Decision Making And The Temporal Resolution Of Uncertainty

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Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

Author : Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814417351
Total Pages : 941 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making by : Leonard C. MacLean

Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Uncertain Decisions

Author : Luigi Luini
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792383918
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (839 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Decisions by : Luigi Luini

Download or read book Uncertain Decisions written by Luigi Luini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk

Author : Louis Eeckhoudt
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829216
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk by : Louis Eeckhoudt

Download or read book Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk written by Louis Eeckhoudt and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-30 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An understanding of risk and how to deal with it is an essential part of modern economics. Whether liability litigation for pharmaceutical firms or an individual's having insufficient wealth to retire, risk is something that can be recognized, quantified, analyzed, treated--and incorporated into our decision-making processes. This book represents a concise summary of basic multiperiod decision-making under risk. Its detailed coverage of a broad range of topics is ideally suited for use in advanced undergraduate and introductory graduate courses either as a self-contained text, or the introductory chapters combined with a selection of later chapters can represent core reading in courses on macroeconomics, insurance, portfolio choice, or asset pricing. The authors start with the fundamentals of risk measurement and risk aversion. They then apply these concepts to insurance decisions and portfolio choice in a one-period model. After examining these decisions in their one-period setting, they devote most of the book to a multiperiod context, which adds the long-term perspective most risk management analyses require. Each chapter concludes with a discussion of the relevant literature and a set of problems. The book presents a thoroughly accessible introduction to risk, bridging the gap between the traditionally separate economics and finance literatures.

Experiments in decision-making under Risk

Author : Michał Wiktor Krawczyk
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 903610145X
Total Pages : 171 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (361 download)

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Book Synopsis Experiments in decision-making under Risk by : Michał Wiktor Krawczyk

Download or read book Experiments in decision-making under Risk written by Michał Wiktor Krawczyk and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U.S. Agriculture

Author : Richard E. Just
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475735839
Total Pages : 580 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U.S. Agriculture by : Richard E. Just

Download or read book A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U.S. Agriculture written by Richard E. Just and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.

The Economics of Risk and Time

Author : Christian Gollier
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572248
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Risk and Time by : Christian Gollier

Download or read book The Economics of Risk and Time written by Christian Gollier and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updates and advances the theory of expected utility as applied to risk analysis and financial decision making.

Applications Of Dynamic Programming To Agricultural Decision Problems

Author : C. Robert Taylor
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429703082
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)

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Book Synopsis Applications Of Dynamic Programming To Agricultural Decision Problems by : C. Robert Taylor

Download or read book Applications Of Dynamic Programming To Agricultural Decision Problems written by C. Robert Taylor and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles which provide examples that demonstrate the application of dynamic programming to a wide variety of decision problems in agriculture.

Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics

Author :
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0080964524
Total Pages : 1056 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics by :

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics written by and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-03-29 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every decision about energy involves its price and cost. The price of gasoline and the cost of buying from foreign producers; the price of nuclear and hydroelectricity and the costs to our ecosystems; the price of electricity from coal-fired plants and the cost to the atmosphere. Giving life to inventions, lifestyle changes, geopolitical shifts, and things in-between, energy economics is of high interest to Academia, Corporations and Governments. For economists, energy economics is one of three subdisciplines which, taken together, compose an economic approach to the exploitation and preservation of natural resources: energy economics, which focuses on energy-related subjects such as renewable energy, hydropower, nuclear power, and the political economy of energy resource economics, which covers subjects in land and water use, such as mining, fisheries, agriculture, and forests environmental economics, which takes a broader view of natural resources through economic concepts such as risk, valuation, regulation, and distribution Although the three are closely related, they are not often presented as an integrated whole. This Encyclopedia has done just that by unifying these fields into a high-quality and unique overview. The only reference work that codifies the relationships among the three subdisciplines: energy economics, resource economics and environmental economics. Understanding these relationships just became simpler! Nobel Prize Winning Editor-in-Chief (joint recipient 2007 Peace Prize), Jason Shogren, has demonstrated excellent team work again, by coordinating and steering his Editorial Board to produce a cohesive work that guides the user seamlessly through the diverse topics This work contains in equal parts information from and about business, academic, and government perspectives and is intended to serve as a tool for unifying and systematizing research and analysis in business, universities, and government

Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications

Author : Ward Edwards
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401129525
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications by : Ward Edwards

Download or read book Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications written by Ward Edwards and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.

Introduction to the Law and Economics of Environmental Policy

Author : T. Swanson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0762308885
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to the Law and Economics of Environmental Policy by : T. Swanson

Download or read book Introduction to the Law and Economics of Environmental Policy written by T. Swanson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2002-08-15 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An Introduction to the Law and Economics of Environmental Policy" emphasises the importance of institutional design in addressing social problems. Three important issues concerning institutional design are: policies, instruments, and enforcement. This volume surveys each of the issues, and emphasises the common themes arising in optimal institutional design. These themes include the cost of complex institutional design, and the role of private institutions attaining social objects. This book will be particularly useful to law schools, departments of government, policy or economics, environmental managers and insurance companies.

Noncognitive Skills and Their Development

Author : William N. Evans
Publisher : Univ of Wisconsin Press
ISBN 13 : 0299237532
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis Noncognitive Skills and Their Development by : William N. Evans

Download or read book Noncognitive Skills and Their Development written by William N. Evans and published by Univ of Wisconsin Press. This book was released on 2010-03 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These articles include recent research on ways to incorporate the noncognitive side of ability in economic theory and to empirically assess and explain its role in labor market and behavioral outcomes. Contributions investigate the extent to which assignment of workers is determined by traditional cognitive variables and by personality traits. Also presented in this collection is research on the role of noncognitive skills in explaining the labor market position of underrepresented groups and research that integrates the economic and psychological theory and evidence on noncognitive skills.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : David E. Bell
Publisher : Thomson South-Western
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : David E. Bell

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.

A Guide to Modern Economics

Author : Michael Bleaney
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134761503
Total Pages : 563 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (347 download)

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Book Synopsis A Guide to Modern Economics by : Michael Bleaney

Download or read book A Guide to Modern Economics written by Michael Bleaney and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1996-07-04 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work provides a valuable review of the most important developments in economic theory and application over the last decade. Comprising twenty-seven specially commissioned overviews, the volume presents a comprehensive and student-friendly guide to contemporary economics. Previously published by Routledge as part of the Companion to Contemporary Economic Thought, these essays are made available here for the first time in a concise paperback edition. A Guide to Modern Economics will be a valuable guide to all those who wish to familiarize themselves with the most recent developments in the discipline.

Valuing Ecosystem Services

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030909318X
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Ecosystem Services by : National Research Council

Download or read book Valuing Ecosystem Services written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-05-14 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nutrient recycling, habitat for plants and animals, flood control, and water supply are among the many beneficial services provided by aquatic ecosystems. In making decisions about human activities, such as draining a wetland for a housing development, it is essential to consider both the value of the development and the value of the ecosystem services that could be lost. Despite a growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services, their value is often overlooked in environmental decision-making. This report identifies methods for assigning economic value to ecosystem servicesâ€"even intangible onesâ€"and calls for greater collaboration between ecologists and economists in such efforts.

Handbook of Environmental Economics

Author : Karl-Goran Maler
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080457495
Total Pages : 647 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Environmental Economics by : Karl-Goran Maler

Download or read book Handbook of Environmental Economics written by Karl-Goran Maler and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2005-12-09 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much applied environmental economics is concerned with the valuation of changes in environmental quality. Obtaining reliable valuation estimates requires attention to theoretical and econometric issues that are often quite subtle. Volume 2 of the Handbook of Environmental Economics presents both the theory and the practice of environmental valuation. It synthesizes the vast literature that has accumulated since the publication of the Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics two decades ago. It includes chapters on individual valuation methods written by researchers responsible for fundamental advances in those methods. It also includes cross-cutting chapters that deal with aspects of welfare theory, uncertainty, experimental methods, and public health that are pertinent to valuation. Throughout the volume, attention is paid to research and policy issues that arise not only in high-income countries, where most of the theory and econometrics that underlie applied valuation methods have been developed, but also in poorer parts of the world. The volume provides a state-of-the-art reference for scholars and practitioners alike.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.