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Communicating Uncertainties In Weather And Climate Information
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Book Synopsis Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information by : National Research Council
Download or read book Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-01-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making" by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making" written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-02-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Book Synopsis Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making : Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 Report by :
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making : Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making by : M. Granger Morgan
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Book Synopsis Climate Change in the Media by : James Painter
Download or read book Climate Change in the Media written by James Painter and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientists and politicians are increasingly using the language of risk to describe the climate change challenge. Some researchers have argued that stressing the 'risks' posed by climate change rather than the 'uncertainties' can create a more helpful context for policy makers and a stronger response from the public. However, understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty - and how to communicate them - is a hotly debated issue. In this book, James Painter analyses how the international media present these and other narratives surrounding climate change. He focuses on the coverage of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and of the melting ice of the Arctic Sea, and includes six countries: Australia, France, India, Norway, the UK and the USA.
Book Synopsis Making Climate Forecasts Matter by : National Research Council
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Book Synopsis Climate Risk in Africa by : Declan Conway
Download or read book Climate Risk in Africa written by Declan Conway and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.
Book Synopsis The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring by : National Research Council
Download or read book The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-02-25 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR) of the National Weather Service (NWS) was a large and complex re-engineering of a federal agency. The process lasted a decade and cost an estimated $4.5 billion. The result was greater integration of science into weather service activities and improved outreach and coordination with users of weather information. The MAR created a new, modernized NWS, and, significantly, it created a framework that will allow the NWS to keep up with technological changes in a more evolutionary manner. The MAR was both necessary and generally well executed. However, it required revolutionary, often difficult, changes. The procurement of large, complex technical systems presented challenges in and of itself. The MAR also affected the career paths and personal lives of a large portion of the field office workforce. The MAR created a new, modernized NWS, and, significantly, it created a framework that will allow the NWS to keep up with technological changes in a more evolutionary manner. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring presents the first comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR and its impact on the provision of weather services in the United States. This report provides an assessment that addresses the past modernization as well as lessons learned to support future improvements to NWS capabilities.
Book Synopsis Communicating Weather and Climate Uncertainty by : Jared LeClerc
Download or read book Communicating Weather and Climate Uncertainty written by Jared LeClerc and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vast improvements in weather prediction, such as the ability to calculate precise and reliable estimates of weather uncertainty, would theoretically help members of the public make important decisions related to weather risks, but the extent to which non-expert end-users understand forecast uncertainty information remains unclear. A small body of recent research suggests that, contrary to the implications of much past research in cognitive psychology, non-experts can make effective use of probabilistic uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts. The research reported here uses an experimental framework to expand upon those findings to explore the scope of the benefits of inclusion of uncertainty estimates in forecasts. Several uncertainty expressions were tested in a variety of hypothetical settings using laboratory decision tasks based on real-world weather- and climate-related decision situations. Results consistently suggested that non-experts made better weather- and climate-related decisions when forecasts and projections included uncertainty estimates, although some expressions of uncertainty were more effective in some situations than in others. This research also explores effects of forecast error, false alarm effects, and trust. It adds to the growing body of research about how to effectively communicate weather- and climate-related risk, with results that might generalize to other domains in which non-experts make difficult decisions when faced with uncertainty. The research adds to our understanding of basic psychology, as it explores such concepts as framing, perception of the likelihood of rare events, and the role of decision feedback.
Book Synopsis Fair Weather by : National Research Council
Download or read book Fair Weather written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-05-14 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decades of evolving U.S. policy have led to three sectors providing weather servicesâ€"NOAA (primarily the National Weather Service [NWS]), academic institutions, and private companies. This three-sector system has produced a scope and diversity of weather services in the United States second to none. However, rapid scientific and technological change is changing the capabilities of the sectors and creating occasional friction. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services examines the roles of the three sectors in providing weather and climate services, the barriers to interaction among the sectors, and the impact of scientific and technological advances on the weather enterprise. Readers from all three sectors will be interested in the analysis and recommendations provided in Fair Weather.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309380979 Total Pages :187 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Book Synopsis Urban Meteorology by : National Research Council
Download or read book Urban Meteorology written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-06-13 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the United Nations, three out of five people will be living in cities worldwide by the year 2030. The United States continues to experience urbanization with its vast urban corridors on the east and west coasts. Although urban weather is driven by large synoptic and meso-scale features, weather events unique to the urban environment arise from the characteristics of the typical urban setting, such as large areas covered by buildings of a variety of heights; paved streets and parking areas; means to supply electricity, natural gas, water, and raw materials; and generation of waste heat and materials. Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and Meeting Users' Needs is based largely on the information provided at a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop. This book describes the needs for end user communities, focusing in particular on needs that are not being met by current urban-level forecasting and monitoring. Urban Meteorology also describes current and emerging meteorological forecasting and monitoring capabilities that have had and will likely have the most impact on urban areas, some of which are not being utilized by the relevant end user communities. Urban Meteorology explains that users of urban meteorological information need high-quality information available in a wide variety of formats that foster its use and within time constraints set by users' decision processes. By advancing the science and technology related to urban meteorology with input from key end user communities, urban meteorologists can better meet the needs of diverse end users. To continue the advancement within the field of urban meteorology, there are both short-term needs-which might be addressed with small investments but promise large, quick returns-as well as future challenges that could require significant efforts and investments.
Book Synopsis Communicating Climate Change Information for Decision-Making by : Silvia Serrao-Neumann
Download or read book Communicating Climate Change Information for Decision-Making written by Silvia Serrao-Neumann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-20 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides important insight on a range of issues focused on three themes; what new climate change information is being developed, how that knowledge is communicated and how it can be usefully applied across international, regional and local scales. There is increasing international investment and interest to develop and communicate updated climate change information to promote effective action. As change accelerates and planetary boundaries are crossed this information becomes particularly relevant to guide decisions and support both proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies. Developing new information addresses innovations in producing interdisciplinary climate change knowledge and overcoming issues of data quality, access and availability. This book examines effective information systems to guide decision-making for immediate and future action. Cases studies in developed and developing countries illustrate how climate change information promotes immediate and future actions across a range of sectors.
Book Synopsis Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change by : National Research Council
Download or read book Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-12-07 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change is one of America's most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity-especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change-is affecting global average temperatures, snow and ice cover, sea-level, ocean acidity, growing seasons and precipitation patterns, ecosystems, and human health. Climate-related decisions are being carried out by almost every agency of the federal government, as well as many state and local government leaders and agencies, businesses and individual citizens. Decision makers must contend with the availability and quality of information, the efficacy of proposed solutions, the unanticipated consequences resulting from decisions, the challenge of implementing chosen actions, and must consider how to sustain the action over time and respond to new information. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, a volume in the America's Climate Choices series, describes and assesses different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated responses. It discusses who is making decisions (on the local, state, and national levels), who should be providing information to make decisions, and how that information should be provided. It covers all levels of decision making, including international, state, and individual decision making. While most existing research has focused on the physical aspect of climate change, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change employs theory and case study to describe the efforts undertaken so far, and to guide the development of future decision-making resources. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change offers much-needed guidance to those creating public policy and assists in implementing that policy. The information presented in this book will be invaluable to the research community, especially social scientists studying climate change; practitioners of decision-making assistance, including advocacy organizations, non-profits, and government agencies; and college-level teachers and students.
Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
