. Heaviside Mathematics is a tool for thought. A highly necessary tool in a world where both feedback and non linearities abound. Similarly, all kinds of parts of mathematics serve as tools for other parts and for other sciences. Applying a simple rewriting rule to the quote on the right above one finds such statements as: 'One service topology has rendered mathematical physics .. .'; 'One service logic has rendered com puter science .. .'; 'One service category theory has rendered mathematics .. .'. All arguably true. And all statements obtainable this way form part of the raison d'etre of this series.
Author : D. Wendt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401018340
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080465706
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)
Download or read book Info-Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Author : Brian Skyrms
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674218857
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (188 download)
Download or read book The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation written by Brian Skyrms and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brian Skyrms constructs a theory of "dynamic deliberation" and uses it to investigate rational decisionmaking in cases of strategic interaction. This illuminating book will be of great interest to all those in many disciplines who use decision theory and game theory to study human behavior and thought. Skyrms begins by discussing the Bayesian theory of individual rational decision and the classical theory of games, which at first glance seem antithetical in the criteria used for determining action. In his effort to show how methods for dealing with information feedback can be productively combined, the author skillfully leads us through the mazes of equilibrium selection, the Nash equilibria for normal and extensive forms, structural stability, causal decision theory, dynamic probability, the revision of beliefs, and, finally, good habits for decision. The author provides many clarifying illustrations and a handy appendix called "Deliberational Dynamics on Your Personal Computer." His powerful model has important implications for understanding the rational origins of convention and the social contract, the logic of nuclear deterrence, the theory of good habits, and the varied strategies of political and economic behavior.
Author : Bart J. Van Dissel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (114 download)
Download or read book Decision Making and Information Processing Strategies in Dynamic Choice Environments written by Bart J. Van Dissel and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Predecisional Processes in Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jerome R. Busemeyer
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139536486
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)
Download or read book Quantum Models of Cognition and Decision written by Jerome R. Busemeyer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much of our understanding of human thinking is based on probabilistic models. This innovative book by Jerome R. Busemeyer and Peter D. Bruza argues that, actually, the underlying mathematical structures from quantum theory provide a much better account of human thinking than traditional models. They introduce the foundations for modeling probabilistic-dynamic systems using two aspects of quantum theory. The first, 'contextuality', is a way to understand interference effects found with inferences and decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The second, 'quantum entanglement', allows cognitive phenomena to be modeled in non-reductionist ways. Employing these principles drawn from quantum theory allows us to view human cognition and decision in a totally new light. Introducing the basic principles in an easy-to-follow way, this book does not assume a physics background or a quantum brain and comes complete with a tutorial and fully worked-out applications in important areas of cognition and decision.
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author : Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319079867
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Better Decision Making in Complex, Dynamic Tasks written by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-16 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computer simulation-based education and training is a multi-billion dollar industry. With the increased complexity of organizational decision making, projected demand for computer simulation-based decisional aids is on the rise. The objective of this book is to enhance systematically our understanding of and gain insights into the general process by which human facilitated ILEs are effectively designed and used in improving users’ decision making in dynamic tasks. This book is divided into four major parts. Part I serves as an introduction to the subject of “decision making in dynamic tasks”, its importance and its complexity. Part II provides background material, drawing upon the relevant literature, for the development of an integrated process model on the effectiveness of human facilitated ILEs in improving decision making in dynamic tasks. Part III focuses on the design, development and application of Fish Bank ILE, in laboratory experiments, to gather empirical evidence for the validity of the process model. Finally, part IV presents a comprehensive analysis of the gathered data to provide a powerful basis for understating important phenomena of training with human facilitated simulation-based learning environments, thereby, help to drive critical lessons to be learned. This book provides the reader with both a comprehensive understanding of the phenomena encountered in decision making with human facilitated ILEs and a unique way of studying the effects of these phenomena on people’s ability to make better decision in complex, dynamic tasks. This book is intended to be of use to managers and practitioners, researchers and students of dynamic decision making. The background material of Part II provides a solid base to understand and organize the existing experimental research literature and approaches.
Author : Samuel Kotz
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387940375
Total Pages : 678 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (879 download)
Download or read book Breakthroughs in Statistics written by Samuel Kotz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993-06-11 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter Berggren
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1317177991
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)
Download or read book Assessing Command and Control Effectiveness written by Peter Berggren and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-09-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing Command and Control Effectiveness: Dealing with a Changing World offers a description of the current state of Command and Control (C2) research in imperfect settings, showing how a research process should assess, analyse and communicate results to the development cycle of methods, work, manning and C2-technology. Special attention is given to the development of C2 research methods to meet the current and coming needs. The authors also look forward towards a future where effective assessment of C2 abilities are even more crucial, for instance in agile organisations. The purpose of the C2 research is to improve the process and make it more effective while still saving time and money. Research methods have to be chosen carefully to be effective and simple, yet provide results of high quality. The methodological concerns are a major consideration when working under such circumstances. Furthermore, there is often a need for a swift iterative development cycle, and thus a demand to quickly deliver results from the research process. This book explains how field research experimentation can be quick, simple and effective, being able to draw valid conclusions even when sample sizes are small and resources are limited, collecting empirical data using measures and procedures that are minimally intrusive.
Author : Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 9780226348568
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (485 download)
Download or read book Insights in Decision Making written by Robin M. Hogarth and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1990-04-18 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.
Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780195153729
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (537 download)
Download or read book Adaptive Thinking written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2002-03-07 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social.Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.
Author : James Shanteau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461550890
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)
Download or read book Decision Science and Technology written by James Shanteau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
