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Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty by : Robert J. Lempert
Download or read book Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty written by Robert J. Lempert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the munitions mix challenge, to demonstrate how RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Book Synopsis Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND developed new methods that urged sketching the no-surprises future, listing known branch-style uncertainties, and stretching the imagination to envision potential shocks, good or bad (e.g., Soviet Union disintegration or Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait). Major surprises will nonetheless occur, and some of RAND's most important work on uncertainty has to do with coping with surprise developments. RAND's progress in national security uncertainty analysis benefited from a confluence of developments in computer and software technology, theory and practice in strategic planning and decisionmaking, analytic theory and methods, and theory of complex adaptive systems. Work has emphasized facing up to deep uncertainty in many dimensions, performing exploratory analysis of "the possibility space," identifying regions of that space that pose special risks or opportunities, finding options to improve capabilities, and using portfolio analysis to conceive and compare strategic options for economically dealing with the diversity of challenges. A cross-cutting RAND theme is finding flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies. Ultimately, different problems call for different approaches to uncertainty. If the theory of planning under uncertainty and preparing to cope with surprise effectively is difficult and complex, this report makes clear that implementing and maintaining corresponding changes is even more difficult and suggests that policymakers to be constantly vigilant in ensuring that related initiatives are not undercut or allowed to wither."--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis Strategy and Defence Planning by : Colin S. Gray
Download or read book Strategy and Defence Planning written by Colin S. Gray and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.
Book Synopsis New Challenges for Defense Planning by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book New Challenges for Defense Planning written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1994 with total page 769 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This definitive study on defense planning in the new era covers alternative strategies and structures for post-Cold War defense planning and planning under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Strategy-to-Task Resource Management by : Tamas S. Gaspar
Download or read book Strategy-to-Task Resource Management written by Tamas S. Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current defense planning methods do not ensure a direct connection between national security objectives and military tasks. The Strategy-to-Task method provides a framework for solving this deficiency by establishing a hierarchy, starting from national objectives, through military objectives and missions to military tasks. Below these tasks, performance standards can be used for estimating the utility of a given task. This hierarchical approach helps decision-makers understand these important linkages. It could also serve as a framework for prioritizing the different tasks and contribute to better resource allocation, by analyzing different alternatives in a multi-attribute space. There are two decision-supporting methods for setting up priorities within this hierarchy of multi-attribute objectives. The first one, Multi-Attribute Utility Function Analysis, is a useful method for cases when performance standards can easily be established. This method could be used under both certainty and uncertainty and can address dependence and independence among the attributes or their utilities. The second method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, could be used in cases when performance standards are difficult to establish as is typically the case in the higher levels of the hierarchy. The hierarchical approach and the two methods are illustrated through the case of Hungary's participation in NATO peace-operations.
Book Synopsis New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking by : Stuart E. Johnson
Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-03-31 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe
Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Book Synopsis Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Book Synopsis Defence Planning and Uncertainty by : Stephan Frühling
Download or read book Defence Planning and Uncertainty written by Stephan Frühling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
Book Synopsis U.S. Defense Planning by : John M Collins
Download or read book U.S. Defense Planning written by John M Collins and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Superior defense plans fuse political, economic, military, technological, and sociological power in ways that cover state interests, while conserving resources to the greatest prudent extent. Poor products can increase costs without reducing risks, because forces and funds that support slipshod schemes often fail to furnish security. This critical appraisal of the U.5. defense planning system seeks to serve a five-fold purpose: set assessment standards, appraise U.S. planning in principle, appraise U.5. planning in practice, identify U.S. planning problems and present optional courses of corrective action. The study shows how domestic and foreign policy inputs from the White House, National 5ecurity Council, and State Department affect defense planning.
Book Synopsis Defence Planning as Strategic Fact by : Henrik Breitenbauch
Download or read book Defence Planning as Strategic Fact written by Henrik Breitenbauch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defence Planning as Strategic Fact provides and elaborates on an "upstream" focus on the variegated organizational, political and conceptual practices of military, civilian administrative and political leaderships involved in defence planning, offering an important security and strategic studies supplement to the traditional "downstream" focus on the use of force. The book enables the reader to engage with the role of ideas in defence planning, of organizational processes and biases, path dependencies and administrative dynamics under the pressures of continuously changing domestic and international constraints. The chapters show how defence planning must be seen as a constitutive element of defence and strategic studies – that it is a strategic fact of its own which merits particular practical and scholarly attention. As defence planning creates the conditions behind every peace upheld or broken and every war won or lost, Defence Planning as Strategic Fact will be of great use to scholars of defence studies, strategic studies, and military studies. This book was originally published as a special issue of Defence Studies.
Book Synopsis U.S. Civil-military Relations by : Don M. Snider
Download or read book U.S. Civil-military Relations written by Don M. Snider and published by CSIS. This book was released on 1995 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era written by Paul K. Davis and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1993 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study describes a new approach to defense planning that would better integrate strategic, programmatic, and operations planning. The study recommends new methods of analysis that are well suited to planning under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Defense Planning in a Decade of Change by : Eric Victor Larson
Download or read book Defense Planning in a Decade of Change written by Eric Victor Larson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2001 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The end of the Cold War ushered in an era of profound change in the international arena and hence in the policymaking environment as well. Yet the changes that have characterized the post-Cold War era have often proceeded at different paces and have at times moved in opposing directions, placing unprecedented strain on policymakers seeking to shape a new national security and military strategy. This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade: the 1990 Base Force, the 1993 Bottom-Up Review, and the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review. The report focuses on the assumptions, decisions, and outcomes associated with these reviews as well as the planning and execution of each. It concludes that all three reviews fell short of fully apprehending the demands of the emerging threat environment, and the budgets that would be needed and afforded, resulting in a growing imbalance between strategy, forces, and resources over the decade. Accordingly, the report recommends that future defense planners adopt an assumption-based approach in which key planning assumptions are continually reassessed with a view toward recognizing--and rapidly responding to--emerging gaps and shortfalls.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process by : Michael J. Mazarr
Download or read book The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process written by Michael J. Mazarr and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes the current defense planning process used by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a focus on how scenarios are developed and employed to support defense planning.
Book Synopsis Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era written by Paul K. Davis and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1993 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study describes a new approach to defense planning that would better integrate strategic, programmatic, and operations planning. The study recommends new methods of analysis that are well suited to planning under uncertainty.
