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Commodity Prices And Exchange Rate Volatility
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Book Synopsis The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes by : Ms.Hong Liang
Download or read book The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes written by Ms.Hong Liang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-12-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relationship between the nominal exchange rate regime and the volatility of relative commodity prices. The analysis shows that the relationship depends upon both the market structure and the economic agent’s perception about future exchange rate movements. When the markets for manufactured goods are less competitive than the markets for primary commodities, the volatility of relative commodity prices rises when exchange rate uncertainty increases. If demand for manufactured goods is intertemporally dependent, even a small increase in exchange rate uncertainty can result in potentially large costs in terms of increased relative commodity price instability.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Primary Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Paul Kofman
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Paul Kofman and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices by : Meher Manzur
Download or read book Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices written by Meher Manzur and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the key issues relating to links between exchange rate instability and domestic inflation, including real exchange rate and interest rate manifestations, and the co-variability of exchange rates and commodity prices. The common theme throughout is the behaviour of asset prices and interest rates in international markets. A number of interrelated questions regarding the interactions of exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices are posed: Why is purchasing power parity invariably controversial? Despite overwhelming evidence that sterilised central bank interventions are impotent, why do major industrialised countries (such as the G-7) continue to look for accords to stem exchange rate volatility? Why are the currencies of resource-based economies depreciating when the commodity prices are holding up? Has the link between exchange rates and commodity prices collapsed? In a world of increasing globalisation, why are interest rate movements so poorly correlated across countries? New insights to these and other fundamental questions in international finance are provided by way of empirical analyses. Whilst there remains much that is little understood, the conclusions concerning the validity of the theory of purchasing power parity are becoming more and more reliable. This book is a must-read for graduate students, researchers and lecturers interested in finance, economics or business. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Commodity Prices will also appeal to policymakers.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Book Synopsis Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices by : Dominique Y. Dupont
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices written by Dominique Y. Dupont and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and quot;staticquot; and quot;rationalquot; expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.
Book Synopsis Primary Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Paul Kofman
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Paul Kofman and published by . This book was released on with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? by : Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Download or read book What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of which—the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate—explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.
Book Synopsis Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data by : Gilles Dufrénot
Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements
Download or read book Currencies, Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Choices with Inflexible Markets and Costly Price Adjustments by : Tara Iyer
Download or read book Exchange Rate Choices with Inflexible Markets and Costly Price Adjustments written by Tara Iyer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the appropriate choice of an exchange rate regime in agricultural commodity-exporting economies. In an open economy model that incorporates key structural characteristics of agricultural commodity exporters including dual labor markets, the benefits of exchange rate flexibility are shown to depend on the extent of labor and product market development. With developed markets, flexible exchange rates are preferred as they allow for greater relative price fluctuations, which amplify the transmission mechanism of labor reallocation upon commodity price volatility. When labor and product markets are not welldeveloped, however, international relative price adjustments exacerbate currency and factor misalignments. A nominal exchange rate peg, by mitigating relative wage and price fluctuations, increases welfare relative to a float. Given the current low level of labor and product market development across most agricultural commodity exporters, the study provides a counterpoint to conventional arguments in favor of flexible exchange rates and a rationale as to why exchange rate targeting is appropriate in agricultural economies.
Author :Isabelle Piot-Lepetit Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :1441976345 Total Pages :238 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (419 download)
Book Synopsis Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility by : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility Before and After the Float by : Muammer Wali
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility Before and After the Float written by Muammer Wali and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a descriptive analysis of broad features of major exchange rates since the early 1970s and compares these features with those of the 1960s. The analysis is then extended to investigate whether these features are manifested in interest rates and in commodity prices. The results indicate that while the exchange rates have become more volatile during the current floating rate regime, the moments are comparable with those for interest rates and commodity prices.
Download or read book Surprise, Surprise written by Nasha Maveé and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China.
Book Synopsis Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices by : Dominique Yves Dupont
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices written by Dominique Yves Dupont and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-04 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and “static” and “rational” expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment by : Jacob A. Frenkel
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment written by Jacob A. Frenkel and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze several proposals for reducing the volatility and/or misalignment of key-currency exchange rates. The proposals examined are a system of target zones, the imposition of controls or taxes on international capital flows, and a strengthening of international coordination over economic policies. We also review key characteristics of the behavior of major-currency exchange rates over the period of floating rates and examine the various criteria or standards for drawing inferences about excess volatility and misalignment. In evaluating exchange rate volatility, attention is directed toward the influence of the exchange rate regime, to the behavior of fundamentals, to the volatility of both goods prices and other asset prices, to the costs of exchange rate volatility, and to the nature of shocks facing the economy. Turning to misalignment, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of the purchasing-power-parity approach, of the underlying balance approach, and of the sustainability approach. We argue that inferences about excess exchange rate volatility and misalignment are subject to wide margins of error and that the exchange rate experience of the past 15 years is subject to multiple interpretations.
