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Detecting Scapegoat Effects In The Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Macroeconomic Fundamentals
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Book Synopsis Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals by : Lorenzo Pozzi
Download or read book Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Lorenzo Pozzi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. First, the exchange rate risk premium, the unobserved time-varying structural impact of the macro fundamentals on the exchange rate and the unobserved fundamental of the model are estimated. Next, the scapegoat terms in the model's exchange rate equation are estimated under the restrictions implied by these first-step estimates. The scapegoat terms consist of macro fundamentals, i.e., potential scapegoats, interacted with parameter expectations, where the latter are proxied using survey data. We use a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach to estimate the different steps of the methodology for eight countries (five developed, three emerging) versus the US over the period 2002Q1-2014Q4. The macro fundamentals we consider are real GDP growth, the inflation rate, the long-run nominal interest rate and the current account to GDP ratio. We calculate the posterior probabilities that these macro fundamentals are scapegoats. For the inflation rate, these probabilities are considerably higher than the imposed prior probabilities of 0.5 in five out of eight countries (including the Anglo-Saxon economies). We find little evidence to suggest that the other macro fundamentals we consider are scapegoats"--Abstract, p. ii.
Book Synopsis How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market by : Nicholas Mangee
Download or read book How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market written by Nicholas Mangee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis The Globalization Paradox by : Dani Rodrik
Download or read book The Globalization Paradox written by Dani Rodrik and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2012-05-17 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a century, economists have driven forward the cause of globalization in financial institutions, labour markets, and trade. Yet there have been consistent warning signs that a global economy and free trade might not always be advantageous. Where are the pressure points? What could be done about them? Dani Rodrik examines the back-story from its seventeenth-century origins through the milestones of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Washington Consensus, to the present day. Although economic globalization has enabled unprecedented levels of prosperity in advanced countries and has been a boon to hundreds of millions of poor workers in China and elsewhere in Asia, it is a concept that rests on shaky pillars, he contends. Its long-term sustainability is not a given. The heart of Rodrik’s argument is a fundamental 'trilemma': that we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. Give too much power to governments, and you have protectionism. Give markets too much freedom, and you have an unstable world economy with little social and political support from those it is supposed to help. Rodrik argues for smart globalization, not maximum globalization.
Book Synopsis Historical Dictionary of the IMF by : Norman K. Humphreys
Download or read book Historical Dictionary of the IMF written by Norman K. Humphreys and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-06-28 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IMF economists work closely with member countries on a variety of issues. Their unique perspective on country experiences and best practices on global macroeconomic issues are often shared in the form of books on diverse topics such as cross-country comparisons, capacity building, macroeconomic policy, financial integration, and globalization.
Book Synopsis Exchange-Rate Dynamics by : Martin D. D. Evans
Download or read book Exchange-Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Book Synopsis Stabilizing an Unstable Economy by : Hyman P. Minsky
Download or read book Stabilizing an Unstable Economy written by Hyman P. Minsky and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mr. Minsky long argued markets were crisis prone. His 'moment' has arrived.” -The Wall Street Journal In his seminal work, Minsky presents his groundbreaking financial theory of investment, one that is startlingly relevant today. He explains why the American economy has experienced periods of debilitating inflation, rising unemployment, and marked slowdowns-and why the economy is now undergoing a credit crisis that he foresaw. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy covers: The natural inclination of complex, capitalist economies toward instability Booms and busts as unavoidable results of high-risk lending practices “Speculative finance” and its effect on investment and asset prices Government's role in bolstering consumption during times of high unemployment The need to increase Federal Reserve oversight of banks Henry Kaufman, president, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc., places Minsky's prescient ideas in the context of today's financial markets and institutions in a fascinating new preface. Two of Minsky's colleagues, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Ph.D. and president, The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and L. Randall Wray, Ph.D. and a senior scholar at the Institute, also weigh in on Minsky's present relevance in today's economic scene in a new introduction. A surge of interest in and respect for Hyman Minsky's ideas pervades Wall Street, as top economic thinkers and financial writers have started using the phrase “Minsky moment” to describe America's turbulent economy. There has never been a more appropriate time to read this classic of economic theory.
Book Synopsis Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy by : Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2008 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization by : Mr.Michael Mussa
Download or read book The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization written by Mr.Michael Mussa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.
Book Synopsis Private Participation in Infrastructure in Developing Countries by : Clive Harris
Download or read book Private Participation in Infrastructure in Developing Countries written by Clive Harris and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments have long recognized the vital role that modern infrastructure services play in economic growth and poverty alleviation. For much of the post-Second World War period, most governments entrusted delivery of these services to state-owned monopolies. But in many developing countries, the results were disappointing. Public sector monopolies were plagued by inefficiency. Many were strapped for resources because governments succumbed to populist pressures to hold prices below costs. Fiscal pressures, and the success of the pioneers of the privatization of infrastructure services, provided governments with a new paradigm. Many governments sought to involve the private sector in the provision and financing of infrastructure services. The shift to the private provision that occurred during the 1990s was much more rapid and widespread than had been anticipated at the start of the decade. By 2001, developing countries had seen over $755 billion of investment flows in nearly 2500 infrastructure projects. However, these flows peaked in 1997, and have fallen more or less steadily ever since. These declines have been accompanied by high profile cancellations or renegotiations of some projects, a reduction in investor appetite for these activities and, in some parts of the world, a shift in public opinion against the private provision of infrastructure services. The current sense of disillusionment stands in stark contrast to what should in retrospect be surprise at the spectacular growth of private infrastructure during the 1990s.
Book Synopsis Good Economics for Hard Times by : Abhijit V. Banerjee
Download or read book Good Economics for Hard Times written by Abhijit V. Banerjee and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2019-11-12 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The winners of the Nobel Prize show how economics, when done right, can help us solve the thorniest social and political problems of our day. Figuring out how to deal with today's critical economic problems is perhaps the great challenge of our time. Much greater than space travel or perhaps even the next revolutionary medical breakthrough, what is at stake is the whole idea of the good life as we have known it. Immigration and inequality, globalization and technological disruption, slowing growth and accelerating climate change--these are sources of great anxiety across the world, from New Delhi and Dakar to Paris and Washington, DC. The resources to address these challenges are there--what we lack are ideas that will help us jump the wall of disagreement and distrust that divides us. If we succeed, history will remember our era with gratitude; if we fail, the potential losses are incalculable. In this revolutionary book, renowned MIT economists Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo take on this challenge, building on cutting-edge research in economics explained with lucidity and grace. Original, provocative, and urgent, Good Economics for Hard Times makes a persuasive case for an intelligent interventionism and a society built on compassion and respect. It is an extraordinary achievement, one that shines a light to help us appreciate and understand our precariously balanced world.
Book Synopsis Inventing the Future by : Nick Srnicek
Download or read book Inventing the Future written by Nick Srnicek and published by Verso Books. This book was released on 2015-11-17 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This major new manifesto offers a “clear and compelling vision of a postcapitalist society” and shows how left-wing politics can be rebuilt for the 21st century (Mark Fisher, author of Capitalist Realism) Neoliberalism isn’t working. Austerity is forcing millions into poverty and many more into precarious work, while the left remains trapped in stagnant political practices that offer no respite. Inventing the Future is a bold new manifesto for life after capitalism. Against the confused understanding of our high-tech world by both the right and the left, this book claims that the emancipatory and future-oriented possibilities of our society can be reclaimed. Instead of running from a complex future, Nick Srnicek and Alex Williams demand a postcapitalist economy capable of advancing standards, liberating humanity from work and developing technologies that expand our freedoms. This new edition includes a new chapter where they respond to their various critics.
Book Synopsis Remittance Markets in Africa by : Sanket Mohapatra
Download or read book Remittance Markets in Africa written by Sanket Mohapatra and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Remittances sent by African migrants have become an important source of external finance for countries in the Sub-Saharan African region. In many African countries, these flows are larger than foreign direct investment and portfolio debt and equity flows. In some cases, they are similar in size to official aid from multilateral and bilateral donors. Remittance markets in Africa, however, remain less developed than other regions. The share of informal or unrecorded remittances is among the highest for Sub-Saharan African countries. Remittance costs tend to be significantly higher in Africa both for sending remittances from outside the region and for within-Africa (South-South) remittance corridors. At the same time, the remittance landscape in Africa is rapidly changing with the introduction of new remittance technologies, in particular mobile money transfers and branchless banking. This book presents findings of surveys of remittance service providers conducted in eight Sub-Saharan African countries and in three key destination countries. It looks at issues relating to costs, competition, innovation and regulation, and discusses policy options for leveraging remittances for development in Africa.
Book Synopsis New Economy Handbook by : Derek C. Jones
Download or read book New Economy Handbook written by Derek C. Jones and published by Emerald Group Pub Limited. This book was released on 2003 with total page 1118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The information technology boom of the 1990s stoked a New Economy characterized by surging output per worker but with hard-to-measure and vulnerable underpinnings. This collection of essays aims to offer a thorough investigation of the New Economy.
Download or read book Divine Currency written by Devin Singh and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-10 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how early economic ideas structured Christian thought and society, giving crucial insight into why money holds such power in the West. Examining the religious and theological sources of money's power, it shows how early Christian thinkers borrowed ancient notions of money and economic exchange from the Roman Empire as a basis for their new theological arguments. Monetary metaphors and images, including the minting of coins and debt slavery, provided frameworks for theologians to explain what happens in salvation. God became an economic administrator, for instance, and Christ functioned as a currency to purchase humanity's freedom. Such ideas, in turn, provided models for pastors and Christian emperors as they oversaw both resources and people, which led to new economic conceptions of state administration of populations and conferred a godly aura on the use of money. Divine Currency argues that this longstanding association of money with divine activity has contributed over the centuries to money's ever increasing significance, justifying various forms of politics that manage citizens along the way. Devin Singh's account sheds unexpected light on why we live in a world where nothing seems immune from the price mechanism.
Book Synopsis US-China Economic Relations by : Ha Jiming
Download or read book US-China Economic Relations written by Ha Jiming and published by Peterson Institute for International Economics. This book was released on 2019-04-25 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outright trade war between the world’s two largest economies would be devastating to the working people of both countries, as well as destructive to the future of the entire world economy. The costs of conflict between China and the United States far outweigh the current causes of dispute in their economic relationship. These costs would be both direct, in terms of short-term losses of growth and employment, and indirect, in terms of long-term damage to the world trading system, diminishing investment and efficiency. There are points of genuine dispute between the United States and China over their economic interaction. Even if their economic significance is often exaggerated, these are legitimate points of contention and have to be addressed in a constructive manner. The analyses in this volume aim to contribute to a more reality-based consideration of both countries’ enlightened self-interests, which would yield progress on points of dispute in a manner consistent with keeping the world economy open for business.
Book Synopsis Financial Crisis Management and Democracy by : Bettina De Souza Guilherme
Download or read book Financial Crisis Management and Democracy written by Bettina De Souza Guilherme and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book discusses financial crisis management and policy in Europe and Latin America, with a special focus on equity and democracy. Based on a three-year research project by the Jean Monnet Network, this volume takes an interdisciplinary, comparative approach, analyzing both the role and impact of the EU and regional organizations in Latin America on crisis management as well as the consequences of crisis on the process of European integration and on Latin America’s regionalism. The book begins with a theoretical introduction, exploring the effects of the paradigm change on economic policies in Europe and in Latin America and analyzing key systemic aspects of the unsustainability of the present economic system explaining the global crises and their interconnections. The following chapters are divided into sections. The second section explores aspects of regional governance and how the economic and financial crises were managed on a macro level in Europe and Latin America. The third and fourth sections use case studies to drill down to the impact of the crises at the national and regional levels, including the emergence of political polarization and rise in populism in both areas. The last section presents proposals for reform, including the transition from finance capitalism to a sustainable real capitalism in both regions and at the inter-regional level of EU-LAC relations.The volume concludes with an epilogue on financial crises, regionalism, and domestic adjustment by Loukas Tsoukalis, President of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP). Written by an international network of academics, practitioners and policy advisors, this volume will be of interest to researchers and students interested in macroeconomics, comparative regionalism, democracy, and financial crisis management as well as politicians, policy advisors, and members of national and regional organizations in the EU and Latin America.
