Current Oil Market Developments and their Impacts on the Gulf Cooperation Council

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Author :
Publisher : Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research
ISBN 13 : 9948245458
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (482 download)

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Book Synopsis Current Oil Market Developments and their Impacts on the Gulf Cooperation Council by : The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research

Download or read book Current Oil Market Developments and their Impacts on the Gulf Cooperation Council written by The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research and published by Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current Oil Market Developments and Their Impacts on the GCC comes at a time when global oil markets are witnessing substantial change. Oil prices have fluctuated from unprecedented highs to free falling by the end of 2008, and experiencing another steep drop by 2014. Other dramatic changes include a surge in global oil supply, weakness in demand (partly caused by slow growth in emerging countries), exploitation of oil shale, advancements in oil-extraction technology, and the emergence of renewable and clean energy sources. These developments have all impacted oil markets in particular and the global economy in general. In addressing the topic, this book consists of four chapters that examine these developments in depth to determine their implications and potential effects, suggesting recommendations that will serve the goals and development objectives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and beyond. It focuses on global oil supply and demand, geopolitical factors related to the Russian–Ukrainian crisis, potential Iranian–Western convergence, and the implications of all these factors on both GCC and global energy markets. Its chapters examine issues such as the latest energy market developments and challenges to conventional oil supply. The developments detailed require constant monitoring to safeguard global energy security and serve development goals around the world. While the GCC has great interest in oil-related issues, the countries are also planning for the future by simultaneously working on establishing diversified, knowledge-based economies that are less dependent on conventional resources.

The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513525905
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region by : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev

Download or read book The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484355660
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models by : Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh

Download or read book Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models written by Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.

Gulf Cooperation Council

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498346197
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.

Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-14 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC)

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781484383315
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) by : Samya Beidas-Strom

Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by . This book was released on 2011-10-02 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498341136
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global and regional economic environment remains challenging. Global growth remains tepid, and although some pick-up is expected, risks are tilted to the downside. Recent volatility in financial markets is having a significant impact on some large emerging markets, highlighting the challenges that will be faced in unwinding the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East are also high.

Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf

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Author :
Publisher : Chatham House (Formerly Riia)
ISBN 13 : 9781862032910
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (329 download)

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Book Synopsis Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf by : Glada Lahn

Download or read book Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf written by Glada Lahn and published by Chatham House (Formerly Riia). This book was released on 2015-07-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The waste of oil and gas in the Gulf erodes economic resilience and increases security risks. This is the first report to offer practical recommendations that address the key challenges of governance, political commitment, and market incentives from the perspectives of member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE).

Economic Diversification in the GCC

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498303234
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Diversification in the GCC by : Mr.Tim Callen

Download or read book Economic Diversification in the GCC written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589065107
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead by : Ms.May Y Khamis

Download or read book Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead written by Ms.May Y Khamis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-21 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.

Oil, Industrialization & Development in the Arab Gulf States (RLE Economy of Middle East)

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317592948
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (175 download)

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Book Synopsis Oil, Industrialization & Development in the Arab Gulf States (RLE Economy of Middle East) by : Atif Kubursi

Download or read book Oil, Industrialization & Development in the Arab Gulf States (RLE Economy of Middle East) written by Atif Kubursi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-05-15 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Were oil supplies everlasting and the demand for oil strong and continuous, economic diversification in the Gulf would be pointless. However oil reserves are finite and non-renewable and the world demand for oil from the Gulf region is simply not stable. Collectively the countries of the Gulf face the striking prospect that unless priorities and plans are set with care the gestation period of their economic development may be longer than the expected life of their hydrocarbon resources. This book examines just that threat. It considers the opportunities available to the Gulf states for accumulating sufficient productive capital in the non-oil sectors of their economy to offset the drawing down of oil reserves. The book pays particular attention to the possibilities of development through cooperation not only within the Gulf Cooperation Council but also within the larger Arab region and the Third World as a whole. It concludes with a critical review of the main challenges that these economies are facing and are likely to face in the near future with special emphasis on their major problems and failures. First published in 1984.

Stress Testing at the IMF

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513520741
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811560587
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries by : Héla Miniaoui

Download or read book Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries written by Héla Miniaoui and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-26 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book delves into the economic development of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Since the 1960s, the GCC states have harnessed their potential to exploit the wealth accrued from the oil boom to build their infrastructure and grow their economies. However, the high level of dependency on oil as the primary source feeding their output made their economies volatile and vulnerable to fluctuations in the global oil prices. Moreover, the plunge in oil prices and the threat of depletion of this natural resource pose serious challenges to the GCC countries. Consequently, the GCC governments have realized the importance of diversifying their economies following the need to move away from reliance on hydrocarbon. This book contributes to the theoretical literature by enriching the debate on the transition of the GCC countries from rentier states to diversified economies. It helps students and scholars understand this transformation with an expansive comprehension of the contemporary challenges facing the region, as well as outlining prospects for the future.

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357227X
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr. Aasim M. Husain

Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr. Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Policy Challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557755827
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (558 download)

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Book Synopsis Policy Challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Policy Challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-05-23 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face important policy challenges and opportunities. This paper covers the economic developments and policies since 1980; the impact of the GCC's external environment; the medium-term economic prospects; the broad outlines of a common adjustment and reform strategy, and the implications of adjustment in the GCC countries on the rest of the Middle East and North Africa region.

When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable?

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811557284
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable? by : Giacomo Luciani

Download or read book When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable? written by Giacomo Luciani and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-30 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Volatile international oil markets and the acceleration of the energy transition has challenged the notion that oil revenues are sufficient to sustain oil economies in the near to medium term. But what is the meaning of economic sustainability? The book discusses the multiple dimensions of the concept: economic diversification, continuing value of resources, taxation and fiscal development, labor market sustainability, sustainable income distribution, environmental sustainability, political order (democracy or authoritarianism) and sustainability, regional integration. The overarching message in this book is that we should move on from the simplistic branding of the Gulf economies as unsustainable and tackle the details of which adaptations they might need to undertake.

Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513520482
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil by : Mr.Martin Sommer

Download or read book Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil written by Mr.Martin Sommer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.