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Commodity Prices And The New Inflation
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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and the New Inflation by : Barry Bosworth
Download or read book Commodity Prices and the New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-09-14 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the model. Commodity price levels tend to be cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Commodity price movements contribute weakly to predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States by : Oya Celasun
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-10-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Book Synopsis Predicting Inflation with Commodity Prices by : Peter von zur Muehlen
Download or read book Predicting Inflation with Commodity Prices written by Peter von zur Muehlen and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation by : James M. Boughton
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation written by James M. Boughton and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the large industrial countries. It begins by developing a two-country model in order to examine the theoretical effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on commodity and manufactures prices and on exchange rates. It is shown that if monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Non-monetary shocks generally weaken these relationships, but such disturbances may cancel out for broad indexes covering a wide range of commodities. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. The weights assigned to different commodities vary substantially across countries. Nonetheless, when the indexes are expressed in a common currency, they tend to be highly correlated over time, except when sharp movements occur in certain commodity prices. The major source of contrast across countries in the behavior of the indexes derives from exchange rate movements. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the theoretical model, with relatively few differences across countries. Three main tendencies may be cited. First, low inflation in industrial countries has tended to be associated with low levels of commodity prices, and conversely; commodity-price levels are cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Second, there has been some tendency for movements in commodity prices to precede changes in general inflation rates by a few months, although it is not clear whether this tendency is strong enough to be a reliable aid in forecasting the rate of inflation. Third, there s a strong and fairly reliable tendency for turning points in general inflation rates. Commodity prices thus appear to contribute to predictions of turning points in inflation, predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation by : James M. Boughton
Download or read book Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by James M. Boughton and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different cross sections of countries are tested or when different regression variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US inflation, and—depending on the subset of countries analyzed—monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices.
Book Synopsis Consumers and Food Price Inflation by : Randy Schnepf
Download or read book Consumers and Food Price Inflation written by Randy Schnepf and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-08 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The heightened commodity price volatility of 2008 and 2010 and the subsequent acceleration in U.S. food price inflation associated with those market shifts generated questions about farm and food price movements. This report addresses the nature and measurement of retail food price inflation. Contents of this report: Intro.; Consumer Demand; The Consumer Price Index (CPI); Consumer Income and Expenditures; Recent Food Price Inflation; Federal Spending for Domestic Food Assistance Programs: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly Food Stamps); Child Nutrition; The WIC Program; Additional Commodity Assistance Programs; Foreign Food Aid. Charts and tables. A print on demand report.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation by : James M. Boughton
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation written by James M. Boughton and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the model. Commodity price levels tend to be cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Commodity price movements contribute weakly to predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States by : Oya Celasun
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States written by Oya Celasun and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation by :
Download or read book Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis U.S. Inflation and Commodity Prices by : A. (Tassos) G. Malliaris
Download or read book U.S. Inflation and Commodity Prices written by A. (Tassos) G. Malliaris and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews both theoretical and empirical issues regarding inflation and evaluates the contribution of Kyrtsou and Labys. Analytically it is very difficult to propose a general theory of inflation because as economies evolve over time both new causes of inflation emerge and the consequences of inflation become more complex. Kyrtsou and Labys perform several tests between the Primary Commodity Price component of the PPI and the CPI and construct a noisy chaotic multivariate model that describes the relationship between these two measures of inflation.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices, Wages and US Inflation in the 20th Century by : Harry Bloch
Download or read book Commodity Prices, Wages and US Inflation in the 20th Century written by Harry Bloch and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498338453 Total Pages :63 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
