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Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts
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Book Synopsis Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts? by : Kathryn Brightbill
Download or read book Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts? written by Kathryn Brightbill and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite significant regulatory and academic interest in sell-side analyst forecasts and an extensive literature demonstrating the impact of teamwork in general, we lack evidence of the effect of teamwork on analyst forecasts. In 2005 analyst teams issued nearly three-fourths of analyst reports for a sample of 89 large, heavily followed companies. Over a twelve-year period 86 of those companies had more reports issued by analyst teams than by individual analysts. Using a hand-collected sample of more than 17,000 analyst reports, I document that forecasts issued by analyst teams systematically differ from the forecasts of individual analysts in ways predicted by team literature. I find that prior to the year 2000 analyst teams issue forecasts that are less accurate and more biased than forecasts issued by individual analysts. Beginning in 2000, the relative benefit of analyst teamwork strengthens, consistent with changes due to Regulation Fair Disclosure, brokerage closures, and other regulatory interventions. In addition I find that, within company-year, team-issued forecasts are less pessimistically biased but not less optimistically biased than the forecasts issued by individual analysts. Lastly, the benefits of teamwork vary with the size of the team and over the life of the team, following an inverted u-shaped pattern. My results inform regulators as they consider factors that impact analyst forecast accuracy and bias.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Financial Analysts' Stock Price Forecasts by : Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Analysts' Stock Price Forecasts written by Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams' target price forecast characteristics, analysts' use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts. The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports. In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts' target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts' target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts' target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts' opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis How to Measure Analyst Forecast Effort by : Tanja Klettke
Download or read book How to Measure Analyst Forecast Effort written by Tanja Klettke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behavior for one firm, our measure considers analyst behavior for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasize the importance of investigating analyst behavior in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.
Author :Chaman L. Jain & Jack Malehorn Publisher :Institute of Business Forec ISBN 13 :9780932126757 Total Pages :516 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (267 download)
Book Synopsis Practical Guide to Business Forecasting by : Chaman L. Jain & Jack Malehorn
Download or read book Practical Guide to Business Forecasting written by Chaman L. Jain & Jack Malehorn and published by Institute of Business Forec. This book was released on 2005 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Anticipation, Agency and Complexity by : Roberto Poli
Download or read book Anticipation, Agency and Complexity written by Roberto Poli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a selection of the Proceedings of the Workshop on Anticipation, Agency and Complexity held in Trento (Italy) on April 2017. The contributions contained in the book brilliantly revolve around three core concepts: agency, complexity and anticipation, giving precious insights to further define the discipline of anticipation. In a world that moves increasingly fast, constantly on the verge of disruptive events, more and more scholars and practitioners in any field feel in need of new approaches to make sense of the complexity and uncertainty that the future seems to bear. The theory of anticipation tries to describe how possible futures are intrinsically intertwined with the present.
Book Synopsis Navigating Strategic Decisions by : John E. Triantis
Download or read book Navigating Strategic Decisions written by John E. Triantis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions. Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to: Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.
Book Synopsis Cultures of Expertise in Global Currency Markets by : Leon Wansleben
Download or read book Cultures of Expertise in Global Currency Markets written by Leon Wansleben and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Notwithstanding financial crises, global foreign exchange markets have undergone a tremendous growth during the last two decades. Foreign exchange (FX) is often thought of as a site where economic actors exchange currencies for buying foreign goods or selling goods in foreign countries, but the FX markets are better understood as financial spheres, dominated by speculative actors. A key question is how this huge global speculative sphere has developed, and what maintains it. Thus far, global currency markets have been largely neglected by the new approaches to finance, and until now no study has existed to chart the interplay of their structural evolution and their shape as knowledge spheres. This new book offers a systematic study of FX markets from a knowledge sociological perspective, empirically focussing on analysts within these markets. It makes the argument that market structures are reflected in, and become stabilised by, distinct cultures of financial expertise. These cultures connect the actions and perceptions of loosely coupled, globally distributed market players, and establish shared sets of strategies of how to observe, valuate and invest. This highly original book will be of interest to scholars of economics, sociology and political science, and in particular to all those with an interest in the sociology of finance and the role of finance in the contemporary world.
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Book Synopsis GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide by : Barry Leonard
Download or read book GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide written by Barry Leonard and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-11 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To use public funds effectively, the gov¿t. must meet the demands of today's changing world by employing effective mgmt. practices and processes, including the measurement of gov¿t. program performance. Legislators, gov¿t. officials, and the public want to know whether gov¿t. programs are achieving their goals and what their costs are. To make those evaluations, reliable cost information is required and fed. standards have been issued for the cost accounting that is needed to prepare that information. This Cost Guide has been developed in order to establish a consistent methodology that is based on best practices and that can be used across the fed. gov¿t. for developing, managing, and evaluating capital program cost estimates. Illustrations.
Book Synopsis Rebooting Policy Analysis by : Peter Linquiti
Download or read book Rebooting Policy Analysis written by Peter Linquiti and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2022-01-17 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rebooting Policy Analysis: Strengthening the Foundation, Expanding the Scope is a savvy introduction to policy analysis that gets students thinking, not just about how decisions should be made, but how they are made. The text highlights practical skills needed to advise decision-makers on matters of public policy in ways that are well-informed and solutions-oriented, while managing limitations like time, resources, and information. In a world that has become increasingly complex and partisan, the strength of policy analysis rests not only in its classical academic methods, but on the development of a practical, analytic mindset.
Book Synopsis Firm-specific Information Environment and Analyst Forecast by : Wei Hsu (Ph.D.)
Download or read book Firm-specific Information Environment and Analyst Forecast written by Wei Hsu (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine how firm-specific private and public information affect analyst forecast revisions. I find that when managers easily beat (struggle to meet) the consensus forecasts in the previous quarter, financial analysts revise their earnings forecasts upward (downward). The revision magnitudes are higher when there is more private information. Similarly, I find that when managers provide upward (downward) earnings guidance, analysts revise their forecasts upward (downward) more when there is more private information. In contrast, the revision magnitudes are lower when there is more public information. Additionally, I find that the magnitudes of analysts' downward revisions increase with private information prior to the stock option grant dates. I attribute these results to the analysts' dependence on managers in gleaning relevant private information. The effect of private information is smaller for firms covered by star analysts, consistent with star analysts acting as sophisticated skeptics and being more confident in their forecasts than other analysts. Further, for well-governed firms, upward revisions for positive earnings surprises are smaller when there is more private information. This is consistent with stronger governance attenuating analysts' concerns about firms' earnings quality, which in turn increases their reliance on public earnings numbers and reduces their need to accommodate managers for private information. Finally, I find that private information is negatively associated with target price forecast accuracy, and positively associated with target price forecast optimism. These results suggest that greater information asymmetry adversely affects forecast accuracy and creates incentives for analysts to appease managers to access private information.
Book Synopsis The New CEO Corporate Leadership Manual by : Steven M. Bragg
Download or read book The New CEO Corporate Leadership Manual written by Steven M. Bragg and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-05-04 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ultimate instruction manual for every new CEO The New CEO Corporate Leadership Manual is essential reading for every CEO needing a blueprint for the role of CEO, including an overview of organizational structure, corporate strategy, management systems and finance. Along with considerable information about the financial systems needed for a modern corporation, with particular emphasis on funds management, going public, and dealing with investors, this important book explains how to select acquisition targets, price them appropriately, and successfully integrate them, as well as how to turn around a failing enterprise. Gives new CEOs a hard, quantitative view of the systems and techniques needed to run a company Discusses the CEO's place in the corporation Explores information technology strategy, tax strategy, outsourcing strategy and more Filled with pragmatic insights, proactive strategies, and best practices, The New CEO Corporate Leadership Manual is destined to become the desktop companion you employ to be successful in your new position.
Book Synopsis Machine Learning Engineering in Action by : Ben Wilson
Download or read book Machine Learning Engineering in Action written by Ben Wilson and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2022-04-26 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Field-tested tips, tricks, and design patterns for building machine learning projects that are deployable, maintainable, and secure from concept to production. In Machine Learning Engineering in Action, you will learn: Evaluating data science problems to find the most effective solution Scoping a machine learning project for usage expectations and budget Process techniques that minimize wasted effort and speed up production Assessing a project using standardized prototyping work and statistical validation Choosing the right technologies and tools for your project Making your codebase more understandable, maintainable, and testable Automating your troubleshooting and logging practices Ferrying a machine learning project from your data science team to your end users is no easy task. Machine Learning Engineering in Action will help you make it simple. Inside, you’ll find fantastic advice from veteran industry expert Ben Wilson, Principal Resident Solutions Architect at Databricks. Ben introduces his personal toolbox of techniques for building deployable and maintainable production machine learning systems. You’ll learn the importance of Agile methodologies for fast prototyping and conferring with stakeholders, while developing a new appreciation for the importance of planning. Adopting well-established software development standards will help you deliver better code management, and make it easier to test, scale, and even reuse your machine learning code. Every method is explained in a friendly, peer-to-peer style and illustrated with production-ready source code. About the technology Deliver maximum performance from your models and data. This collection of reproducible techniques will help you build stable data pipelines, efficient application workflows, and maintainable models every time. Based on decades of good software engineering practice, machine learning engineering ensures your ML systems are resilient, adaptable, and perform in production. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the book Machine Learning Engineering in Action teaches you core principles and practices for designing, building, and delivering successful machine learning projects. You’ll discover software engineering techniques like conducting experiments on your prototypes and implementing modular design that result in resilient architectures and consistent cross-team communication. Based on the author’s extensive experience, every method in this book has been used to solve real-world projects. What's inside Scoping a machine learning project for usage expectations and budget Choosing the right technologies for your design Making your codebase more understandable, maintainable, and testable Automating your troubleshooting and logging practices About the reader For data scientists who know machine learning and the basics of object-oriented programming. About the author Ben Wilson is Principal Resident Solutions Architect at Databricks, where he developed the Databricks Labs AutoML project, and is an MLflow committer. Table of Contents PART 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING ENGINEERING 1 What is a machine learning engineer? 2 Your data science could use some engineering 3 Before you model: Planning and scoping a project 4 Before you model: Communication and logistics of projects 5 Experimentation in action: Planning and researching an ML project 6 Experimentation in action: Testing and evaluating a project 7 Experimentation in action: Moving from prototype to MVP 8 Experimentation in action: Finalizing an MVP with MLflow and runtime optimization PART 2 PREPARING FOR PRODUCTION: CREATING MAINTAINABLE ML 9 Modularity for ML: Writing testable and legible code 10 Standards of coding and creating maintainable ML code 11 Model measurement and why it’s so important 12 Holding on to your gains by watching for drift 13 ML development hubris PART 3 DEVELOPING PRODUCTION MACHINE LEARNING CODE 14 Writing production code 15 Quality and acceptance testing 16 Production infrastructure
Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : Robert M. Clark
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Robert M. Clark and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2022-08-09 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its Seventh Edition, Robert M. Clark′s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis in both introductory and advanced courses—including new case studies and a look at advances in the field.
Book Synopsis Executing Data Quality Projects by : Danette McGilvray
Download or read book Executing Data Quality Projects written by Danette McGilvray and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Executing Data Quality Projects, Second Edition presents a structured yet flexible approach for creating, improving, sustaining and managing the quality of data and information within any organization. Studies show that data quality problems are costing businesses billions of dollars each year, with poor data linked to waste and inefficiency, damaged credibility among customers and suppliers, and an organizational inability to make sound decisions. Help is here! This book describes a proven Ten Step approach that combines a conceptual framework for understanding information quality with techniques, tools, and instructions for practically putting the approach to work – with the end result of high-quality trusted data and information, so critical to today’s data-dependent organizations. The Ten Steps approach applies to all types of data and all types of organizations – for-profit in any industry, non-profit, government, education, healthcare, science, research, and medicine. This book includes numerous templates, detailed examples, and practical advice for executing every step. At the same time, readers are advised on how to select relevant steps and apply them in different ways to best address the many situations they will face. The layout allows for quick reference with an easy-to-use format highlighting key concepts and definitions, important checkpoints, communication activities, best practices, and warnings. The experience of actual clients and users of the Ten Steps provide real examples of outputs for the steps plus highlighted, sidebar case studies called Ten Steps in Action. This book uses projects as the vehicle for data quality work and the word broadly to include: 1) focused data quality improvement projects, such as improving data used in supply chain management, 2) data quality activities in other projects such as building new applications and migrating data from legacy systems, integrating data because of mergers and acquisitions, or untangling data due to organizational breakups, and 3) ad hoc use of data quality steps, techniques, or activities in the course of daily work. The Ten Steps approach can also be used to enrich an organization’s standard SDLC (whether sequential or Agile) and it complements general improvement methodologies such as six sigma or lean. No two data quality projects are the same but the flexible nature of the Ten Steps means the methodology can be applied to all. The new Second Edition highlights topics such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, Internet of Things, security and privacy, analytics, legal and regulatory requirements, data science, big data, data lakes, and cloud computing, among others, to show their dependence on data and information and why data quality is more relevant and critical now than ever before. Includes concrete instructions, numerous templates, and practical advice for executing every step of The Ten Steps approach Contains real examples from around the world, gleaned from the author’s consulting practice and from those who implemented based on her training courses and the earlier edition of the book Allows for quick reference with an easy-to-use format highlighting key concepts and definitions, important checkpoints, communication activities, and best practices A companion Web site includes links to numerous data quality resources, including many of the templates featured in the text, quick summaries of key ideas from the Ten Steps methodology, and other tools and information that are available online
Download or read book Earth System Monitor written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
