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Demographic Uncertainty And Fiscal Policy
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Book Synopsis Demographic Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy by :
Download or read book Demographic Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy written by and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2006 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters. This paper analyses the economic, intergenerational and welfare effects of several alternative taxation policies that can be used to close the fiscal sustainability gap: immediate tax smoothing, delayed tax smoothing and balanced budget policies. A distinction is made between a consumption tax and a labour income tax. In addition, the influence of demographic uncertainty on the results of these policies is analysed from a number of perspectives. Simulated population shocks show the effect of demographic volatility on macroeconomic and fiscal variables. Stochastic simulations are presented to produce probabilistic bounds for the future development of the economic outcomes and to analyse the issue of optimal fiscal policy under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by : Juha M. Alho
Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Communications Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344755 Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Demographic Change and Economic Well-Being by : International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Download or read book Demographic Change and Economic Well-Being written by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-15 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the role of fiscal policy and demographics. By the end of this century, about two-thirds of all countries are expected to have declining populations. This will have profound implications for economics, financial markets, social stability, and geopolitics. Fiscal policy responses and technological innovation are especially important parts of the solution. Without action, public pension and health systems will not be sustainable over the long term. The increase in life expectancy and economic welfare that came with the industrial revolution brought with it the seeds of demographic change. This is a demographic double whammy that will have major implications for economic growth, financial stability, and the public purse. With declining fertility rates, populations in some advanced economies did not just grow more slowly; they stagnated or began to shrink. IMF analysis suggests that, if everyone lived three years longer than expected, pension related costs could increase by 50 percent in both advanced and emerging economies. This would heavily affect private and public sector balance sheets and could also undermine financial stability.
Book Synopsis The Great Demographic Reversal by : Charles Goodhart
Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Book Synopsis Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy by : Alan J. Auerbach
Download or read book Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy written by Alan J. Auerbach and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-02-26 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analyses the effect of changing demography in the US and elsewhere on tax revenues and public programmes.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Prefunding in Response to Demographic Uncertainty by :
Download or read book Fiscal Prefunding in Response to Demographic Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations by : Mr.Benedict J. Clements
Download or read book The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations written by Mr.Benedict J. Clements and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-26 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by : Juha Alho
Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha Alho and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty in demographic forecasting.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Implications of Demographic Uncertainty by :
Download or read book Fiscal Implications of Demographic Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts by : Mr.David Amaglobeli
Download or read book How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts written by Mr.David Amaglobeli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?
Book Synopsis The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations by :
Download or read book The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform---starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council
Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Book Synopsis The Puzzle of the American Economy by : Mark A. Pisano
Download or read book The Puzzle of the American Economy written by Mark A. Pisano and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2017-03-09 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how sweeping demographic changes have resulted in the ineffectiveness of recent monetary and fiscal policies, and it identifies corrective actions that will start to reverse the trends of low economic growth and widespread government deficits. The field of demographics does not focus on the economic impacts and the funding issues resulting from demographic change. Similarly, economics does not take into account demographic changes. The omissions in both fields are negatively impacting the nation: income reductions caused by demographic changes that have not been accounted for are so large that current fiscal policies are not able to mitigate them. The Puzzle of the American Economy: How Changing Demographics Will Affect Our Future and Influence Our Politics exposes the factors that are undermining the nation's prospects for improving the rate of economic growth and keeping up with citizens' needs for government-provided services. Author Mark A. Pisano explains the hidden drag on the economy that has led to the ineffectiveness of recent monetary and fiscal policies, how uncertainty in economic policymaking is affecting America politically as well as at the individual household level, and why those who are adversely impacted are becoming politically disaffected. He also presents an agenda for corrective individual action. Readers will understand how the results of changes in demographics will last for decades and extend beyond the United States to many developed countries—particularly Japan and nations in Europe—as well as to some developing countries. The book will be of value to students studying macro and micro economics; those in public policy at all levels of government, public administration, and governmental budgeting; and anyone attempting to understand the current dilemma in economic policymaking and our disjointed political process.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Public Finances in the Netherlands by : Alex M. Armstrong
Download or read book The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Public Finances in the Netherlands written by Alex M. Armstrong and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344658 Total Pages :257 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Book Synopsis Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century by : Peter S. Heller
Download or read book Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century written by Peter S. Heller and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-05 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of "shocks," and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity by : Richard Hemming
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
