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Commodity Price Shocks And The Odds On Fiscal Performance
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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance by : Francis Y. Kumah
Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance written by Francis Y. Kumah and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-09-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance by : Francis Y. Kumah
Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance written by Francis Y. Kumah and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility by : Mr.Tidiane Kinda
Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility written by Mr.Tidiane Kinda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.
Book Synopsis The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Priceson Fiscal Performance in Latin America by : Leandro Medina
Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Priceson Fiscal Performance in Latin America written by Leandro Medina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies by : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman
Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-13 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting by : Burcu Aydin
Download or read book Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting written by Burcu Aydin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuations in South Africa in a cross-country context, and studies the impact of the output gap by controlling for export intensity, the debt burden, asset prices, and banking crises. Results show that South Africa’s revenue performance was outstanding during the mid-2000s, and the recent decline in revenue was one of the least among the emerging and advanced markets. Results on the elasticity of tax revenue show that South Africa’s elasticity is higher during business upturns, indicating good prospects for recovering the revenue lost during the global financial crisis.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa by : Burcu Aydin
Download or read book Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa written by Burcu Aydin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in tax bases. Change in the credit to private sector also has some affect on the revenue performance; however, asset and commodity prices are not significant in explaining the deviation of revenue from its trend. Nonetheless, quantitative effects of these prices are subject to assumptions used for long-run price levels.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-exporting Countries by : Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-exporting Countries written by Aasim M. Husain and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Book Synopsis Problems of Economic Transition by :
Download or read book Problems of Economic Transition written by and published by . This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 804 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Download or read book Economic Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economic Aspects of the Energy Sector in CIS Countries by : CASE (Organization : Warsaw, Poland)
Download or read book The Economic Aspects of the Energy Sector in CIS Countries written by CASE (Organization : Warsaw, Poland) and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Literature survey - 3. Energy sector and its macroeconomic importance in CIS - 4. Key macroeconomic issues related to energy sector functioning - 5. CIS role for the EU energy supply - 6. Strategies and policy options for the energy sector development in the CIS region.
Download or read book Artha Suchi written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Periodicals Index written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 2892 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
