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Download or read book Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Jonathan J. Adams
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts written by Jonathan J. Adams and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into “news” and “surprise” shocks. We estimate a VAR on US time series using forecast data from the SPF, CBO, Federal Reserve, and asset prices. Unanticipated fiscal stimulus and interest rate shocks we identify have typical effects that match existing evidence. In our news-surprise decomposition, we find that news drives around one quarter of US business cycle volatility. News explains a larger share of the variance due to fiscal shocks than for monetary policy shocks. Finally, we use the news structure of the shocks to estimate counterfactual policy rules, and compare the ability of fiscal and monetary policy to moderate output and inflation. We find that coordinated fiscal and monetary policy are substantially more effective than either tool is individually.
Author : Kristie M. Engemann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? written by Kristie M. Engemann and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nir Jaimovich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle? written by Nir Jaimovich and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous shocks and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral TFP shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and a new form of preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.
Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513590766
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Author : Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Beyond Shocks written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kristie Engemann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence written by Kristie Engemann and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil prices rose sharply prior to the onset of the 2007-2009 recession. Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle turning points generally are not available for other countries, we estimate the turning points together with oil's effect in a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We find that, for most countries, oil shocks do affect the likelihood of entering a recession. In particular, for a constant, zero term spread, an average-sized shock to WTI oil prices increases the probability of recession in the U.S. by nearly 50 percentage points after one year and nearly 90 percentage points after two years.
Author : A. C. Pigou
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315441101
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Industrial Fluctuations written by A. C. Pigou and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rejecting the idea of an equilibrium business cycle, this book, originally published in 1927, studies those industrial fluctuations which extend over short spans of years: cyclical fluctuations. The causes of these cycles are discussed and the consequences which result and way in which to mitigate these consequences with regard to social well-being are examined. Although Pigou’s approach went out of fashion following Keynes, it is similar in spirit to much of the late twentieth-century work stimulated by real business cycle theory.
Author : Tom Zimmermann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (17 download)
Download or read book Identifying News Shocks in Business Cycles written by Tom Zimmermann and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Hammad Qureshi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book News Shocks and Learning-by-Doing written by Hammad Qureshi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea that expectations about future economic fundamentals can drive business cycles dates back to the early 20th century. However, the standard real business cycle (RBC) model fails to generate positive comovement in output, consumption, labor-hours and investment in response to news shocks. This paper proposes a simple and intuitive solution to this puzzling feature of the RBC model, based on a mechanism that has strong empirical support: learning-by-doing (LBD). First, we show that the one-sector RBC model augmented by LBD can generate aggregate comovement in response to news shock about technology. Second, we show that in the two-sector RBC model, LBD along with an intratemporal adjustment cost can generate sectoral comovement in response to news about three types of shocks: i) neutral technology shock, ii) consumption technology shock, and iii) investment technology shock. We show that these results hold for contemporaneous technology shocks and for different specifications of LBD.
Author : Daron Acemoglu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780226002095
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2010-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 address how heterogeneous beliefs interact with equilibrium leverage and potentially lead to leverage cycles, the validity of alternative hypotheses about the reason for the recent increase in foreclosures on residential mortgages, the credit rating crisis, quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, and noisy business cycles.
Author : Thuy Lan Nguyen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (888 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles written by Thuy Lan Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although news shocks are important in explaining the 1980 recession and the 1993-94 boom, they do not explain much of other business cycles in our sample. Moreover, the contribution of news shocks to explaining short run fluctuations is negligible. These results arise because data on expectations show that changes in expectations are not large and do not resemble actual movements of output. Therefore, news shocks cannot be the main driver of business cycles. Chapters Two and Three focus on the driving forces of business cycles in open economies. We start Chapter Two with an observation that business cycles are strongly correlated across countries. We document that this pattern is also true for small open economies between 1900 and 2006 using a novel data set for 17 small developed and developing countries. Furthermore, we provide a new evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies in a structural estimation of a real small open economy model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks.
Download or read book Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wataru Miyamoto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book The Expectational Effects of News in Business Cycles written by Wataru Miyamoto and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes to exploit data on expectations to identify news shocks in business cycles. News shocks work through changes in expectations, so data on expectations contain important information for identification. We demonstrate this by estimating a DSGE model augmented with news shocks using U.S. data between 1955Q1 and 2006Q4. News shocks only generate modest business cycles before fundamental changes. The precision of the estimated news shocks greatly improves when data on expectations are used. These results arise because data on expectations are smooth and do not resemble actual output.
Author : Nadav Ben Zeev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 9 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (956 download)
Download or read book Investment-specific News Dominates TFP News in Driving U.S. Business Cycles written by Nadav Ben Zeev and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
